Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #usd

Most recents (24)

Getting close to grand moment in markets. Crash of #EURUSD. First, look at major picture. EURUSD has been developing in WXY-pattern since 2008. Correctional yes! But we still lack final wave C of wave Y. This is min. as strong decline as strong as decline from Dec. '09 to Jul '10
Zooming in! Remembering, that sub-count of WXY-patterns are abc-patterns, we see clear pattern of 5 wave move since EUR-high in 2018. This is wave A. Then we have had correctional B since Oct. 2018 incl. triangle. Wave "e" peaked above - so now we should see CRASH in wave C!
Target 0.80-0.85 to be reached this year! #USD will strengthen a lot and fast! I will be speaking more of this on the live show on Sunday at #TheZebergReport TheZebergReport.com
Read 3 tweets
These are the "events" we experience during Kondratiev's Winter. We have seen some of these but they will play out a range of times. First in 2000-03, then worse during 2007-09 and now the big one 2020-23(?). Some major dominoes are about to fall - before we reach end of Winter
Major events still to be seen (apart from rest which will be repeated and become much worse than before!): 1) Pension fund crisis 2) Run from paper money 3) War (hope not!) 4) Debt resolution (Monetary Reset?). We are NO where near end of this major crisis, which ends K's Winter
My LT #Copper chart tells me, that we may very well see the crisis (with various phases) continue until end-21 or beginning of '22. That is for the bottom in the economic activity which means, that repercussions may be felt way into 2023-25. No where near the end of this crisis!
Read 19 tweets
I’ll explain this further in my next video- but during these “extraordinary” times instead of publishing content only at #Newsbud , I’m planning to post free public content patreon.com/sibeledmonds?u…
Thank you for suggesting this to me- I was not familiar with #Patreon. Thank you all for all your support- of any kind or form. Whether emotionally or financially. ❤️
Thank you, L.M. for being the first Patron. 🙏
Read 16 tweets
#Gold No changes to my LT target: 800-890 USD! We have massive BEARISH PATTERN and divergence! Wedge may be done and hence crash imminent! However, we may(!) see a rather strong rally beginning of next week! Why? See next tweet!
The BEARISH pattern implies, that we must be looking for beginning of Decline. Short term, we may(!) have first 5 wave decline - yet we have not seen acceleration (w3). So, wave (2) may still be playing out - with pot. wave up to 1740s - generating all-good feeling!
This would align #Gold structure with #EURUSD structure. Hence, a ST rally before the crash sets in for both #Gold and #Euro. Strong #USD will crush Precious Metals and all other currencies. Take care!!
Read 3 tweets
THREAD: Financial hardship for international students.

It is hard to imagine the incredible financial hardship that the international students who stayed in the United States are going through.

(1/n)
The international students who went back home are doing "relatively" well from a financial standpoint.

Most of them are living with their parents and their families can help support them with basic needs.

The ones who stayed, however, face a very different situation.

(2/n)
For an international student who stayed in the United States, they will have - at least - the following expenses:

- Groceries and basic supplies
- Housing

Other miscellaneous can come, but those are certainly the main expenses.

(3/n)
Read 13 tweets
Good morning! 😀Fed is all in (again!!) - and this time there is a great confidence among traders (again!!) that Fed can has stopped deflation and supplied enough liquidity to the system. But is that really the case? Stay tuned for my perspectives #HZupdates
Let me start an nontraditional way - with a zoom in. This is #SP500 1 hour chart. I look for corrections and main directional moves. This is a correctional move - and it may have finalized! So - the main wave will soon set in again. Now - lets zoom out #HZupdates
The zoom in was of wave 4. It is correctional in nature - and will hence be 100% (or way more) surpassed. Notice - it managed to retrace to 50% Fib. I think we are really close to the next strong decline. EW gives us ~1800 for bottom of wave A = the illiquid deflationary period
Read 17 tweets
#Top10 #cryptocurrencies [by #MarketVolume] on the 3rd of April, 2020 according to Dxone Exchange.
Number 10:

#OKB token by @OKEx

It is an #ERC20 token with a market cap of 1,221 Million #USD. It's key utility is discounts on #trading fees, voting rights, ability to invest in #incubated projects and #sharing_revenue.

(Source: cryptobriefing.com/what-is-ok-exc…) via @crypto_briefing
Number 9:

#BNB by @binance

@cz_binance's brainchild, the BNB #token powers everything in the Binance ecosystem. What was once just a #cryptocoin for exchange is a full-fledged #Ethereum competitor and sits at 1,917 Million USD market cap
Read 12 tweets
#Deflation unfolding - but as in all moves - we will always see counter-moves or corrections. Last week was such a correction. We must not drop our guard! The economic situation is dire and we are not through the illiquid phase. Major developments ahead! Stay tuned for #HZupdates
It is all about #USD. Last week was a retracement in the new strong spike for #DXY = wave ii (blue). Within days, DXY will likely start strong rally higher - reaching min. 109 within weeks. End target will be reached later this year ~122 #HZupdates
The rally in #DXY is caused by extreme USD shortage. #EURUSD will feel the strength. In fact, it seems to me, that we are about to see a very strong decline in EURUSD within days/weeks to ~0.97-0.98 before a sideways bounce. LT-target remains the same: ~0.85 to be reached this yr
Read 20 tweets
Some #EmergingMarkets thoughts. The shock is unprecedented. Q1 GDP likely contracted -15% (annualized). If #China indeed recovers, Q2 headline number may look better. But, X-China, the pain has only just started. 1/6
The nature of the shock is complicated. Domestic factors (lower consumption and investment) is combining with external shocks (collapsing exports; imploding commodity prices; lower remittances; & disappearing tourists). 2/6
To that, add the tightening of financial conditions including, most insidiously, the severe #USD liquidity shortage (exacerbated by portfolio outflows). Among others, the crunch will hurt a highly indebted corporate sector. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
The mother of all QEs is here - @federalreserve has announced:
a. Interest rate cut by 100bps to 0% - 0.25%
b. Emergency lending rate cut by 125 basis points to 0.25%,
c. Increased the emergency lending term of loans to 90 days.

#USD #FEDrate
#QE5

(1/n)
d. Buying of $500 BN of Treasurys and $200 BN of agency-backed mortgage securities.
e. Pushed major banks to use the equity + liquid buffers ($1.3 TN + $2.9 TN) for lending and manage credit expansion.
Instantly, eight largest U.S. banks (Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street, and Wells Fargo) have suspended share buybacks program to support the Fed's idea of credit expansion.

#bankofamerica #CITIBANK
Read 6 tweets
"Something is Breaking!" and we are going to see decades worth of developments in the span of few weeks or months. #Coronavirus has been the trigger of the #Deflation, I have been expecting for so long. It is now here! Stay tuned for #HZupdates to get my view on markets
"Something is Breaking" has been taken from zerohedge.com/markets/someth…. We are observing an extreme USD Shortage developing fast and it is going to cause a wild #DXY rally the coming weeks & months. Chart of FRA/OIS provides overview of the severity of the developing USD shortage
My #DXY model supports this macro outlook exactly. Correction from late 2019 has concluded and DXY will now explode higher in 5 impulsive waves higher to target ~111. I expect this move to reach target ~Mid-2020. The consequences of a strong DXY will be wide-spread. #Deflation
Read 15 tweets
1/11 A thread on the #euro and why I think its existence is about to be tested.
2/11 #Europe is about to face a simultaneous endogenous & exogenous economic shock. The #COVID19 is creating multi-level disruptions, and the #EU will need to act swiftly to address them. However, history has shown that #EU's decision-making process is very rigid. #euro
3/11 Yesterday, the European Commission pledged 25bn to tackle the economic crisis caused by the #coronavirus outbreak. This amount is equal to ~0.15% of #EU's GDP. Hence, bolder moves will be needed to address the upcoming economic disruption. #euro

news.trust.org/item/202003101…
Read 11 tweets
Good morning! Let's have an update on markets as it has now become very clear, that we are to see the #Deflation unfolding, which I have mentioned here for a long time. Why hasn't it really hurt yet - and what to expect? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I have shown my #Oil chart for a long time with Ending Diagonal. Since talks of oil >100USD - and during spikes in oil due to attacks in ME. All noise!! Structures drive price - and we are en route towards <20USD - perhaps as low as ~10USD for Oil. #Deflation unfolding!
I have shown #Deflation in #CRB chart. Broken lower trendline and now heading towards much lower levels to be reached this year! It will be a SECULAR BOTTOM - hence this is from where #STAGLFLATION will develop, as economy continues to plummet and prices begin to rise #HZupdates
Read 23 tweets
#Deflation phase has started. Stocks will plummet in 5 waves down to ~1800 in #SP500. Wave 2 and 4 will be corrections. We have break of 200SMA and trendline from early 2019. I think we see a backtest of these (yellow area?). But - in general trend is down - and fast!
#USD #DXY is about to set off on a major move higher. The current correction is a wave 2 (blue) and hence next wave will take us to min. 103 - but more likely 106-107 in an impulsive move. Do not stand in front of the USD train coming months!
#EURUSD kissing 50SMA and pot. also 200SMA "Goodbye" - before turning down hard. Next wave will take down to - and likely below bottom from early 2017 - only for a short consolidation before EUR crash continues. LT-target remains ~0.85
Read 14 tweets
Stocks resumed their plunge, wiping out more than $3 trillion in value this week alone, and U.S. Treasuries yields hit record lows on Thursday (27/2) as the #coronavirus spread faster outside China and investors fled to safe havens. #DataNow
More #DataNow:
🔹Global equities have now fallen for six straight days.
🔹Spot #gold rose 0.5% to $1,649 per ounce and #silver gained 1% to $18.03 an ounce.
🔹Gold hit a 7-year high at near $1,688 per ounce on Mon (24/2)

reuters.com/article/us-glo…
#Oil prices slide for fifth day to lowest in a year as #coronavirus fears grow. #Brent crude was down $2.29, or 4.3%, at $51.14 a barrel at 10:31 a.m. ET/ 1531 GMT on Thurs 27/2 - just off the session low of $51.13 a barrel. #COVIDー19 #DataNow reut.rs/2I2baAQ
Read 13 tweets
#AUD Haftalik destek asagi yonlü kirildi. Aylik grafigi inceleyiniz. „Death Cross „ olusuyor 0.66800 altinda kapanis olursa satis panigi yükselir. Cin de olasi her negatif haber yada veri direkt olarak #Aud yi etkiler. Alimda iseniz dikkatli olalim. Sadece arkadasca bir uyari.!
#AUDUSD Gunlük,haftalik satis baskisinin gectigini söylemek zor. Olasi #USD nin deger kazanmasi ve #coronaravirus negatif etkilerinin finans piyasalarina yansimasi durumunda Cin ile ciddi ticari iliskileri olan #AUD yi daha cok etkiliyebilir. SL 0.68100 ⬇️⬇️
#AUDUSD Beklentimiz dogrultusunda satis devam ediyor. #China enflasyon verileri beklentinin altinda gelirse ve #coronavirus haberleri devam ettigi sürece asagi yonlü kirilgan. Tkp edelim, SL 0.68100
Read 4 tweets
Let us briefly #Reflect on the #SARB's first #MPC #Meeting of 2020 and their #MonetaryPolicy decision to cut rates by 25bps from 6.5% to 6.25%...
Everyone with some interest in such matters is without a doubt already aware that the #SouthAfricanReserveBank's #MonetaryPolicyCommittee cut its key #PolicyRate, the #Repo by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.25%. The move can perhaps best be summarised by the following statement:
It is clear from the statement above that the SARB moved on the back of a growth story. They would want to see the level of #inflation creep closer to 4.5% but they didnt tighten to achieve this end. Rather, they provided more accommodation for growth & inflation might pick up...
Read 11 tweets
A Thread on #China. Some data and some thoughts. I hope you find it useful.

What's different about China's GDP number?
Is China growing at 6% as it lets everyone else believe?
Can China come out of this without devaluing its currency?
1/ #China’s GDP is an input number and not an output figure like in western economies. National accounts are based on data collected by local governments which are rewarded for meeting growth targets; hence, they have an incentive to skew the data they provide to the Central Gov.
2/ Looking at different data sets one will see that #China is merely growing. PMI sentiment is falling fast; a number below 50 denotes a contraction and not an expansion as the GDP growth rate suggests. Manufacturing (49.8) & New Export Orders (48.2) have already fallen below 50.
Read 26 tweets
Urging Calm Amidst Hysteria On #Turkey #Syria- 1- Without explicit green-light from #USA it will be a very limited (for show) maneuver; 2- This is being used here in #Turkey for temporary political gain (uniting the opposition with current admin); 3- #Russia also has put limits
Take in the macro picture (Forest instead of the trees): A major offensive by #Turkey is opposed by: #USA #Syria #Russia & #Iran. Only a brief limited muscle-flexing show is allowed. #GeopoliticalTheater
Here it is #Turkey “Still Preparing”. For the last 5 days, 1 minute they say “we are going in shortly, as in the next 24 hrs”, the next minute “we are preparing” or “we are waiting for XYZ ...”. The written on stone “Sep 30” deadline in #Syria expired 9 days and 11 hrs ago.
Read 85 tweets
Trump has been sensational in fostering nations to rely on regional support and marginalize US influence in geopolitics. His threats and isolationist economic approach only marginalizes US power long-term.
The world is experiencing pressures from a appreciating/strong #USD. As geopolitics play out, countries will seek alternatives to the US dollar and maneuver the financial system from US influence.
As an example of how shaky the current global system is due to a strong USD, look at the TRYUSD exchange rate in 2018. During political tension between the US and Turkey, the lira exponentially depreciated with threats off tariffs place on the country
Read 6 tweets
EVM Theme: #Stagflation 2020

The US consumer has been the one bright spot in an otherwise slowing global economy this year

Low rates
Cheap #gas
Strong & stable #USD

Consumer discretionary meaningfully outperforming S&P
Meanwhile, commodities have done the exact opposite as deflationary impact of strong USD & trade war dominates global trade
Major outperformance of consumer discretionary vs metals & mining ETF to reverse next year as #stagflation sets in and hits US consumer
Read 3 tweets
Standard Chartered 1/5: #USD – The peak is nearing
We remain neutral on the USD albeit with a slight negative bias as the uptrend appears to be coming to an end. However, we believe conditions for a reversal are not yet in place.
Standard Chartered 2/5: The USD has remained relatively resilient on the back of the US’s strong cyclical story relative to the rest of the world. Additionally, tight USD liquidity and capital flows have remained USD-supportive and could persist.
Standard Chartered 3/5: The higher US yield structure means that any US flows to the rest of the world will likely be hedged while flows into the US will likely be unhedged – which could prop the USD up in the near term. Further upside risks include an intensifying #tradewar,
Read 5 tweets
Hey all! Attention if you are up for an update on my perspective on markets. Deflation and massive moves ahead! Stay tuned #HZupdates
Let's start with #CRB, which created a nice shooting star on weekly chart, and leaving gap open below. Wave "e" often overshoots trend-line only to turn hard the opposite direction. The likely coming decline in #CRB is deflationary #HZupdates
This week we had an #Oil crisis according to some analysts. It played out on Monday😄Like #CRB, #Oil is consolidating in a sideway-consolidation (wave B) before a strong move lower. Target in Ending Diagonal remains <20USD. This will be secular bottom. First #deflation #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets

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