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The credit cycle is starting to flash yellow for the first time in this regime
Most investors will only notice once spreads are blowing out
Here’s the framework I use to track the credit cycle and front‑run where capital goes next: 🧵
Most investors will only notice once spreads are blowing out
Here’s the framework I use to track the credit cycle and front‑run where capital goes next: 🧵
First, my macro thesis is simple: Since April we had a massive injection of credit into the underlying economy and liquidity into financial markets. This created procyclical liquidity where growth and liquidity rose at the same time. This is why asset prices melted up.
We are now seeing the beginning of some headwindes in the credit cycle. The entire questions is are these risks shrot term signals or could they materialize into a larger issue?
We are now seeing the beginning of some headwindes in the credit cycle. The entire questions is are these risks shrot term signals or could they materialize into a larger issue?
I am going to lay out all of these macro signals but first I would encourage you to read (or reread!) the macro report I wrote explaining the largest structural risks we are seeing in the system right now. Do we know for sure that these risks will materialize? No but if they do, you need to know exactly what to look for cause that is not an environment where you want to be offsides.
x.com/Globalflows/st…
x.com/Globalflows/st…
His Reflection! 🧵
We are to be the reflection of the LORD to those we encounter each day! When others speak to us, or even when they pass us by, do they see His reflection?
We are to be the reflection of the LORD to those we encounter each day! When others speak to us, or even when they pass us by, do they see His reflection?
When God created all that is, He declared that He (the triune God) was creating us in His image!
Genesis 1:26
And God said, Let Us make man in Our image, after Our likeness.
Genesis 1:26
And God said, Let Us make man in Our image, after Our likeness.
Although we are made in His image, once we are born again by accepting Jesus Christ as our Savior, we must be conformed to His image, by yielding to His Spirit’s work in our lives!
1/14 🧵
Someone asked a holy question. Where can we find Christ in the Old Testament. The truth is everywhere. Once your eyes adjust to the light of Advent, you begin to see Him on every page, speaking through shadow and promise.
Someone asked a holy question. Where can we find Christ in the Old Testament. The truth is everywhere. Once your eyes adjust to the light of Advent, you begin to see Him on every page, speaking through shadow and promise.
2/14
Jesus Himself taught this. He said, Search the scriptures, for they testify of me. John 5:39. He was speaking of the Old Testament. The New had not yet been written. He tells us plainly that He is its beating heart.
Jesus Himself taught this. He said, Search the scriptures, for they testify of me. John 5:39. He was speaking of the Old Testament. The New had not yet been written. He tells us plainly that He is its beating heart.
3/14
Let us begin with Genesis. After the fall, God speaks a promise: It shall bruise thy head, and thou shalt bruise his heel. Genesis 3:15. The Fathers called this the first Gospel. A whisper of the Christ who would crush evil by His cross.
Let us begin with Genesis. After the fall, God speaks a promise: It shall bruise thy head, and thou shalt bruise his heel. Genesis 3:15. The Fathers called this the first Gospel. A whisper of the Christ who would crush evil by His cross.
1. Paramount's hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros exposes Jared Kushner's game
It's not a private equity fund. It's an influence peddling operation.
It's spelled out on page 42 of Paramount's new SEC filing.
popular.info/p/kushner-and-…
It's not a private equity fund. It's an influence peddling operation.
It's spelled out on page 42 of Paramount's new SEC filing.
popular.info/p/kushner-and-…
2. Paramount says its hostile takeover bid is structured to avoid review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS)
Even though the Saudis and other Middle Eastern governments are putting up $24 BILLION -- most of the equity financing.
Even though the Saudis and other Middle Eastern governments are putting up $24 BILLION -- most of the equity financing.
3. Paramount says they've avoided any regulatory hurdles because Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi have voluntarily agreed to waive their governance rights. And one other party has agreed to waive governance rights: JARED KUSHNER.
At the 2025 European Forum Alpbach Defence Lab, we brought politicians, generals, industry, and experts together to answer one question:
What must Europe do to win in Ukraine, become a respected global actor, and adapt to an age of unpeace?
Their 20 key points are here:👇
What must Europe do to win in Ukraine, become a respected global actor, and adapt to an age of unpeace?
Their 20 key points are here:👇
European politicians should…
1. Take deterrence seriously.
As long as our enemies see us undecided, fearful, and shifting burdens, we provoke action. Instead, our enemies should respect European audacity and resolve.
Credible deterrence must be seen and felt.
1. Take deterrence seriously.
As long as our enemies see us undecided, fearful, and shifting burdens, we provoke action. Instead, our enemies should respect European audacity and resolve.
Credible deterrence must be seen and felt.
2. Be ready and united for provocations now.
Stop hiding behind artificial “future readiness” dates, a US help that might not come, or illusions that any one European state can prevail alone.
Stop hiding behind artificial “future readiness” dates, a US help that might not come, or illusions that any one European state can prevail alone.
Most people have never heard of the National Security Strategy (NSS), but it quietly shapes almost everything America does overseas. Let's break down Trump's 2025 NSS, a thread: 🧵
If you would like the full, 8500 word article breakdown, please visit my Substack here: open.substack.com/pub/gbnt1952/p…
By law, every president has to publish an NSS that explains what our goals are, what threats we face, and how we plan to use our power, military, economic, diplomatic, informational, to protect the country.
Think of it as the “playbook” that tells Congress, the Pentagon, the State Department, and our allies: Here’s what we care about and here’s what we’re going to do.
Trump’s new 2025 NSS puts a very different spin on that playbook compared to the last few presidents. It’s openly “America First,” more focused, and much more skeptical of global institutions and vague global causes.
This thread breaks down what’s in it, what’s new, what’s good, and what might be risky; all in plain English that even a progressive can read.
Think of it as the “playbook” that tells Congress, the Pentagon, the State Department, and our allies: Here’s what we care about and here’s what we’re going to do.
Trump’s new 2025 NSS puts a very different spin on that playbook compared to the last few presidents. It’s openly “America First,” more focused, and much more skeptical of global institutions and vague global causes.
This thread breaks down what’s in it, what’s new, what’s good, and what might be risky; all in plain English that even a progressive can read.
Imagine a world in which AI replaces most human labor.
Who should own the AI systems?
44% of Americans say every citizen should own an equal share.
A thread on exclusive new polling from @davidshor and his team at Blue Rose Research, shared with The Bully Pulpit. 1/
Who should own the AI systems?
44% of Americans say every citizen should own an equal share.
A thread on exclusive new polling from @davidshor and his team at Blue Rose Research, shared with The Bully Pulpit. 1/
Do Americans welcome a world in which AI replaces most paid work and they are free to pursue whatever they want? No -- a strong majority believe jobs are important for purpose and dignity. 2/
Unsurprisingly, that belief translates into far more support for some kind of participation-based payment from the government rather than an unconditional and universal basic income. 3/
The private AI chat by @NEARProtocol that offers hardware-backed, verifiable privacy when you interact with AI is live!
Everyone deserves access to the benefits of AI without the risk that their chats and data will leak.
Thanks @ilblackdragon and team for ensuring and protecting our AI privacy <3
Here's a quick walkthrough of how the product works 👇
Everyone deserves access to the benefits of AI without the risk that their chats and data will leak.
Thanks @ilblackdragon and team for ensuring and protecting our AI privacy <3
Here's a quick walkthrough of how the product works 👇
@NEARProtocol @ilblackdragon First head over to private(dot)near(dot)ai.
Login with gmail, GitHub or NEAR Wallet.
The UI is clean and familiar to all the other AI services you use everyday.
Login with gmail, GitHub or NEAR Wallet.
The UI is clean and familiar to all the other AI services you use everyday.
@NEARProtocol @ilblackdragon Next choose the model of your liking from the dropdown menu you want to use at the top and start typing your prompt and upload any relevant files for the task you're about to do.
Detailed 5-Year Health Infrastructure Development (2013-2018) by PTI
A new 7 storey building in LRH with 800 beds and 32 Operation Theatres completed and also construction of Medical and Alied Wards at MTI Lady teading Hospital Peshawar 8 floors (picture from November 2017)
A new 7 storey building in LRH with 800 beds and 32 Operation Theatres completed and also construction of Medical and Alied Wards at MTI Lady teading Hospital Peshawar 8 floors (picture from November 2017)
Renovation of Lady Reading Hospital Peshawar
General face lift
Equipment upgrade such as MRI, Angioplasty machines
New ICU and other wards
New library pharmacy.
Patient transfer
Employee Attendance System
General face lift
Equipment upgrade such as MRI, Angioplasty machines
New ICU and other wards
New library pharmacy.
Patient transfer
Employee Attendance System
Establishment of Casualty Block KTH nears completion.
* 9 floor building
* 265 beds
* Basement parking
* Mass emergency floor & specialized units
* Equipment worth millions for Accident and Emergency. Neuro Surgery, Cardiology also procured.
* 9 floor building
* 265 beds
* Basement parking
* Mass emergency floor & specialized units
* Equipment worth millions for Accident and Emergency. Neuro Surgery, Cardiology also procured.
While the rest of Europe still built warships one by one like cathedrals, the Dutch quietly invented the world’s first military-industrial assembly line.
This is the story of how their floating war machines built a global empire.
This is the story of how their floating war machines built a global empire.
In the 16th century, the Dutch fought for survival against the Spanish.
They had no king, no vast territory, only wind, water, and a stubborn refusal to disappear.
They had no king, no vast territory, only wind, water, and a stubborn refusal to disappear.
To survive, Dutch shipbuilders industrialized shipbuilding centuries before the word “industrial” even existed.
- Standardized parts.
- Repeatable designs.
- Predictable output.
- Standardized parts.
- Repeatable designs.
- Predictable output.
Matrix multiplication is not easy to understand.
Even looking at the definition used to make me sweat, let alone trying to comprehend the pattern. Yet, there is a stunningly simple explanation behind it.
Let's pull back the curtain!
Even looking at the definition used to make me sweat, let alone trying to comprehend the pattern. Yet, there is a stunningly simple explanation behind it.
Let's pull back the curtain!
First, the raw definition.
This is how the product of A and B is given. Not the easiest (or most pleasant) to look at.
We are going to unwrap this.
This is how the product of A and B is given. Not the easiest (or most pleasant) to look at.
We are going to unwrap this.
Here is a quick visualization before the technical details.
The element in the i-th row and j-th column of AB is the dot product of A's i-th row and B's j-th column.
The element in the i-th row and j-th column of AB is the dot product of A's i-th row and B's j-th column.
As I first reported last Friday....Jocelyn Ballantine, the leader of the DOJ prosecution team in the Proud Boys case, is now handling Brian Cole Jr. case.
This is very troubling. Ballantine should be removed from DOJ not given such a sensitive, high profile case.
I just pulled up my copy of a March 9, 2023 court hearing during the PB trial. The defense had discovered an FBI spreadsheet containing messages that disclosed an agent asked for his name to be removed from a CHS (informant) report; that an agent had been asked by a supervisor to delete evidence; and that the DOJ had been monitoring communications between one of the incarcerated Proud Boys and his attorney.
Ballantine, who was not part of the litigation team but oversaw the case, swooped into court on March 9, a few days after Judge Tim Kelly--her former colleague at the DC US Attorney's office where they had worked on at least one case together--cut short the cross examination of the FBI agent on the stand before the jury. A defense attorney started questioning the FBI agent (Miller) about the messages. Kelly adjourned the trial immediately.
Ballantine, as you can read here, claimed the spreadsheet with the incriminating and exculpatory messages contained "classified" material and needed to be returned to the government.
This is just one example of how dirty she is:
This is very troubling. Ballantine should be removed from DOJ not given such a sensitive, high profile case.
I just pulled up my copy of a March 9, 2023 court hearing during the PB trial. The defense had discovered an FBI spreadsheet containing messages that disclosed an agent asked for his name to be removed from a CHS (informant) report; that an agent had been asked by a supervisor to delete evidence; and that the DOJ had been monitoring communications between one of the incarcerated Proud Boys and his attorney.
Ballantine, who was not part of the litigation team but oversaw the case, swooped into court on March 9, a few days after Judge Tim Kelly--her former colleague at the DC US Attorney's office where they had worked on at least one case together--cut short the cross examination of the FBI agent on the stand before the jury. A defense attorney started questioning the FBI agent (Miller) about the messages. Kelly adjourned the trial immediately.
Ballantine, as you can read here, claimed the spreadsheet with the incriminating and exculpatory messages contained "classified" material and needed to be returned to the government.
This is just one example of how dirty she is:
The government is required to produce "Jencks" material, past statements made by government witnesses, to the defense. Here, it appears the DOJ turned over the spreadsheet without realizing there were thousands of lines of texts between this FBI witness and other agents.
Too bad, right?
But no--Ballantine successfully argued the communications were either classified (as told by the FBI LOL) or irrelevant.
Too bad, right?
But no--Ballantine successfully argued the communications were either classified (as told by the FBI LOL) or irrelevant.
As troubling as Ballantine's continued employment by the DOJ--is the fact it appears Jason McCullough, one of the DOJ litigators in the Proud Boys trial who had been demoted by Ed Martin, has been returned to the criminal division at the DC US Attorney's office.
Here is part of McCullough's August 2023 sentencing memo for the Proud Boys. Keep in mind every defendant had already been in prison for more than two years at that point (except for Tarrio, who had been arrested in March 2022) under pretrial detention.
I understand and appreciate the challenge both Bondi and Pirro face in attracting lawyers willing to work at the Trump DOJ. But this is simply unacceptable.
There is NO WAY to clean house at the DOJ while keeping these sort of people in place. It is actually dangerous to do so.
Here is part of McCullough's August 2023 sentencing memo for the Proud Boys. Keep in mind every defendant had already been in prison for more than two years at that point (except for Tarrio, who had been arrested in March 2022) under pretrial detention.
I understand and appreciate the challenge both Bondi and Pirro face in attracting lawyers willing to work at the Trump DOJ. But this is simply unacceptable.
There is NO WAY to clean house at the DOJ while keeping these sort of people in place. It is actually dangerous to do so.
