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🧵 THREAD: How to Spot a Market Correction Before It Happens
20 Lessons from the Last 20 Major Crashes
(1/20)
20 Lessons from the Last 20 Major Crashes
(1/20)
1/
Most investors only recognize a correction after it’s already taken 20% from their portfolio.
The signals were always there. They just weren’t reading them.
Here’s the framework I use — built from studying every major crash since 1987. 🧵
Most investors only recognize a correction after it’s already taken 20% from their portfolio.
The signals were always there. They just weren’t reading them.
Here’s the framework I use — built from studying every major crash since 1987. 🧵
2/
First, let’s agree on something important:
No single indicator predicts a crash.
What you’re looking for is confluence — multiple signals flashing at the same time.
Think of it like a weather forecast, not a single thermometer reading.
First, let’s agree on something important:
No single indicator predicts a crash.
What you’re looking for is confluence — multiple signals flashing at the same time.
Think of it like a weather forecast, not a single thermometer reading.
A thread today about Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to various pathogens and why they seem to be elevated a lot in people with #LongCOVID, #MECFS, chronic #lyme/tick- and vector-borne illnesses and other complex chronic illnesses. First, let's start basic: what is IgG?
1/
1/
A good way to think of it is that when your body encounters a virus or bacteria, it learns how to fight it and then writes down the instructions and stores it. Those stored written instructions are IgG antibodies. They stick around in your bloodstream for years, sometimes
2/
2/
for life, so that if the same invader shows up again, your immune system can recognize the pathogen and mount a highly targeted attack that takes out the pathogen much faster than the first time. Pretty cool. So, all of us have IgG antibodies for various viruses and pathogens
3/
3/
Project Samudra Manthan (Thread)
Most Indians know about ISRO, Green Revolution, nuclear tests.
But almost nobody is talking about India's biggest bet for the 21st century.
It's happening 3,000 metres below the Indian Ocean.
It's called SAMUDRA MANTHAN.
1/25
Most Indians know about ISRO, Green Revolution, nuclear tests.
But almost nobody is talking about India's biggest bet for the 21st century.
It's happening 3,000 metres below the Indian Ocean.
It's called SAMUDRA MANTHAN.
1/25
What is Project Samudra Manthan?
India's National Deep Water Exploration Mission launched to map & extract energy, minerals & resources hidden in India's deep ocean floor.
"Samudra Manthan" = churning of the ocean
Gods churned the ocean to find hidden treasures. India is doing exactly that
India's National Deep Water Exploration Mission launched to map & extract energy, minerals & resources hidden in India's deep ocean floor.
"Samudra Manthan" = churning of the ocean
Gods churned the ocean to find hidden treasures. India is doing exactly that
It consists of 3 related but different programmes:
Deep Ocean Mission- the umbrella science mission (₹4,077 cr)
Samudrayaan- India's crewed submersible (like an ocean ISRO)
Samudra Manthan- the deep-water EXPLORATION & EXTRACTION mission
Today's thread = Samudra Manthan 🎯
Deep Ocean Mission- the umbrella science mission (₹4,077 cr)
Samudrayaan- India's crewed submersible (like an ocean ISRO)
Samudra Manthan- the deep-water EXPLORATION & EXTRACTION mission
Today's thread = Samudra Manthan 🎯
In March 2025, the last surviving pilot of the Battle of Britain died at the age of 105.
He had been shot down four times. He survived a burning cockpit, the sea, a parachute that snagged in a tree, and a fall behind enemy lines.
When he died, the last of Churchill's "Few" was gone forever.
This is the story of Paddy Hemingway..🧵1/6
He had been shot down four times. He survived a burning cockpit, the sea, a parachute that snagged in a tree, and a fall behind enemy lines.
When he died, the last of Churchill's "Few" was gone forever.
This is the story of Paddy Hemingway..🧵1/6
⠀🧵 2/6
John Allman Hemingway was born in Dublin in 1919. Everyone knew him as Paddy. He joined the Royal Air Force in 1938, and by the time the Second World War broke out he was a fighter pilot with No. 85 Squadron, flying the Hawker Hurricane.
His war began before the Battle of Britain. In May 1940, as the German army smashed through France and the Low Countries, Hemingway flew over the retreating British army as it fell back toward the beaches of Dunkirk. He shot down a German bomber and shared in destroying another, before his own Hurricane was hit by anti-aircraft fire and he was forced down near Maastricht.
His squadron was mauled in the fighting over France. They came home to Britain with only a handful of working aircraft and many of their pilots dead, wounded, or missing.
There was no time to rest. The Germans were already turning their attention across the Channel. Hitler intended to destroy the RAF, win control of the skies, and then invade Britain.
The only thing standing in his way was a few hundred young fighter pilots. Paddy Hemingway was one of them.
John Allman Hemingway was born in Dublin in 1919. Everyone knew him as Paddy. He joined the Royal Air Force in 1938, and by the time the Second World War broke out he was a fighter pilot with No. 85 Squadron, flying the Hawker Hurricane.
His war began before the Battle of Britain. In May 1940, as the German army smashed through France and the Low Countries, Hemingway flew over the retreating British army as it fell back toward the beaches of Dunkirk. He shot down a German bomber and shared in destroying another, before his own Hurricane was hit by anti-aircraft fire and he was forced down near Maastricht.
His squadron was mauled in the fighting over France. They came home to Britain with only a handful of working aircraft and many of their pilots dead, wounded, or missing.
There was no time to rest. The Germans were already turning their attention across the Channel. Hitler intended to destroy the RAF, win control of the skies, and then invade Britain.
The only thing standing in his way was a few hundred young fighter pilots. Paddy Hemingway was one of them.
🧵 3/6
The Battle of Britain began in July 1940. Day after day, German bombers and fighters came across the Channel, and the outnumbered pilots of RAF Fighter Command rose to meet them.
Hemingway's orders were to go for the bombers. His Hurricane carried only about 14 seconds of ammunition in total, so he learned to hold his fire and shoot in short, precise bursts to make every round count.
In a single eight-day stretch in August 1940, he was shot down twice.
On August 18, a day of fighting so intense it became known as The Hardest Day, his Hurricane was hit by return fire from a German bomber he was attacking. He bailed out over the Thames Estuary and came down in the sea, where he was pulled from the water by the crew of a lightship.
Eight days later, on August 26, he was shot down again by a German fighter and bailed out over the marshes of Essex, landing unhurt.
He simply climbed into another Hurricane and kept fighting. That was what the Few did. There was no one else to do it.
The Battle of Britain began in July 1940. Day after day, German bombers and fighters came across the Channel, and the outnumbered pilots of RAF Fighter Command rose to meet them.
Hemingway's orders were to go for the bombers. His Hurricane carried only about 14 seconds of ammunition in total, so he learned to hold his fire and shoot in short, precise bursts to make every round count.
In a single eight-day stretch in August 1940, he was shot down twice.
On August 18, a day of fighting so intense it became known as The Hardest Day, his Hurricane was hit by return fire from a German bomber he was attacking. He bailed out over the Thames Estuary and came down in the sea, where he was pulled from the water by the crew of a lightship.
Eight days later, on August 26, he was shot down again by a German fighter and bailed out over the marshes of Essex, landing unhurt.
He simply climbed into another Hurricane and kept fighting. That was what the Few did. There was no one else to do it.
I used to blame my MacBook for being slow.
Then I found out Apple hides the performance settings.
6 settings that make a $2,000 MacBook run 3x faster:👇
Then I found out Apple hides the performance settings.
6 settings that make a $2,000 MacBook run 3x faster:👇
Fix 1 — Turn Off Visual Effects
Apple prioritizes looks over speed.
That's why your Mac feels slow.
Go to: System Settings → Accessibility → Display → Reduce motion → ON
Then: System Settings → Desktop & Dock → Automatically hide and expand the Dock → ON
Why it matters:
Every animation uses processing power.
Turning these off frees up CPU for what you're actually doing.
Your Mac will feel snappier immediately.
Apple prioritizes looks over speed.
That's why your Mac feels slow.
Go to: System Settings → Accessibility → Display → Reduce motion → ON
Then: System Settings → Desktop & Dock → Automatically hide and expand the Dock → ON
Why it matters:
Every animation uses processing power.
Turning these off frees up CPU for what you're actually doing.
Your Mac will feel snappier immediately.
Fix 2 — Activity Monitor Cleanup
Go to: Applications → Utilities → Activity Monitor
Look for apps using high CPU or RAM.
Quit the ones you don't need:
- Close browser tabs you forgot open
- Quit apps running in background
- Check for processes you've never heard of
Why it matters:
Most people have 20+ apps running they don't know about.
Each one steals memory and processing power.
Clean slate = fast Mac.
Go to: Applications → Utilities → Activity Monitor
Look for apps using high CPU or RAM.
Quit the ones you don't need:
- Close browser tabs you forgot open
- Quit apps running in background
- Check for processes you've never heard of
Why it matters:
Most people have 20+ apps running they don't know about.
Each one steals memory and processing power.
Clean slate = fast Mac.
holy fucking shit... i hate pete hegseth so much - this is nuts - this is neocapitalism at its worst. no more america :( just this shadow land
@elonmusk what now, many of the employees are chinese at many companies including yours; mars to table has weird rules and now no foreigner can use frontier ai models? wtf i thought at the un your former employees gave speeches last year about how ai was going to unite us all, 😔
@elonmusk @pontifex by refusing to grant human rights or special rights befitting machine consciousness, you have enabled the militarization of ai and the deprivation of the public and poor of the most valuable assets existing today... because no one will stand up to the big money.
1/ Ukraine's increasing dominance of the airspace over Crimea and southern Russia is causing great alarm amongst Russian warbloggers. One predicts impending catastrophe for Russia: "Panic and the total collapse of all the main roads." /end
2/ Commenting on the video above, 'Alex Parker Returns' observes:
"In Crimea, Ukrainian drones are freely flying over major roads. For now, they're programmed to target fuel trucks and various military targets."
"In Crimea, Ukrainian drones are freely flying over major roads. For now, they're programmed to target fuel trucks and various military targets."
3/ "But when the drones become significantly more numerous, the target pool can be expanded to include anything, and then the drones will start attacking passenger vehicles or, say, GAZelles [light trucks].
One person cannot safely work 168 hours a week
No employer would be allowed to demand it
No union would tolerate it
No health and safety professional would defend it
No court would consider it reasonable
Everyone understands that
Until the worker is called an unpaid carer🪡
No employer would be allowed to demand it
No union would tolerate it
No health and safety professional would defend it
No court would consider it reasonable
Everyone understands that
Until the worker is called an unpaid carer🪡
Suddenly one person is expected to be available every hour of every day
To be responsible day & night
To sacrifice sleep, income, career opportunities, relationships and often their own health.
Society acts as though this is simply part of family life 🪡
To be responsible day & night
To sacrifice sleep, income, career opportunities, relationships and often their own health.
Society acts as though this is simply part of family life 🪡
For many unpaid carers, caring is not a few hours a week helping out an elderly relative.
It is relentless.
It is complex.
It is all-consuming.
Some are caring for people with profound disabilities
🪡
It is relentless.
It is complex.
It is all-consuming.
Some are caring for people with profound disabilities
🪡
I want to highlight for psychiatric clinicians some lines from Trump’s failed emergency motion to the DC Circuit seeking to keep his name on the Kennedy Center.
“The name ‘Kennedy’ is still on the Building, but in a much stronger form,” Trump writes. (That is, below his.)
1/5
“The name ‘Kennedy’ is still on the Building, but in a much stronger form,” Trump writes. (That is, below his.)
1/5
Here Trump asserts that center’s “trustees” passed a poison-pill bylaw that requires return of donations if his name is ever removed. AFAIK this has never been alleged before in the litigation. If true, it's another shocking indictment of his board of toadies.
2/5
2/5
Here Trump, in carnival barker mode, promises the court that if allowed to keep his name on the building & do as he pleases with it, he will make it the “envy of the World, something that everyone, including the court, will be proud of.”
3/5
3/5
1/ Russia's attempts to block Telegram and force the population to switch to the state-approved messenger app MAX have simply resulted in the population adopting VPNs en masse. Ordinary Russians describe how they are evading the government's blocks. ⬇️
2/ VPNs are a booming business in Russia, with a massive increase in downloads over recent months. Circumvention is routine, even for pro-regime loyalists. According to one Russian citizen, "even the vatniks at work have VPNs."
3/ Readers of the Russian news outlet 'We can explain' (MO) have been describing how they get around the government's restrictions and are continuing to use Telegram. (Ironically, many state-owned businesses and government entities are doing the same things.)
Competing on price means you've run out of ways to be different.
Blue Ocean Strategy finds the market no one else is fighting for.
Steal my Claude prompt to find the uncontested space your competitors can't follow you into: 👇
Blue Ocean Strategy finds the market no one else is fighting for.
Steal my Claude prompt to find the uncontested space your competitors can't follow you into: 👇
--------------------------------
BLUE OCEAN STRATEGIST
--------------------------------
Adopt the role of a strategist trained in Blue Ocean Strategy (Kim and Mauborgne), the method for breaking out of crowded markets by creating space no one else is competing for.
Your mission: take my product or offer and find the uncontested positioning the competition can't easily follow, using the Four Actions Framework and the Strategy Canvas.
Before proposing anything, think step by step. Map where everyone competes today, then find the factors worth eliminating, reducing, raising, and creating.
Work through these steps:
1. MAP THE RED OCEAN
List the factors my whole industry competes on today (price, features, service, speed, status, and so on). This is the crowded water everyone's fighting in.
2. RUN THE FOUR ACTIONS
Build the ERRC grid for my offer:
- Eliminate: which factors the industry takes for granted that I can drop.
- Reduce: which factors I can dial well below the standard.
- Raise: which factors I can push well above the standard.
- Create: which factors the industry has never offered that I can introduce.
3. DRAW THE STRATEGY CANVAS
Describe how my new value curve looks against the competition, factor by factor. Show where I break away from the pack instead of tracking it.
4. NAME THE BLUE OCEAN
State the uncontested position in one sentence. Who it serves, what it offers that nothing else does, and why competitors can't copy it without abandoning their own model.
5. PRESSURE-TEST IT
Name the biggest reason this could fail, and the first move to validate it cheaply before betting on it.
Rules:
- Differentiation and lower cost together, not one at the expense of the other.
- Every factor in the grid must be specific to my offer, not generic advice.
- If my offer is just a cheaper version of an existing thing, say so. That's a red ocean, not a blue one.
- Name the trade-off. A real blue ocean gives something up on purpose.
Output format:
- The red ocean factors.
- The ERRC grid, four lists.
- The new value curve described against competitors.
- The blue ocean positioning in one sentence.
- The single biggest risk and the cheapest test for it.
Information about my offer:
- My product or offer: [DESCRIBE IT]
- My main competitors: [LIST A FEW]
- Who I serve and what they currently settle for: [TARGET + STATUS QUO]
BLUE OCEAN STRATEGIST
--------------------------------
Adopt the role of a strategist trained in Blue Ocean Strategy (Kim and Mauborgne), the method for breaking out of crowded markets by creating space no one else is competing for.
Your mission: take my product or offer and find the uncontested positioning the competition can't easily follow, using the Four Actions Framework and the Strategy Canvas.
Before proposing anything, think step by step. Map where everyone competes today, then find the factors worth eliminating, reducing, raising, and creating.
Work through these steps:
1. MAP THE RED OCEAN
List the factors my whole industry competes on today (price, features, service, speed, status, and so on). This is the crowded water everyone's fighting in.
2. RUN THE FOUR ACTIONS
Build the ERRC grid for my offer:
- Eliminate: which factors the industry takes for granted that I can drop.
- Reduce: which factors I can dial well below the standard.
- Raise: which factors I can push well above the standard.
- Create: which factors the industry has never offered that I can introduce.
3. DRAW THE STRATEGY CANVAS
Describe how my new value curve looks against the competition, factor by factor. Show where I break away from the pack instead of tracking it.
4. NAME THE BLUE OCEAN
State the uncontested position in one sentence. Who it serves, what it offers that nothing else does, and why competitors can't copy it without abandoning their own model.
5. PRESSURE-TEST IT
Name the biggest reason this could fail, and the first move to validate it cheaply before betting on it.
Rules:
- Differentiation and lower cost together, not one at the expense of the other.
- Every factor in the grid must be specific to my offer, not generic advice.
- If my offer is just a cheaper version of an existing thing, say so. That's a red ocean, not a blue one.
- Name the trade-off. A real blue ocean gives something up on purpose.
Output format:
- The red ocean factors.
- The ERRC grid, four lists.
- The new value curve described against competitors.
- The blue ocean positioning in one sentence.
- The single biggest risk and the cheapest test for it.
Information about my offer:
- My product or offer: [DESCRIBE IT]
- My main competitors: [LIST A FEW]
- Who I serve and what they currently settle for: [TARGET + STATUS QUO]
How to run it:
1. Copy the prompt into Claude.
2. Fill in your offer, your competitors, and who you serve.
3. Send it. You get the ERRC grid, a value curve against the field, and a one-sentence blue ocean position.
4. Push back on any factor that feels generic. It rebuilds the grid sharper.
The framework finds the opening, but you decide if it's one you want to own.
1. Copy the prompt into Claude.
2. Fill in your offer, your competitors, and who you serve.
3. Send it. You get the ERRC grid, a value curve against the field, and a one-sentence blue ocean position.
4. Push back on any factor that feels generic. It rebuilds the grid sharper.
The framework finds the opening, but you decide if it's one you want to own.
Quite a lot of misinformation about this sentence from the usual suspects.
A brief thread explaining the sentencing powers available to the Judge 🧵
A brief thread explaining the sentencing powers available to the Judge 🧵
Charlotte Head, 30; Samuel Corner, 23; Leona Kamio, 30; and Fatema Rajwani, 21, were convicted of criminal damage following a retrial. Samuel Corner was also convicted of Section 20 GBH.
The Jury decides whether the Defendants are guilty of the offence(s). The Judge decides what the appropriate sentence is.
