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Ok, continuing on this thread on the 2025 CMPR...
...first up, China's nuclear warhead totals. This year's report says that warhead production has slowed, with a total in the low 600s, but that the PLA is still on track to have 1000+ warheads by 2030. 
Regarding China's early warning capability, we get a lot more specificity than I've seen before: that China now has IR warning satellites that can detect and warn of an incoming ICBM within minutes.
Has anyone ever worked with GEOS, GeoWorks, New Deal Office, or Breadbox Ensemble on a PC? Well, I decided to load it up on one of my 486 systems today and take it for a spin... including getting online! Let's talk about what I discovered in a 🧵 here!
I decided to install Breadbox Ensemble 4.1.3, which was originally released in 2009. Keep in mind that this would be late in the cycle for, say, a 486 PC, that does give some perspective! Install was text based an a cinch!
After installation, we get to configure a bit. I bumped up the video to 800x600x256, configured use of a DOS mouse driver, and set up my Panasonic dot matrix printer.
🚨NEW: The IRS just published its actual tax audit rates.
Here's who actually gets audited (and how you can protect yourself):
Here's who actually gets audited (and how you can protect yourself):
For all tax returns filed for 2014 through 2022 (most recent data), the IRS has audited 0.40% of individual returns filed.
That means there is a 1 in 250 chance to get audited (on average)
BUT it varies by income significantly...
That means there is a 1 in 250 chance to get audited (on average)
BUT it varies by income significantly...
For 2022 tax year, if you had no positive income (<$0) the chance of an audit is 0.30%.
But if you made between $1-$24,999, the chance of an audit increases to 0.40%.
After you start making more than $25k of income, it drops SIGNIFICANTLY.
But if you made between $1-$24,999, the chance of an audit increases to 0.40%.
After you start making more than $25k of income, it drops SIGNIFICANTLY.
6th Circuit Obstruction: Did Alicia N. Harden (Texas Bar #24078629) Exceed Authority in the Sixth Circuit Clerk’s Office?
rockenhaus.com/6th-circuit-ob…
Attention WLWT - You have a major federal corruption story sitting in your city: @ShereeWLWT @CourtisWLWT @WxLadyKatie @AllisonWeather @WLWT @AKirklen @MikeDardisWLWT @KellyRippin #appellatetwitter #federalgovernment #Cincinnati #Ohio #courts #corruption #tor #darkweb #digitalprivacy #bop #fbi #VA #Veterans
rockenhaus.com/6th-circuit-ob…
Attention WLWT - You have a major federal corruption story sitting in your city: @ShereeWLWT @CourtisWLWT @WxLadyKatie @AllisonWeather @WLWT @AKirklen @MikeDardisWLWT @KellyRippin #appellatetwitter #federalgovernment #Cincinnati #Ohio #courts #corruption #tor #darkweb #digitalprivacy #bop #fbi #VA #Veterans
#federalcorruption
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Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Key Summary 2025
In December 2024 we said two things that upset people:
- There's plenty of war left
- We hope Russia advances 4000 square kilometers (Hold your outrage)
We'll be covering in this thread 🧵on what that meant in 2025, and beyond
In December 2024 we said two things that upset people:
- There's plenty of war left
- We hope Russia advances 4000 square kilometers (Hold your outrage)
We'll be covering in this thread 🧵on what that meant in 2025, and beyond
2/ In 2025, the war was firmly settled into attritional drone warfare, where Russia decided that they'd save their few remaining vehicles and attempt to advance with manpower, taking and accepting the resultant trade off in personnel casualties.
Warspotting shows equipment losses are about 60% of 2024 (when you factor in lag time and an additional 500 or so to come). Tanks are at 519 this year vs 1139 last, and AFVs are at 1316 this year vs 3073 last. It's not difficult to see why the personnel casualties have rocketed
Warspotting shows equipment losses are about 60% of 2024 (when you factor in lag time and an additional 500 or so to come). Tanks are at 519 this year vs 1139 last, and AFVs are at 1316 this year vs 3073 last. It's not difficult to see why the personnel casualties have rocketed
3/ Russian infantry losses mounted dramatically reaching approx ~100,000 KIA this year & so many hundreds of thousands wounded, and neither side can manoeuvre freely without catastrophic exposure. Where vehicles are used, they are often met with destruction before they even reach the front.
Last December in 2024 our internal lowest estimate was ~184k KIA total for the war, so you can see what a large increase this year has had.
Some estimates put KIA for the war as high as 400k, others around 300k. Mediazona's confirmed and verified KIA is over 156,000, and they physically can't keep up and they know they are very very behind.
Do you now see why we said we wanted Russia to advance 4000 sq kilometers or less than 1% of Ukraine?
Last December in 2024 our internal lowest estimate was ~184k KIA total for the war, so you can see what a large increase this year has had.
Some estimates put KIA for the war as high as 400k, others around 300k. Mediazona's confirmed and verified KIA is over 156,000, and they physically can't keep up and they know they are very very behind.
Do you now see why we said we wanted Russia to advance 4000 sq kilometers or less than 1% of Ukraine?
A thread of useful concepts to equip you for 2026:
1. 1% rule: In online communities, around 1% of users produce almost all of the content. As such, what you see online is not representative of humanity, but merely of a loud, obsessive (and often narcissistic) minority. Social media is literally a freakshow.
2. Slopaganda: More online articles are written by AI than by humans. And AI is now better at persuading people than most people are. Who wins in a world of unlimited propaganda? Not those with the best arguments, but those with the most slop.
This is a fantastic piece in @quillette by Chama Mechtaly about a conflict that is barely understood. For all the focus on Israel & Gaza, not least on Western streets, there is very little attention on Sudan. A short 🧵on this fascinating piece & the wider conflict.
This story starts in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, in 1967. In the wake of Israel’s stunning victory in the Six Day War, Arab countries came together to express their unity and issued the infamous “Three noes”. The path was set for Sudan to remain a safe space for Islamism.
Squalid military dictatorships followed in Sudan until 1989, when Omar al-Bashir takes control and rules for 30 years. During this time, Sudan hosts bin-Laden, institutes strict Sharia and aligns with political Islamists.
1/ Most product management books are consultant fluff that'll get you eaten alive in the real world.
These 5 work for technical PMs transitioning to product:
These 5 work for technical PMs transitioning to product:
2/ User Story Mapping (Jeff Patton)
Stop writing endless Jira tickets with "as a user" templates.
This maps complex technical systems to actual user behavior.
The "Using Discovery for Validated Learning" chapter kills unnecessary features before they waste engineering time.
Stop writing endless Jira tickets with "as a user" templates.
This maps complex technical systems to actual user behavior.
The "Using Discovery for Validated Learning" chapter kills unnecessary features before they waste engineering time.
3/ Demand-Side Sales 101 (Bob Moesta)
Technical PMs struggle because they don't understand why users BUY.
This reveals more about user needs than 100 customer interviews.
The "Forces of Progress" framework shows what actually drives purchase decisions.
Technical PMs struggle because they don't understand why users BUY.
This reveals more about user needs than 100 customer interviews.
The "Forces of Progress" framework shows what actually drives purchase decisions.
‼️ NEW BONDI INTEL:
Intelligence indicates Ostrovsky moved to Australia only two weeks prior to the incident, raising questions in OSINT circles about the timing of his presence and the subsequent high-profile nature of the attack involving a known Israeli influence asset.
Intelligence indicates Ostrovsky moved to Australia only two weeks prior to the incident, raising questions in OSINT circles about the timing of his presence and the subsequent high-profile nature of the attack involving a known Israeli influence asset.
The recently released Handala contacts list serves as a master list of the influence network Ostrovsky operates within. This list exposes direct communication lines between Israeli government officials, intelligence-adjacent NGOs, and foreign influence agents.
By cross-referencing the Bondi incident's operational environment with the Handala contact list, the following individuals are identified as part of the same influence cluster.
Fantastic! Congratulations to Doc & Charles.
Friends, please support this important work! 💕
@CatsRule2023
Friends, please support this important work! 💕
@CatsRule2023
Independent scientists with a heart to help @KevinMcCairnPhD 💕 & @CharlesRixey 💕.
Please click the "Support & Sponsorship" button at
& support their important work. synapteklabs.com
Please click the "Support & Sponsorship" button at
& support their important work. synapteklabs.com
Last week saw the release of the 2025 China Military Power Report (CMPR). For those not familiar, this is DoD’s Congressionally-mandated unclassified update on the Chinese military. It’s an annual feast of open-source data.
So, here are few thoughts (Part 1) on the report:
So, here are few thoughts (Part 1) on the report:
I'll focus on those things that I thought were most noteworthy: significant changes from previous reports, reveals of information not previously seen in the open-source world, etc.
Where there is a point of comparison I'll have the new report on the left, older on the right.
Where there is a point of comparison I'll have the new report on the left, older on the right.
The new report is fairly different: for one thing, it clocks in at 100 pages to the previous report's 182.
From the top, the preface differs: the 2024 report's reads mostly like an intel product, where there's more proclamation of administration policy in the new one.
From the top, the preface differs: the 2024 report's reads mostly like an intel product, where there's more proclamation of administration policy in the new one.
my favorite way to use Claude Code to build large features is spec based
start with a minimal spec or prompt and ask Claude to interview you using the AskUserQuestionTool
then make a new session to execute the spec
start with a minimal spec or prompt and ask Claude to interview you using the AskUserQuestionTool
then make a new session to execute the spec
for big features or new projects Claude might ask me 40+ questions and I end up with a much more detailed spec that I feel I had a lot of control over
the prompt I've been using is:
read this @SPEC.md and interview me in detail using the AskUserQuestionTool about literally anything: technical implementation, UI & UX, concerns, tradeoffs, etc. but make sure the questions are not obvious
be very in-depth and continue interviewing me continually until it's complete, then write the spec to the file
read this @SPEC.md and interview me in detail using the AskUserQuestionTool about literally anything: technical implementation, UI & UX, concerns, tradeoffs, etc. but make sure the questions are not obvious
be very in-depth and continue interviewing me continually until it's complete, then write the spec to the file
