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Michael Nicoletos Profile picture
Michael Nicoletos
@mnicoletos
Curious on how behavioral fallacies challenge financial markets (and cryptos). Always learning new things, getting to know new people, and having a bit of fun.
2 subscribers
Apr 10, 2023 • 19 tweets • 16 min read
1/15: I was recently called a “China Macro Tourist”, so I decided to do the following and give a chance to everyone to find out about China’s Macro reality for themselves.

Since the best way of learning is by doing, I will set a few questions so that everyone who doubts to find… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 2/15 a: We start from the GDP: China’s GDP is an input number and not an output figure like in Western economies. National accounts are based on data collected by local governments, which are rewarded for meeting growth targets; hence, local governments are incentivised to skew… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Sep 1, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/ There is a considerable debate regarding inflation and currency debasement - and a lot of people are puzzled why some hard assets (gold, silver, bitcoin, and soon real estate) are not responding as the literature would suggest in such an environment.

This is how I see it >> 2/ Let’s say you have a bucket full of water (liquidity of money) where you constantly pour more water in it (money supply + new credit) because it has small holes in it (structural deflationary pressures) to keep the water level constant (economy running). >>
Aug 31, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
ADXY (Asian Dollar Basket) vs. MSCI EM Markets

#the_dollar_wrecking_ball ADXY (Asian Dollar Basket) vs. iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF

#the_dollar_wrecking_ball
Mar 11, 2020 • 11 tweets • 10 min read
1/11 A thread on the #euro and why I think its existence is about to be tested. 2/11 #Europe is about to face a simultaneous endogenous & exogenous economic shock. The #COVID19 is creating multi-level disruptions, and the #EU will need to act swiftly to address them. However, history has shown that #EU's decision-making process is very rigid. #euro
Nov 14, 2019 • 26 tweets • 18 min read
A Thread on #China. Some data and some thoughts. I hope you find it useful.

What's different about China's GDP number?
Is China growing at 6% as it lets everyone else believe?
Can China come out of this without devaluing its currency? 1/ #China’s GDP is an input number and not an output figure like in western economies. National accounts are based on data collected by local governments which are rewarded for meeting growth targets; hence, they have an incentive to skew the data they provide to the Central Gov.
Aug 30, 2019 • 12 tweets • 8 min read
1) Is China’s currency undervalued like the everyone seems to believe or overvalued?

Are #China’s FX reserves sufficient to prevent a further devaluation of the #Yuan (#RMB)?

Are #China’s FX reserves what they appear to be? 2) Why would China need to clamp down capital flight if the #Yuan is undervalued and/or FX reserves are more than enough, as China claims?

#China clamps down on capital flight risk as #yuan weakens asia.nikkei.com/Business/Marke…
Apr 11, 2019 • 8 tweets • 8 min read
#HongKong: Pressure on the #USD - #HKD peg is mounting. The rising #US interest rates have put enormous pressure on the HKD peg. This has depleted Hong Kong's excess FX reserves. #HongKong has FX Reserves of $438bn (March 2019) plus another $6.9bn from the HKMA Exchange Fund which is there to stabilize the #HKD peg. Looking at the HKMA Exchange fund it is clear that money has been leaving HK. Since 2016 the fund has gone from $55bn to $7bn.