It would be weird if a political sociologist in N.Ireland didn't have something to say about the #NIcensus2021 results released today, wouldn't it?!
& a pity if there weren't slides to go along with those comments...

So, here we are, a thread of nine.
1/9
nisra.gov.uk/publications/c… NI population is up, more households with fewer people in each (2.44 ave).

There is more ethnic and language diversity than before but, oh my, it's still not very much.
2/9

*Thank you* for every tweet & supportive msg re: the slurs on my academic integrity

I'm not important, but information, evidence & facts are.

In honour of that, here's a🧵correcting false claims in @bbcquestiontime on #Protocol [16:22-38:50] #bbcqt
1/22
bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod… There were statements made that some will disagree with or view v. differently.

& Each panellist @RobertBuckland @peterkyle @johnfinucane @little_pengelly @naomi_long made some statements that were true.

No need for me to repeat those ones, with two interesting exceptions…
2/

Latest N.Ireland Life&Times #NILTSurvey results are out!📊

NI’s leading social attitudes survey.
Randomised sampling.
Individual interviewing.
1,397 respondents.

All results here: ark.ac.uk/nilt/

Here's 6 findings on political attitudes to pique your interest -
1/8 First up, everyone’s talking about the Belfast/Good Fri Agmt these days. What does NI really think about it?

2/3 see it as still the best basis for governing NI

Most want further implementation (Bill of Rts, Civic Forum)

Most want some reform too e.g. Petition of Concern
2/8

Predicting the outcome of the Assembly #Election in N.Ireland is straightforward enough if you know how.

There are a handful of key factors to bear in mind.

Nail all of these & you’ll be way ahead of the game come results day 🤓
#AE22 🏖️

1/8 #1: the Issues 📝
What concerns are raised on the door steps? On the airwaves? Social media? Street demos?

What real life problems are addressed in the manifestos?
What policies are dissected in political debate?

Find the common thread across these & ... oh 😶

Moving on💨
2/8

Serious concerns about growth of executive power & weakening rule of #law & #humanrights protection are closer to home than Hungary or Poland ⚠️

I'm proud to be part of the UK Constitution Monitoring Group, whose 2nd report is issued today @Con_Soc
👇
1/5 consoc.org.uk/publications/t… In summary -
UK govt intent on reducing already-insufficient checks and balances on ministerial power.
2/5

The #Protocol on IRL/NI was agreed 2 years ago, with a key objective of avoiding a hard @BorderIrish

But what has #Brexit been like for people living along the #border?

We @QUBSSESW @europe_icban @UKandEU investigated…
And our report is out today!
tinyurl.com/AfterBrexit
1/10 This is our 4th QUB/ICBAN report since the 2016 referendum.

The study involved an online #survey of those living/working in the Central Border Region.

Our survey received c400 responses, equally spread either side of the border. There were also interviews & focus groups.

2/10

My wee book on the Irish border is out!

Inc. Irish #borders of land, sea, mind, & (gawd 'elp us) tech

Endorsed by its subject, @BorderIrish 🤩
the most sound & stand-out social scientists & journalists in GB & Ireland 😍
& the Primate of All-Ireland 😇

us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/what…

So the #Protocol is the talk of the town today, but what do the people most affected by it actually think about it?!

We @PostBrexitGovNI thought that was worth finding out. So we’re running polls in NI with @LucidTalk 📊

Here’s the 2nd one –

qub.ac.uk/sites/post-bre…

1/8 HEADLINE: NI is divided over the subject, believe it or not.

47% think Protocol is appropriate; 47% disagree.

What's interesting is that this split hasn’t changed much since last poll in March.

Most think NI needs specific arrangements but they disagree over the Protocol.

2/8

Why are post-Brexit N.Ireland politics so fraught?

There’s some illuminating data in @ARK_info NI Life&Times survey

We’ve asked Qs since 2016 on perceived impact of #Brexit on the prospect of Irish unification

This thread & @UKandEU blog explain:
ukandeu.ac.uk/northern-irela…

1/6 In 2016, a clear majority in NI thought #Brexit made no difference to likelihood of Irish unity or their views about it.

#Unionists didn’t want or expect it.

#Nationalists wanted it but didn’t expect it any time soon.

Those who were ‘Neither’ didn't think it changed much.

2/6

*POLLING!📊*
The NI/IRL #Protocol is a hot topic, at least in NI at the moment.

But we haven’t really known what people actually think about it… Until now!!

We've results of the 1st detailed opinion poll on the #Protocol for @PostBrexitGovNI project (give us a follow).

1/7 The poll used @LucidTalk opinion panel (thanks guys).

Weighted sample n.2156, margin of error -/+ 2-3%.

It’s the first of polls to be done every 4m for this @ESRC project led by @DPhinnemore @QUBelfast.

Poll conducted 24-28 March, so before unrest.

Headline results:
2/7

The DUP & ERG claim there's an alternative to the #Protocol: ‘Mutual enforcement’.

Whilst it is a clever name (implying cooperation+ tough action), in reality it is really not viable.
Here's a brief thread.

TLDR: 'taking back control' was so 2016.

1/6
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/… The primary intention of this model is to see the #border for the movement of goods shift from the Irish Sea to the Irish land border.

But to keep that border ‘invisible’, it has UK&IRL authorities enforcing the rules of the other jurisdiction.
🪄

2/6
centreforbrexitpolicy.org.uk/wp-content/upl…

A thread on the #Brexit dish of the day:
Article 16 of the NI/IRL #Protocol.

There’s momentum (👋@uuponline @duponline) gathering behind the idea that the UK Govt should trigger safeguard measures re: the Protocol.

(Yes, already)

Why so, & what might it do?
TL;DR: zilch

1/11 First, why the calls for it?
Well.
#Brexit means change to UK-EU trade, & the #Protocol means that that is taking effect down the Irish Sea.

There was too little time & too little info to prepare.

There are [wholly predictable] consequences.
🛃
2/11

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…

"Cut-out-and-keep" ✂️📌

A 4-tweet thread for every person living in N.Ireland who might well wonder what #Brexit means in practical terms.

Travelling, studying, working, driving, shopping, roaming in the EU after 1st Jan... & what will change on the island of Ireland too.

1/4 Those born in N.Ireland have a birthright to Irish citizenship, & Irish citizens retain EU citizenship rights.

Because Brexit means #Brexit, British citizens no longer have those rights, & there will be a change in visiting, staying and working in the EU after 1st January.

2/4

A very brief thread on how the #deal looks from N. Ireland.

In NI we're looking both east/west & north/south, as well as across to the wider EU.

[It is brief because I'm just going on the ltd EU info that we have👇
And because it's Xmas Eve, obvs 🎅]
1/6
ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf… You know this already, but:

The #Protocol means NI-EU mvnt of goods remains as it is at the moment in terms of paperwork.

But it also means GB-NI mvnt of goods is like a mini version of what happens GB-EU.
ie. ⬆️ GB-EU friction/divergence, the ‘harder’ the Irish Sea Border

2/6

A brief & simple thread on a long & complicated #Taxation Bill💶💷

This sees aspects of NI/IRL #Protocol brought into effect

TL;DR The Irish Sea is now a #customs border.
What this means in practice depends on UK-EU deal + details of y'day's JC agmt

bills.parliament.uk/bills/2811
1/8 #TaxationBill is infamous:

To push agmt on the #Protocol, UKG threatened to use this Bill to breach it [I'm aware that sounds nonsensical]

What UKG wd hv broken was the need for *joint* UK-EU decisions on how to implement the Protocol.
We're told they have these ready now.

2/8

One chapter of the interim #Report on Irish unification referendums @ConUnit_UCL contains analysis of public #opinion polls & surveys in NI, GB & Ireland on the subject. 📊📈📉

Do see the report for the details & sources, but here's a snapshot...
bit.ly/3nWfRiC

1/8 There's been a narrowing of the gap in recent yrs btn pro-Union & pro-Unity responses, & an increasing proportion think a united Ireland will happen at some point.
But if a #referendum were held tomorrow in NI, the combined evidence wouldn’t point to a clear majority Yes vote
2/8

If there was to be a #BorderPoll, how shd it best be designed & conducted?

A gp of academics convened to answer that Q… & we found it to be far from straightforward*
Here’s our interim report bit.ly/3nWfRiC
+a few thoughts
1/8
*Not just cos we like complicating things The Working Gp was excellently chaired & expertly run… but it was no easy task.

Not just due to our various views/disciplines, but cos there was almost no element that cd not be interpreted in different ways.

Each part of this #report was laboriously debated & discussed.

2/8

You may know this:
UK #InternalMarket Bill has arrived @UKHouseofLords.
But prob. no debate til after crunch EU Council, i.e. week after next.

But what you may not know:
It looks quite different to way it did before, inc. *big* amendments to part on N.Ireland #Protocol...
🧐
1/8 Eagle-eyed viewers among you will have spotted the first change.
The clauses have different numbers #⃣
Part 5 now starts with 42, not 40.

So the contentious clauses (which, "yes, do break international law") are now:
44 [export declns],
45 [state aid]
& 47 [law? schmaw!].

2/8

First reaction to this UKG statement on the 'Notwithstanding' clauses:

It is quite the opposite of reassuring.

TL;DR Less of a climbdown than a feint.

#Protocol

1/

gov.uk/government/pub… The statement shows the UK Internal Market Bill was only the half of it...

At the end it promises more such moves to come in the Finance Bill,
"inc. the same Parliamentary process that the Govt has committed to for the UKIM Bill" to related to "tariffs on GB-NI movement"...

2/

N.Ireland is once again the rope in the UK/EU tug of war.

(we've been here before, several times 🙄😩)

Both claim to be acting on the grounds of the Good Friday/Belfast 1998 Agreement.
🇬🇧🇪🇺🇮🇪

Both have a point…

But it’s complicated.

A twitter thread.
#Brexit #GFA
1/13 The Belfast/Good Friday #Agreement has 3 strands.

These strands represent the lines of division that gave rise to the #conflict:
* unionist/nationalist within NI,
* north/south across the border, &
* British/Irish.

The B/GFA formalised cooperation across these lines.
2/13

The #Brexit #Protocol Press Release from UK Gov today was titled
“Major £650 million investment for Northern Ireland” 💸
Which is one way of putting it.

Another might be: “This is costing us a pretty packet… & we’re only warming up”.

Thread (containing a beautiful SLIDE!)
1/8 Most of that £££££ is to fund a Trader Support Service #TSS to help businesses manage the new regime for getting goods into NI from GB & RoW.

The TSS is "new & unprecedented".

See @AnnaJerzewska's razor sharp analysis of quite what that means.

2/8

https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1291632282348990465?s=20