Whales were accumulating $BTC at $95k while retail was panicking.

Now they're taking profits at $105-110k.

Here's what their distribution patterns tell us about the next major move (and why this isn't a top signal YET)
🧵 2/ March through early May: Whales were quietly stacking.

While $BTC price sat below $95k, big players were piling up.

They saw value where others saw fear.
This accumulation phase set the foundation for the rally we saw last couple of weeks.

https://x.com/jlabsdigital/status/1919417303256756712

1/ Whales are nowhere.

Ever since Bitcoin broke $100K late last year, whale activity has declined... And then vanished in January.

The big players have been distributing, not accumulating.

But the latest data point suggest things might be nearing a change 👇 2/ The chart tells the story.

🔴🟡 Red and yellow dots = whales selling.
🟢🟣 Green and purple dots = whales buying.

Lately, it’s been a sea of red and yellow.

Still hoping for a Fed pivot soon? Think again.

The Fed's favorite inflation measure showed Jan. prices rose 5.4% YoY, a bigger increase than in Dec.

So it's unlikely a Fed pivot is in the cards.

But there are problems with this "official" measure.

More in the 🧵 below... The most well-known inflation gauge is the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The monthly CPI releases are like the market's Super Bowl. Everyone is anxiously awaiting what they say about inflation.

But while CPI gets the most headlines, it's actually not the Fed's preferred metric.

1/ With February ending, let's see what the market is telling us right now... 2/ Fed’s hawkishness and the hotter-than-expected economic data in February fueled the expectations of higher interest rates, strengthening the US dollar. This trend will likely remain unchanged until the release of employment data on Mar. 10 and the CPI print on Mar. 14.

You think 6%+ inflation is bad?

This headline is from last month. It's like something out of the Onion.

Sri Lanka's inflation FELL to 54% in Jan.

Why? Mostly b/c of food shortages driving up prices. But the real culprit is the ESG movement.

A 🧵 below on what's happening: First off, what's ESG?

It stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance.

It's a method investors use to see if a company is acting responsibly, especially regarding the environment, before they invest.

ESG has good intentions.

But it's led to serious problems in Sri Lanka.

1/ #Matic
Let's do a quick data dump. 2/ Consolidation for nearly 6 months with one fakeout pump and dump and now in Jan again broke out of that range.

1/ #ETH Zone of multiple confluences. Pullback incoming? 2/ Hitting some supply on this overnight pump.

1/ @SBF_FTX 's new fav token is on a rapid rise. 2/ #APT sees a drastic positive change in open interest (Oi) change over the past hours.

1/7 The Ongoing Issues With Third-Party Automation Providers And Spot Holdings. 2/7 For the last three months, users of a specific third-party automation provider have been voicing concerns over their spot holdings being manipulated.

1/ ICYMI, @coinmetrics @coinmetrics put together this incredibly comprehensive 40 page ETH research report:

"Mapping Out The Merge"

We found it quite informative and wanted to be sure to share it with our readers in TLDR format, with a few of our fav metrics for added context 2/ The Merge is scheduled to take place on 9-15-2022

When this happens validators of ETH's blockchain will switch from Proof-of-Work mining to Proof-of-Stake

PoW vs PoS has been the topic of much debate, but in short PoS proposes to improve ETH's security, economics,& emissions

/1: Funding rates went negative. Now analysts are saying its time to go long and a reversal is coming. Is there any truth to this?

Today we see what the data says and showcase a strategy you can employ to grab some alpha. #BTC /2: To start off, funding rate is defined as the cost to hold a perpetual futures position open. Each exchange has subtle nuances to this, but generally speaking it updates periodically throughout the day and has a baseline where long positions pay short positions.

Short-term high leverage liquidations
#BTC: 19.7k and 22k.
#ETH: 1,050

(1/4) Low leverage positioning on #BTC and #ETH
On ETH, there are pools near 1300 to be taken out.
On BTC, once again near 25k area.

(2/4)

The 40k has been defended and is now sitting at 43.8k. Fed testimony and CPI events were in consensus.
So, what next? 🧐
Let's take a dive into some metrics.
(Thread)
#BTC #ETH 30D returns were diminishing last month. Post-December drop, the metric has seen a steady rise as the price kept bleeding, forming a strong bullish divergence. It's now back in the threshold, and closing in on the 0% line. Once cleared, we foresee a few good performance weeks.

The last FOMC for 2021 is over. Tapering continues. Rate Hikes to come.
Bitcoin sits near 49k.
So let's dig into metrics and see what's next.

(Thread)
#fomc #fed #bitcoin #btc #usd The last tweet thread covered 30d diminishing returns for BTC. Now it has bottomed and starting to put in higher lows (bullish divergences with the price). Good for the short term, likely that in coming weeks we see the metric rising back to 0%.