The Democrats whittled away at more of the GOP gains vs 2016 as a number of states (AZ, CO, OR) counted a weekend’s worth of mail-in ballots. What we see now is nearly final as most states have ended #earlyvoting and few mail-in ballots remain.

#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

The #Republican share of votes cast so far is +0.80% vs 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.07%. In total, the Rep-Dem margin vs 2016 is R+0.87%. So the GOP is doing ~153K early votes better in these 13 states than they did in 2016.

#MAGA #Election2018

#MAGA #Election2018

#Republicans have lifted their share of the vote from 2016 in 9 of the 13 states. #Democrats have done so in just 7 of the 13. Net, the distribution of votes have moved in the #GOP’s favor in 7 states; to the #Dems in 6.

#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

#Earlyvoting update:

The #Republican share of votes cast so far is +0.96% vs 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.05%. In total, the Rep-Dem margin vs 2016 is R+1.01%. So the GOP is ~170k early votes better in these 13 states than they did in 2016.

#MAGA #Election2018

The #Republican share of votes cast so far is +0.96% vs 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.05%. In total, the Rep-Dem margin vs 2016 is R+1.01%. So the GOP is ~170k early votes better in these 13 states than they did in 2016.

#MAGA #Election2018

#Republicans have lifted their share of the vote from 2016 in 9 of the 13 states. #Democrats have done so in just 7 of the 13. Net, the distribution of votes have moved in the #GOP’s favor in 8 states; to the #Dems in 5.

#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

The final large batch of votes came in from Florida (a few more will trickle in today & tomorrow) and again favored the Democrats, as expected. As a result, the GOP-Dem margin decreased 0.09% since yesterday and 0.29% over the last 24 hours.

#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

#Earlyvoting update:

The #Republican share of votes cast so far is +1.0% vs 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.1%. In total, the Rep-Dem margin vs 2016 is R+1.10%. So the GOP is doing ~184k early votes better in these 13 states than they did in 2016.

#MAGA #Election2018

The #Republican share of votes cast so far is +1.0% vs 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.1%. In total, the Rep-Dem margin vs 2016 is R+1.10%. So the GOP is doing ~184k early votes better in these 13 states than they did in 2016.

#MAGA #Election2018

#Republicans have lifted their share of the vote from 2016 in 9 of the 13 states. #Democrats have done so in just 7 of the 13. Net, the distribution of votes have moved in the #GOP’s favor in 8 states; to the #Dems in 5.

#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

The votes continue to roll in from Florida and they continue to favor the Democrats, as expected. As a result, the GOP-Dem margin decreased 0.10% since this afternoon and 0.42% over the last 24 hours.

#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

People keep asking me about the Democrats doing well recently in #earlyvoting because they are catching up in my "Change in Rep-Dem vs 2016." This isn't true. The Dems are not doing well. Let me explain...

#MAGA #election2018

#MAGA #election2018

If the Republicans do 10 points better than the Dems in the "Change in Rep-Dem vs 2016" in the first million votes but then the Reps and Dems tie in the second million, the result moves from R+10% to R+5%.

#MAGA #election2018 #earlyvoting

#MAGA #election2018 #earlyvoting

That doesn't mean the Dems did better. In fact, the Republicans help their lead. But with a larger denominator, the Republicans no longer have the same percentage gain despite having the same nominal gain.

#MAGA #election2018 #earlyvoting

#MAGA #election2018 #earlyvoting

#Earlyvoting update:

The #Republican share of the votes cast so far is +1.3% against the “final” 2016 results and +0.7% against the corresponding date in 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.2% in the “final” data and +0.2% in the “daily.”

#MAGA #Election2018

The #Republican share of the votes cast so far is +1.3% against the “final” 2016 results and +0.7% against the corresponding date in 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.2% in the “final” data and +0.2% in the “daily.”

#MAGA #Election2018

In total, the Rep-Dem margin in #earlyvoting vs 2016 is R+1.5% in the “final” data set and R+0.5% from 2016 in the “daily” data set. In other words, the GOP is doing about 243k early votes better in these 13 states than they did in 2016.

#MAGA #Election2018

#MAGA #Election2018

#Republicans have lifted their share of the vote from 2016 in 9 or the 13 states. #Democrats have done so in just 7 of the 13. Net, the distribution of votes have moved in the #GOP’s favor in 8 states; to the #Dems in 5.

#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018

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