Speculative fiction writer and translator tweeting about writing, books, ideas. Psychologist by training. Former strategic management consultant.
Mar 26, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD #Coronavirus Now they say the best strategy is social distancing and test-test-test, but on March 4, Walter Ricciardi, Italian member of #WHO, said Italy, which was testing everyone, overreacted. “Germany and France don't scare the people." Source: Italian newspapers 1/4
So Italy started testing *symptomatic people only.* Recently, the Head of Civil Protection, Angelo Borrelli, admitted that only 1 case out of 10 is being recorded (interview with Repubblica). Massimo Galli, Head of Infectious Diseases at Sacco Hospital Milan, agrees (Rai3). 2/4
In almost all age groups, more men die of Covid-19 than women.
In 68,3% of cases, there is at least one preexisting pathology (cardiovascular, respiratory, diabetes, immunodeficiency, metabolic syndrome, cancer, obesity, kidney disease or other chronic pathologies).
The strict measures taken to flatten the curve will likely be visible in a few days.
26,062 *active* cases (+2989 yesterday) - Total 31,506 confirmed cases from the outbreak
2,941 recovered (+192)
2,503 deaths (+345)
Mar 14, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The mortality rate in #Italy is 5.8% --higher in men. The mean (not the median) of the deceased's age is 80 years--5 years higher than the mean of total cases.
2d report by ISS (Istituto Superiore della Sanità - Rome) #COVIDー19#COVID19
TABLES HERE:
epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bo…
Women are 28.4% of the deceased. The median for women is 84.2 years– for men, 80.3. More dead women than men over 90, for demographic reasons (more women are >90 in general).
Mortality rises sharply after 70 years
2 deaths of patients under 40--both with preexisting conditions
Mar 11, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
THREAD: #COVID19#Lombardy, where the concentration of confirmed cases is higher, the hospitalized are (compared to the previous days):
3,852/3,319/2,802/2,217/1,661
with a progression of 500 a day--not exponential, yet, but it could become so tomorrow.
In #Lombardy, among the hospitalized #COVID19 patients
38% are 64 to 75 years old;
20% over 75;
32% are 50-64;
9% are 25-49;
1% are 18-24 years old.
Mar 10, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD 03/10 Letter to outlets owners: “[…] Only by closing all stores, bars and restaurants can we hope to defeat the virus and start again as soon as possible by limiting the damage to our businesses, as well as protecting ourselves, our employees and our families. . .
. . .We are, however, wasting too much time and this drastic measure, which is now being insistently requested by the experts, is slow in coming from the authorities. . .
According to the data released today by the ISS (Istituto Superiore della Sanità), the average age of deceased patients is 81 years. @DemFromCT@DrLindaMD@smoysey@DrPascalMeier
There are 20 years of difference between the average age of the deceased and that of virus-positive patients. Most of the deaths - 42.2% - occurred in the age group 80 to 89 years; 32.4% of the deaths 70-79; 8.4% 60-69; 2.8% 50-59 and 14.1% over 90 years of age.
Feb 28, 2020 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
THREAD: 821 infected (NOT "confirmed cases*), 21 deaths (elderly people with preexisting conditions) and 46 recovered. Italy has been aggressively screening thousands of suspected cases, and the official data released consist of POSITIVES. #CoronaVirusUpdates#CoronaVirusitaly
In this context, the definition of "confirmed case" is a case that shows the symptoms of Covid-19 AND has come out positive in a laboratory test (a tampon, usually tested by a local hospital, and then confirmed by ONE unique centralized laboratory--this process takes a few days).
