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Michael E. Newton Profile picture
Michael E. Newton
@MichaelENewton1
Quant / systematic diversified futures trader. Historian/author: "Discovering Hamilton" "Alexander Hamilton: The Formative Years" "The Path To Tyranny" Etc.
Nov 5, 2018 • 10 tweets • 11 min read
The Democrats whittled away at more of the GOP gains vs 2016 as a number of states (AZ, CO, OR) counted a weekend’s worth of mail-in ballots. What we see now is nearly final as most states have ended #earlyvoting and few mail-in ballots remain.
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018 The #Republican share of votes cast so far is +0.80% vs 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.07%. In total, the Rep-Dem margin vs 2016 is R+0.87%. So the GOP is doing ~153K early votes better in these 13 states than they did in 2016.
#MAGA #Election2018
Nov 5, 2018 • 8 tweets • 9 min read
#Earlyvoting update:
The #Republican share of votes cast so far is +0.96% vs 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.05%. In total, the Rep-Dem margin vs 2016 is R+1.01%. So the GOP is ~170k early votes better in these 13 states than they did in 2016.
#MAGA #Election2018 #Republicans have lifted their share of the vote from 2016 in 9 of the 13 states. #Democrats have done so in just 7 of the 13. Net, the distribution of votes have moved in the #GOP’s favor in 8 states; to the #Dems in 5.
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018
Nov 5, 2018 • 8 tweets • 9 min read
#Earlyvoting update:
The #Republican share of votes cast so far is +1.0% vs 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.1%. In total, the Rep-Dem margin vs 2016 is R+1.10%. So the GOP is doing ~184k early votes better in these 13 states than they did in 2016.
#MAGA #Election2018 #Republicans have lifted their share of the vote from 2016 in 9 of the 13 states. #Democrats have done so in just 7 of the 13. Net, the distribution of votes have moved in the #GOP’s favor in 8 states; to the #Dems in 5.
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018
Nov 4, 2018 • 11 tweets • 8 min read
People keep asking me about the Democrats doing well recently in #earlyvoting because they are catching up in my "Change in Rep-Dem vs 2016." This isn't true. The Dems are not doing well. Let me explain...
#MAGA #election2018 If the Republicans do 10 points better than the Dems in the "Change in Rep-Dem vs 2016" in the first million votes but then the Reps and Dems tie in the second million, the result moves from R+10% to R+5%.
#MAGA #election2018 #earlyvoting
Nov 4, 2018 • 9 tweets • 10 min read
#Earlyvoting update:
The #Republican share of the votes cast so far is +1.3% against the “final” 2016 results and +0.7% against the corresponding date in 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.2% in the “final” data and +0.2% in the “daily.”
#MAGA #Election2018 In total, the Rep-Dem margin in #earlyvoting vs 2016 is R+1.5% in the “final” data set and R+0.5% from 2016 in the “daily” data set. In other words, the GOP is doing about 243k early votes better in these 13 states than they did in 2016.
#MAGA #Election2018