As our new Munich Security Index, based on representative surveys in all G7 countries, shows, #Russia's invasion of Ukraine has dramatically altered public risk perceptions. A🧵... 1/8 Perhaps unsurprisingly, #Russia is now the top risk in all G7 countries, apart from Italy, while #Ukraine is seen much more positively than in November. Absolute majorities in all G7 countries believe that “we are entering a new Cold War with Russia.” 2/8

Next weekend, #G7 leaders will meet for their summit at Schloss Elmau. @SophEisentraut & I have written a new @MunSecConf Brief - including a special edition of the Munich Security Index, based on a representative survey in 🇨🇦🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇯🇵🇬🇧🇺🇸 and powered by @KekstCNC. (📸: @_LSimon) #Zeitenwende is not just a German phenomenon. Except for Canada, people in all G7 countries agree that the invasion of #Ukraine is a turning point for their country's foreign and security policy.

How will #NATO's posture change in response to Russia's invastion of #Ukraine (and statements threatening NATO members)? What is clear already: Putin has forced NATO to massively invest in its infrastructure and strengthen its posture on the eastern flank. 1/7 With his actions, Putin will eventually bring substantial NATO forces to Russia's borders - something that he has warned of for many years (remember his complaints about NATO infrastructure moving closer to Russia) and that many NATO members also tried to avoid. 2/7

It’s time for my traditional train Twitter thread after @MunSecConf. As our Chairman @ischinger said, we’re all tired now. But the most important thing is that we had a weekend of vivid debates!

https://twitter.com/ischinger/status/1229057819120427009?s=20

#MSC2020 I’m glad that the title of our #MSCreport – #Westlessness – triggered some of them. We think of the MSR as a conversation starter for the conference, and it worked well this year – in particular because some thought it accurately described the zeitgeist, and others disagreed.

On my way home from #MSC2019 - and reflecting on the debates, speeches and informal meetings of the past four days in Munich. Let me share my very personal summary - w/ a focus on the transatlantic partnership. Last year, I was quite pessimistic...

https://twitter.com/tobiasbunde/status/965320827112738816?lang=de

1/ So let me start with a bit of good news. In our #MSCreport, we asked who would pick up the pieces of a disintegrating global order. At least rhetorically, the Europeans and representatives of other like-minded liberal democracies have underlined their willingness to step up. 2/

Although I suggest you all download our new #MSCreport (-> securityconference.de/en/publication…) and read it - let me walk you through some of its main arguments and illustrations. Some of you might remember Gramsci's famous description of the inter-war "interregnum": 1/n "The crisis consists," Gramsci wrote, "precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this #interregnum a great variety of morbid symptons appear." Well, that seems like an apt description of today's world. 2/n

On my way home from #MSC2018 - and even more worried than before. When people who don't spend much time with world politics ask whether it is as bad as the media say I now respond: No, it's actually worse. First, the world has seen a frightening amount of brinkmanship recently. Whether it's East Asia, the Middle East or even Eastern Europe - there is an increased risk of escalation. Many speeches at #MSC2018 have underscored this - in many cases, they added fuel to the fire.