Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #usd

Most recents (24)

Urging Calm Amidst Hysteria On #Turkey #Syria- 1- Without explicit green-light from #USA it will be a very limited (for show) maneuver; 2- This is being used here in #Turkey for temporary political gain (uniting the opposition with current admin); 3- #Russia also has put limits
Take in the macro picture (Forest instead of the trees): A major offensive by #Turkey is opposed by: #USA #Syria #Russia & #Iran. Only a brief limited muscle-flexing show is allowed. #GeopoliticalTheater
Here it is #Turkey “Still Preparing”. For the last 5 days, 1 minute they say “we are going in shortly, as in the next 24 hrs”, the next minute “we are preparing” or “we are waiting for XYZ ...”. The written on stone “Sep 30” deadline in #Syria expired 9 days and 11 hrs ago.
Read 85 tweets
Trump has been sensational in fostering nations to rely on regional support and marginalize US influence in geopolitics. His threats and isolationist economic approach only marginalizes US power long-term.
The world is experiencing pressures from a appreciating/strong #USD. As geopolitics play out, countries will seek alternatives to the US dollar and maneuver the financial system from US influence.
As an example of how shaky the current global system is due to a strong USD, look at the TRYUSD exchange rate in 2018. During political tension between the US and Turkey, the lira exponentially depreciated with threats off tariffs place on the country
Read 6 tweets
EVM Theme: #Stagflation 2020

The US consumer has been the one bright spot in an otherwise slowing global economy this year

Low rates
Cheap #gas
Strong & stable #USD

Consumer discretionary meaningfully outperforming S&P
Meanwhile, commodities have done the exact opposite as deflationary impact of strong USD & trade war dominates global trade
Major outperformance of consumer discretionary vs metals & mining ETF to reverse next year as #stagflation sets in and hits US consumer
Read 3 tweets
Standard Chartered 1/5: #USD – The peak is nearing
We remain neutral on the USD albeit with a slight negative bias as the uptrend appears to be coming to an end. However, we believe conditions for a reversal are not yet in place.
Standard Chartered 2/5: The USD has remained relatively resilient on the back of the US’s strong cyclical story relative to the rest of the world. Additionally, tight USD liquidity and capital flows have remained USD-supportive and could persist.
Standard Chartered 3/5: The higher US yield structure means that any US flows to the rest of the world will likely be hedged while flows into the US will likely be unhedged – which could prop the USD up in the near term. Further upside risks include an intensifying #tradewar,
Read 5 tweets
Hey all! Attention if you are up for an update on my perspective on markets. Deflation and massive moves ahead! Stay tuned #HZupdates
Let's start with #CRB, which created a nice shooting star on weekly chart, and leaving gap open below. Wave "e" often overshoots trend-line only to turn hard the opposite direction. The likely coming decline in #CRB is deflationary #HZupdates
This week we had an #Oil crisis according to some analysts. It played out on Monday😄Like #CRB, #Oil is consolidating in a sideway-consolidation (wave B) before a strong move lower. Target in Ending Diagonal remains <20USD. This will be secular bottom. First #deflation #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
1) Is China’s currency undervalued like the everyone seems to believe or overvalued?

Are #China’s FX reserves sufficient to prevent a further devaluation of the #Yuan (#RMB)?

Are #China’s FX reserves what they appear to be?
2) Why would China need to clamp down capital flight if the #Yuan is undervalued and/or FX reserves are more than enough, as China claims?

#China clamps down on capital flight risk as #yuan weakens asia.nikkei.com/Business/Marke…
3) Stricter bank oversight while real estate developers will have restricted access to foreign currency bonds. If the fin system is judged to be on the brink of instability SAFE will declare the situation "abnormal" & banks will be evaluated on the #Yuan amounts wired offshore.
Read 12 tweets
#ECB is likely to crash EUR in attempt to stimulate EU-economy🤦‍♂️(incompetence in ECB is staggering!). Wait for waterfall moment in #EURUSD. Currently flirting with LT-trendline. Target 0.85-0.91 #HZupdates
Major drop in #EURUSD will send #USD #DXY soaring (following pot. ST weakness). LT-target for DXY is >111. This is likely to be the trigger for REAL Fed intervention, which will push economy out of Deflation #HZupdates
Rally in #USD will push #Gold (#XAUUSD) into major decline in final wave C, which will take yellow pet rock below 1000 USD. Imo no way that structure of rally since 2015 is new Bull market. It is ZigZag-correction topping ~1480 (here!) or ~1590 (-1600). Major Bull trap #HZupdates
Read 8 tweets
Good morning! 😁Deflationary phase is developing in economy. Stay tuned for my perspectives on coming developments in markets based on charts - technical and fundamental analysis #HZupdates thread coming up!
SP500 recovered some of the loses from early trading this week. Still, I think we have seen the top of the Expanding Diagonal, and we are currently in the Deflationary part of the crisis, where growth in economy is rolling over. Target ~2050 by Q1/Q2 2020 #HZupdates
#SP500 - will we see rally to 2950 for pot. top of wave 2 (black) before reversal and strong decline? That would close the gap in market from early Aug. #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
#Geopolitical Code “Red”:1- No coverage of #Jeffrey Meeting in #Turkey Today; 2- No official response from #Turkey on recent rumors re: #Erdogan Heart-Attack;3- Sudden Anti-#Russia media reports in Turkey on #Idlib #Syria; 4-Increased media PsyOp on Turkey by #Israel #UAE #Saudis
Those of you who’ve been following my long-Pinned thread covering #Turkey #Russia #S400 #Idlib #USA know about my Warning re: “The Calm Before the Storm” in the last week or so. Strange developments & activities have picked in the last 24 hrs. All eyes on #Turkey #Idlib #Russia
Also, those of you who followed my #Turkey #Coup warnings 6-8 months prior to the #AttemptedCoup: Eyes on Turkey. As in earthquake-watch System I’ve been tracking all note-worthy Activities & Developments On The Ground In Turkey. Peak activities & signs in the last 24 hrs.
Read 90 tweets
Vacation time 🙂I'm currently in beautiful Oregon, US. Been flying, rafting, hiking, eating and playing with the kids - great time! Now - small break to update myself on the markets. Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
Where the #USD goes, rest of the market follows! Getting the direction of USD right is key. This is how I see #DXY short term. Further downside to develop - with target ~95.0. This is likely a major bottom - before DXY explodes higher #HZupdates
Following the ST weakness in #DXY, I think we will see much higher levels coming , as the shortage of USDs in the financial system becomes very clear. The target remains 107-109 - pot. higher to be reached some time around Mid-2020 #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
Dear all 🙂Hope you enjoy the weekend! We are still in the Twilight Zone. Despite continued deteriorating economic fundamentals across the globe, US stock market continues to rally. But for how long...? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
Indicators and signals across the globe continue to suggest economic slowdown - which slowly but surely spreads to all geographical regions and industries. It is my firm belief, that US will not decouple and US #equities will realize this at some point #HZupdates
#WTI sends clear signal from major Ending Diagonal. We may rally further in wave (B) - but soon we will see a reversal, which will send #Oil towards its LT-target of <20USD #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
So - #Gold is rallying towards AT - right? Bulls have won! Somebody should send the memo to #Silver. While #Silver normally leads or peaks with Gold - Gold has been on its own spree. Man - I would love to join the Gold Euphoria 😉 Bear Flag - perhaps? #HZupdates
Somebody should also send that memo to #GDX. Notice how GDX bottoms and supports Gold in Bull market. New high in Gold = New High in GDX. Not what we see now! #HZupdates
But....#USD is breaking down as Fed will cut rates.... No - it is not! #DXY is CORRECTING in a clear stairs-like structure. We can see 95 or 94 - perhaps lower. But this is no breakdown #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
Good morning FinTwit 🙂 Trust you are well! Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I hear #Gold has broken up and out - and we are now on the way to new highs.... Gold Bulls are VERY confident - and we see very creative charts to prove the break out. Well - this is how I see it #HZupdates
#Gold has been in a long correction phase starting 2011. Corrections develop in ABC-patterns. Wave B often is a triangle - which get's all the Gold Bulls excited about new highs - just before the major last plunge #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
Just wrote a 10 msg response to a long chat we've been having around the Fed/Powell, same old stuff, hence my long response to lay it all out there. Thought I'd share with the rest of you, please do share your thoughts as well. Here we go. For those ready for a book. #Dollar #Fed
1\ Did you read the report from the NYFed issued in Jan? Doesn't suggest NIRP anytime soon, the opposite actually. Here's the facts: 1) the Fed is backed into a corner and can never actually "normalize" rates, & 2) Powell's intentions are relevant only in S/T because, 2\
2\ as we all know, we will (ultimately) have another painful sell-off in equities. The Fed is horrified by the prospect of such an event due to the resulting implosion of underfunded (an unfunded) pensions, entitlement programs & retirement funds across the US that'd result. 3\
Read 13 tweets
💵💴💷
Dünyada 1971 yılından beri para kullanılmıyor. Evet, doğru okudunuz..!

Siz sadece elinizdeki kağıtların para olduğuna inandırıldınız ama değil.
Ve tarihin en vahşi kölelik dönemi işte böyle başladı. Nasıl mı?

#Flood'a başlayalım..

#Cumartesi
1- Para sadece altın ve gümüştür. Tarih boyunca da hep böyle olmuştur. 1000'lerce yıl.
Bugün devam eden kağıt para sisteminin ise ilk temelleri 1789’daki Fransız ihtilalinden sonra, endüstri devrimi ile atıldı.

Yeni başlayan bu çağa “aydınlanma” çağı dendi.
2- İlk zamanlarda herşey güzeldi. Kıymetli metallere karşılık gelen çekler bankalar tarafından, gerçek para (altın/gümüş) sahiplerine veriliyordu.

Ve bu kağıtlar gerçek bir değeri ifade ediyordu.
Bunu şöyle bir örnekle anlatmaya çalışalım!!
Read 26 tweets
Good morning all! 😎 Trust you are well. #Oil declined hard last week. The deflationary environment is unfolding, as it has been laid out in #HZupdates. Please stay tuned for more!
Anybody who has been following my #deflationary scenario remembers my #Oil chart. The bounce, we saw from end 2018 until April 2019 was a wave "B" bounce in this wave 5 of the great Ending Diagonal. We will see Oil plummet to min. 22USD pot. all the wavy to ~10USD #HZupdates
This has not come as a surprise! #AUDUSD (Inflation gauge) had for a long time been flirting with LT-trendline from 2008. This was a sign of weakness in inflation - which could only play out, if Oil dropped (like the Ending diagonal suggested) #HZupdates
Read 17 tweets
1 to 24 - Attempted coup in Venezuela with support from the US - 2019
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1124734…
25 - Attempted coup in Venezuela with support from the US - 2019
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1125031…
Read 135 tweets
ALTs update

#USD paired ALTs are pumping, mostly thx to $BTC pump against #USD

$BTC paired ALTs continued to struggle but are showing bottoming process for last few days

Here is how to play ALTs:

Check the Thread /2
If you are into $BTC you may flip your #BTC position for ALTs for next few days if #Bitcoin struggles against key resistance & can’t post higher highs in next few days

Which ALTs to choose ?

2 setups

Trend Continuation
Trend Reversal

I prefer 1st one, let’s discuss both /3
Trend Continuation is relevant for those ALTs which are still trending up against $BTC

There aren’t many, but handful of them like #LTC #BNB are taking a breather against $BTC But May find a support & eventually pump again

What about Trend Reversal? /4
Read 9 tweets
Some analysts seem to think, that #USDJPY must decline when/if #SP500 is to decline or crash. That is not the case! Observe yellow markings #HZupdates
#USDJPY and #Gold have strong inverse relationship. Both have formed triangles since 2015. Now - main direction will continue. USDJPY towards ~154 - and Gold towards ~800 USD #HZupdates
#Gold did bottom in 2015 - but only for a bounce! A "ZigZag-pattern" is defined by A-B-C waves. A from 2011-15 = 5 waves. B from 2015-19 = Triangle (abcde). Now 5 waves down in wave C. Decline may be very strong! #HZupdates
Read 10 tweets
Dear all 😀 Hope you have enjoyed the weekend! Stay tuned for some #HZupdates with perspectives on what I see ahead in markets.
The dominoes have been lined up for some major developments in markets. #USDCNH is a clear indication of this. As expected (look back in #HZupdates), this pair is about to go vertical. Next wave up will be explosive ~8.1 as the first major target. Chinese devaluation?
Another indicator is #AUDUSD where the bottom is about to fall out of. This will be a clear starting signal for the coming deflationary phase, which will be tough on a long range of assets. LT target for this pair is ~0.46 #HZupdates
Read 9 tweets
1 to 24 - Attempted coup in Venezuela with support from the US - 2019
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1124734…
25 - Attempted coup in Venezuela with support from the US - 2019
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1125031…
Read 117 tweets
Hi #fintwit 😎 We are approaching a watershed moment in markets. Final deflationary phase of Kondratiev's winter is about to play out. Huge implications for #EUR, #Gold, #SP500, #DXY etc. I have some new interesting followers - hence something extra in this week's #HZupdates
#Kondratiev's winter is a period where #Velocity of Money drops which creates a disinflationary economic environment, where growth is subdued due to #debt levels. Since ~2000 we have been in this winter - and are still to see a range of "major economic events" unfold #HZupdates
In fact, we have never left the #Financial #Crisis. We have only been bouncing in the great "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis" of this #Kondratiev's winter. This can be observed from the #Deflation Gauges #Copper, #XAU, AUD, EUR. We are about to see wave C develop #HZupdates
Read 21 tweets
#HongKong: Pressure on the #USD - #HKD peg is mounting. The rising #US interest rates have put enormous pressure on the HKD peg. This has depleted Hong Kong's excess FX reserves.
#HongKong has FX Reserves of $438bn (March 2019) plus another $6.9bn from the HKMA Exchange Fund which is there to stabilize the #HKD peg. Looking at the HKMA Exchange fund it is clear that money has been leaving HK. Since 2016 the fund has gone from $55bn to $7bn.
#HongKong M2 is currently 1,8 trillion USD. However, the total FX Reserves / M2 are only at 24%.
Read 8 tweets

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