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Recent
#UglyIndians
It's good that Vir Sanghvi starts elaborating the point that almost every nation goes thru a phase when prosperity enables travel, but good manners don't accompany it.
Some points on Indian tourists:
theprint.in/opinion/sharp-…
It's good that Vir Sanghvi starts elaborating the point that almost every nation goes thru a phase when prosperity enables travel, but good manners don't accompany it.
Some points on Indian tourists:
theprint.in/opinion/sharp-…
* Can afford to travel but are not really rich
* Are rich enough but penny pinch, converting prices to Indian rupees.
* Newly prosperous but have not travelled much even at home. Lack sophistication.
* Inured to not following rules -traffic, noise pollution, queues - at home.
* Are rich enough but penny pinch, converting prices to Indian rupees.
* Newly prosperous but have not travelled much even at home. Lack sophistication.
* Inured to not following rules -traffic, noise pollution, queues - at home.
* The solution & the real requirement is to stamp out corruption and enforce RULES inflexibly within India.
We have been putting up with VIP culture, ViP darshan, VIP convoys, ear-splitting music, murderous driving, food & medicine adulteration & discourteous behaviour for years
We have been putting up with VIP culture, ViP darshan, VIP convoys, ear-splitting music, murderous driving, food & medicine adulteration & discourteous behaviour for years
The primary is just a week away, so you know we've got more questionable ethics to report to you. Let's begin with this piece that landed in AD6 mailboxes last week from a committee called LAB PAC. #nvleg 
LAB PAC's officers are Vince Saavedra of the Southern Nevada Building Trades and Rocky Finseth, who happens to be the lead lobbyist in Nevada for PhRMA. Here's his client list.
Saavedra currently is only listed as a lobbyist for the building trades, but some of you may remember when he also lobbied for John Fisher's Athletics Investment Group.
Documenting the headwinds I now see for AI.
It won't seem like it, but I love AI and am long-term positive. But when "math doesn't math" I take note.
1. The core thesis for foundation model lab investment has been high upfront investment made worthwhile by significant long-term profits.
2. These are capital intensive businesses and the compute commitments are very high relative to revenue and require strong growth over long time periods. The "leverage" (commitments versus revenue) is extremely high.
3. The fundamentals are not as positive as they previously were:
• Input costs are higher (commodities, chips, power)
• Interest rates are higher
• Competition is more intense
• Scaling Laws are now problematic: exponential costs/power cannot continue
4. Forecasting compute spend is challenging and high risk due to (a) revenue uncertainty and (b) algorithm uncertainty
5. Revenue growth appears to be slowing. The technology is valuable, but ROI is proving to be more expensive and take longer than anticipated.
6. The future is likely "different models for different use cases" with the lower end of the market being highly competitive.
7. Core use cases such as agentic software engineering are likely to need approaches beyond next-token prediction. They are Σ₂ᴾ complexity problems requiring multi-objective optimization and likely a combination of Transformers and other methods.
8. Current forecasts in memory makers are built largely on quadratic attention. That will not persist: we are already seeing work from DeepSeek, Minimax and Nvidia that can cut RAM needs by 80% or more.
9. This means semiconductor valuations are substantially overinflated and will go through the traditional glut versus shortage cycle.
10. For foundation model providers: lower costs with competitive differentiation is good. However, lower costs with a lack of differentiation would mean lower revenues. This makes it harder to (a) service commitments and (b) pay back investors.
11. Leverage is substantially higher than in previous cycles, evidenced by leveraged ETFs, call option activity and margin loans. Korea is particularly susceptible.
12. 0DTE options create a profile that has stronger parallels to portfolio insurance and 1987 than any other point I can remember.
13. The combination of exponential increases in call activity coupled with the ties of semiconductors to structured products means there is a non-trivial systemic risk to the financial system.
14. Implied earnings growth rates are inconsistent with other periods in history.
15. Macroeconomically we cannot and should not fund exponential cost increases. History has shown us repeatedly that there are better ways (see Quick Sort and Simplex).
16. Significant supply is hitting the market via IPOs.
––
Taken together: costs and competition are increasing while revenue growth is likely slowing. Valuations are fragile and prone to technology disruptions that are already here. Systemic financial market risk is extremely high.
It won't seem like it, but I love AI and am long-term positive. But when "math doesn't math" I take note.
1. The core thesis for foundation model lab investment has been high upfront investment made worthwhile by significant long-term profits.
2. These are capital intensive businesses and the compute commitments are very high relative to revenue and require strong growth over long time periods. The "leverage" (commitments versus revenue) is extremely high.
3. The fundamentals are not as positive as they previously were:
• Input costs are higher (commodities, chips, power)
• Interest rates are higher
• Competition is more intense
• Scaling Laws are now problematic: exponential costs/power cannot continue
4. Forecasting compute spend is challenging and high risk due to (a) revenue uncertainty and (b) algorithm uncertainty
5. Revenue growth appears to be slowing. The technology is valuable, but ROI is proving to be more expensive and take longer than anticipated.
6. The future is likely "different models for different use cases" with the lower end of the market being highly competitive.
7. Core use cases such as agentic software engineering are likely to need approaches beyond next-token prediction. They are Σ₂ᴾ complexity problems requiring multi-objective optimization and likely a combination of Transformers and other methods.
8. Current forecasts in memory makers are built largely on quadratic attention. That will not persist: we are already seeing work from DeepSeek, Minimax and Nvidia that can cut RAM needs by 80% or more.
9. This means semiconductor valuations are substantially overinflated and will go through the traditional glut versus shortage cycle.
10. For foundation model providers: lower costs with competitive differentiation is good. However, lower costs with a lack of differentiation would mean lower revenues. This makes it harder to (a) service commitments and (b) pay back investors.
11. Leverage is substantially higher than in previous cycles, evidenced by leveraged ETFs, call option activity and margin loans. Korea is particularly susceptible.
12. 0DTE options create a profile that has stronger parallels to portfolio insurance and 1987 than any other point I can remember.
13. The combination of exponential increases in call activity coupled with the ties of semiconductors to structured products means there is a non-trivial systemic risk to the financial system.
14. Implied earnings growth rates are inconsistent with other periods in history.
15. Macroeconomically we cannot and should not fund exponential cost increases. History has shown us repeatedly that there are better ways (see Quick Sort and Simplex).
16. Significant supply is hitting the market via IPOs.
––
Taken together: costs and competition are increasing while revenue growth is likely slowing. Valuations are fragile and prone to technology disruptions that are already here. Systemic financial market risk is extremely high.
1. The core thesis for foundation model lab investment has been high upfront investment made worthwhile by significant long-term profits.
2. These are capital intensive businesses and the compute commitments are very high relative to revenue and require strong growth over long time periods. The "leverage" (commitments versus revenue) is extremely high.
The argument that China has a comparative advantage at industrial policy is a bit like the argument that the US has a comparative advantage at exporting debt. It is a good line, but even quips need a limiting principle ...
1/
1/
I am not sure this week's Free Lunch column came up with that limiting principle; the notion that "the west might be better off simply leveraging the benefits of Chinese scale" suggests getting out of China's way across the board
2/
ft.com/content/42fc2e…
2/
ft.com/content/42fc2e…
But China has -- in Greg Ip's phrase (based on Rhodium's analysis) -- an "industrial policy for everything," which would imply that China is on track (with its comparative advantage at industrial policy) to dominate most industrial sectors
3/
wsj.com/world/china/be…
3/
wsj.com/world/china/be…
This:
>>This is essentially a complete tactical bomber cell in a box, sized for a small mobile drone team operating at brigade level or below. It is not a strategic deep-strike weapon, and it is not pretending to be one.
...is "Federalized airpower."
>>This is essentially a complete tactical bomber cell in a box, sized for a small mobile drone team operating at brigade level or below. It is not a strategic deep-strike weapon, and it is not pretending to be one.
...is "Federalized airpower."
Here are two key concepts for you --
1. Federalized Airpower - local ground unit as opposed to theater air commander asset
2. Kill Chains.
#1 has to do with every ground unit from platoon up owning a bit of airpower (a small UAV) outside central air command.
2/
1. Federalized Airpower - local ground unit as opposed to theater air commander asset
2. Kill Chains.
#1 has to do with every ground unit from platoon up owning a bit of airpower (a small UAV) outside central air command.
2/
#2 has to do with the ability of that UAV to call/deal lethal firepower for ground units w/o or w/little regard to superiors.
This drone kit is one of those subtle military technology developments that is in fact a game changer that brings those two ideas into reality.
3/3
This drone kit is one of those subtle military technology developments that is in fact a game changer that brings those two ideas into reality.
3/3
R.I.P. GOOGLE FLIGHTS IN 2026.
R.I.P. BOOKING COM IN 2026.
R.I.P. SKYSCANNER IN 2026.
$1,190 flight. I paid $159.
Use these 7 prompts before booking your next trip :
R.I.P. BOOKING COM IN 2026.
R.I.P. SKYSCANNER IN 2026.
$1,190 flight. I paid $159.
Use these 7 prompts before booking your next trip :
1. Smart Flight Finder
Prompt:
“I’m flying from [your city] to [destination] around [dates]. Find the cheapest possible flights using flexible timing, alternate airports, and hidden-city routes.”
Prompt:
“I’m flying from [your city] to [destination] around [dates]. Find the cheapest possible flights using flexible timing, alternate airports, and hidden-city routes.”
2. Error Fare Monitor
Prompt:
“Act like a travel deals expert. Look for any current or recent mistake fares or flash sales from [region] to popular destinations — and tell me how to book fast.”
Prompt:
“Act like a travel deals expert. Look for any current or recent mistake fares or flash sales from [region] to popular destinations — and tell me how to book fast.”
I have something to share with you about the Epstein files, and there’s a chance my life becomes harder because of it.
I hope I’m wrong. But I doubt it. 🧵
I hope I’m wrong. But I doubt it. 🧵
2/
The American people have been betrayed on a scale that is almost impossible to comprehend.
The American people have been betrayed on a scale that is almost impossible to comprehend.
3/
Not only did intelligence agencies, elected officials, and power brokers know that children were being trafficked and abused—they offered up their own children for grooming, because protecting their secrets, alliances, operations, careers, and geopolitical interests mattered more than all else.
Not only did intelligence agencies, elected officials, and power brokers know that children were being trafficked and abused—they offered up their own children for grooming, because protecting their secrets, alliances, operations, careers, and geopolitical interests mattered more than all else.
I've spent the last few hours reposting my 2022 to date take down's of Alex Vershinin's "Truck beer math" (from the Nov. 2021 War on the Rocks article "Feeding the Bear") which I used to review this Tochnyi article⬇️
TLDR: Tochnyi screwed up & used Vershinin's disproven work.
1/
TLDR: Tochnyi screwed up & used Vershinin's disproven work.
1/
Specifically this bit stating Russian trucks did three trips a day because they spent one hour loading and one hour unloading trucks.
That is, like Alex Vershinin, they assumed mechanized logistics loading times with pallets & forklifts⬇️
2/
That is, like Alex Vershinin, they assumed mechanized logistics loading times with pallets & forklifts⬇️
2/
This is Alex Vershinin's truck "Beer Math" for comparison.
It assumes 45 miles vice 50 km, but both show the same mirror imaging of Western mechanized logistics on Red/Russian Army non-mechanized logistics.
3/
It assumes 45 miles vice 50 km, but both show the same mirror imaging of Western mechanized logistics on Red/Russian Army non-mechanized logistics.
3/
1/ Hyperliquid may be the most important crypto project people are still underestimating.
Not because it has good memes.
Because it is building what looks like the first serious on-chain financial exchange with real product-market fit, real revenue, and a token that actually captures value.
$HYPE
Not because it has good memes.
Because it is building what looks like the first serious on-chain financial exchange with real product-market fit, real revenue, and a token that actually captures value.
$HYPE
2/ Most crypto projects sell a dream.
Hyperliquid is already selling a product traders use every day.
Perps.
Spot.
On-chain order books.
Self-custody.
Fast execution.
Real liquidity.
This is not “maybe users will come later.”
Users are already here.
Hyperliquid is already selling a product traders use every day.
Perps.
Spot.
On-chain order books.
Self-custody.
Fast execution.
Real liquidity.
This is not “maybe users will come later.”
Users are already here.
3/ The numbers are getting hard to ignore.
Hyperliquid has processed hundreds of billions in trading volume and is now one of the dominant venues for on-chain perpetual futures.
That matters because perps are one of the highest-volume products in all of crypto.
$HYPE
Hyperliquid has processed hundreds of billions in trading volume and is now one of the dominant venues for on-chain perpetual futures.
That matters because perps are one of the highest-volume products in all of crypto.
$HYPE
One is a kirpan: the ceremonial blade Sikhs carry to protect others.
The other is a charra: an Afghan tribal murder dagger built to punch through cloth and armor.
Guess which one killed Henry Nowak?
Nothing religious about this. A murder weapon sanctioned by suicidal empathy.
The other is a charra: an Afghan tribal murder dagger built to punch through cloth and armor.
Guess which one killed Henry Nowak?
Nothing religious about this. A murder weapon sanctioned by suicidal empathy.
Kirpan: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirpan
Conditioning any aid to Israel on kicking Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, and their parties, out of the government would be doing Israel a favor.
At the core, I support Israel as a Jewish state. I also support a state for Palestinian Arabs, to be clear. Statelessness is not an acceptable condition for people.
Israel does need to understand that there are limits and that's for its own good.
Israel does need to understand that there are limits and that's for its own good.
The mainstreaming of Kahanists has to be a red line and America needs to make it clear to Israel that this a path to ruin. I don't think this can be done gently any longer.
Israel can vote for who it wants, sure, but there are consequences to going insane.
Israel can vote for who it wants, sure, but there are consequences to going insane.
🧵OF KEY CONCERNS
We've now read Alan Levinovitz's WIRED piece on Long Covid.
Our concern isn't that it discusses psychological theories.
Our concern is that it repeatedly conflates criticism of evidence with creating a "climate of fear".
Those are not the same thing. /1
We've now read Alan Levinovitz's WIRED piece on Long Covid.
Our concern isn't that it discusses psychological theories.
Our concern is that it repeatedly conflates criticism of evidence with creating a "climate of fear".
Those are not the same thing. /1
1️⃣ CONFUSING VALIDATION WITH EVIDENCE
The article repeatedly blurs two separate claims:
👉 Patients are genuinely ill and deserve to be believed
👉 A specific treatment is effective.
These are different questions requiring different standards of evidence. /2
The article repeatedly blurs two separate claims:
👉 Patients are genuinely ill and deserve to be believed
👉 A specific treatment is effective.
These are different questions requiring different standards of evidence. /2
Believing patients is not the same thing as endorsing treatment claims.
And demanding evidence for treatment claims is not the same thing as denying illness.
Conflating stigma helps no one in the community. /3
And demanding evidence for treatment claims is not the same thing as denying illness.
Conflating stigma helps no one in the community. /3
