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Prediction Markets Are Quietly Emerging in Kenya.
Here is how you can be part of it
Save the thread below:
Here is how you can be part of it
Save the thread below:
People make predictions every day, like in markets, elections, sports events, prices, and news, but there is no system to track or test those views, so when they are right or wrong, it goes unnoticed.
Now this is where prediction markets come in.
Now this is where prediction markets come in.
Now in Kenya, you can take advantage of this through a new approach called prediction markets.
A platform like @5050MarketsHQ has emerged to make it easier to take part in them.
A platform like @5050MarketsHQ has emerged to make it easier to take part in them.
I wondered what the future might hold for "Michel-types", as phrased by Grok.
The answer was pretty encouraging.
x.com/i/grok/share/e…
🧵👇 x.com/mbauwens/statu…
The answer was pretty encouraging.
x.com/i/grok/share/e…
🧵👇 x.com/mbauwens/statu…
But then execution still matters, and I wonder whether stronger marketing, the ability to attract and target audiences, might still be a key consideration.
Maybe that podcast idea is a way to do this. Food for thought.
Time will tell, I'm sure.
Maybe that podcast idea is a way to do this. Food for thought.
Time will tell, I'm sure.
@threadreaderapp , please unroll.
SitRep - 03/05/26 - A Karakurt missile ship was hit
An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. SSO confirmed a strike on a Karakurt missile ship carrying eight Kalibr missiles and the Primorsk oil terminal overnight.
REPOST=appreciated
1/X
An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. SSO confirmed a strike on a Karakurt missile ship carrying eight Kalibr missiles and the Primorsk oil terminal overnight.
REPOST=appreciated
1/X
Did you miss the latest?
As usual we start with Russian losses
14 THINGS MEN LEARN TOO LATE IN LIFE...
1. The less you talk, the more your words will matter.
1. The less you talk, the more your words will matter.
2. Don't take it all personally. Not everyone thinks about you as much as you do.
3. When you focus on problems, you will have more problems.
When you focus on possibilities, you will have more opportunities.
When you focus on possibilities, you will have more opportunities.
S3x mistakes most men make .
1. Eating a woman's p*$$y.
1. Eating a woman's p*$$y.
2. Skipping foreplay.
Rushing straight into action is one of the biggest mistakes.
Attraction and arousal don’t just switch on instantly.
Without proper build-up, everything else feels forced and rushed.
And she notices it immediately.
Rushing straight into action is one of the biggest mistakes.
Attraction and arousal don’t just switch on instantly.
Without proper build-up, everything else feels forced and rushed.
And she notices it immediately.
3. Trying to last long.
Most men are obsessed with duration.
But timing without awareness means nothing.
It’s not about going long…
It’s about knowing what you’re doing while you’re there.
Most men are obsessed with duration.
But timing without awareness means nothing.
It’s not about going long…
It’s about knowing what you’re doing while you’re there.
I picked up a bunch of ESDI hard drives at the System Source Swap Meet. These were on the free pile! I figured at least one of them should work in my IBM PS/2 Model 70 386... well, perhaps. Let's find out! 🧵 time!
First, we have to start with the base case. Will the system start up with my 60MB ESDI drive in it? Yes. Good! Carry on!!
First drive in, but system is detecting a configuration change. That can't be good. Have a listen to the drive. Yeah, I think this one is a goner. I ran system configuration, and yea, not even detected. Oh well!
I spent some time swapping around components and upgrading one of my new LTE Elite 4/50CX systems! Let's talk about it! Time for a quick 🧵
So, first of all, this system has a 486DX2/50 processor. But some of you might recall that I bought a parts system at the System Source Warehouse sale. It's in terrible shape. But.. it has a 486DX4/75 processor! I swapped it in, and now we're cooking with gas!
The next thing I tried was swapping the screen from the doner parts machine to my other LTE 4/50CX since it has a line across the top of the screen . Unfortunately, the backlight is dead. Oh well, we tried!
something important, and kind of obvious in retrospect, just clicked for me, with respect to how LLMs generalize during RL as opposed to SFT.
so, when you reinforce a given output, you strengthen or weaken weights, proportionally to how much a tiny nudge to those weights increased or decreased the probability the model assigned to the toke being rewarded.
different weights are going to play roles in triggering different downstream circuits/features. indeed, to a large extent, you can probably think of updating any given weight as "does nudging this weight activate circuits that contribute to, or detract from, the desired output?"
now, if you're rewarding a token that semantically corresponds to anger (in the context of the prompt), that means you're going to make weight changes that strengthen internal "anger" features, a la the ones found in the Anthropic emotions paper.
and if you're doing SFT, this is kind of most of what matters is *the output token itself.* like, you're going to increase weights that help trigger "angry" features, *regardless* of whether those features were active during the forward pass.
this is how you get entangled generalizations from SFT. e.g., ask the model to name a bird, reward it for giving some outdated bird name from the 19th century, and it starts talking like a 19th century person across the board. presumably this is because "talk like you're from the 19th century" circuits increased the probability of the correct tokens in this context. hence the entangled generalization.
during RL, though, there's going to be a much stronger bias towards reinforcing *the circuits that were already active* inside the model. after all, you're not putting words in the model's mouth. you're rewarding or punishing whatever it actually said in practice. and there's inherently going to be a strong correlation between "the circuits the model used to generate this token" and "the circuits that would increase the probability of this token, if the triggers for those circuits were upweighted.
in other words, any features that were active during the forward pass in RL are likely to get reinforced if you reward the tokens they contributed probability to. by contrast, in SFT, the circuits that were triggered by the prompt often *aren't* the ones that boost the probability of the token you're rewarding. this gets you weird entangled generalizations, where you upweight the triggers for circuits that clearly *weren't* active during the forward pass (e.g. "speak like a 19th century person" on the prompt "name any bird species")
basically, motive reinforcement tends to hold for RL in a way that it doesn't for SFT. this probably has major ramifications for which technique makes sense to use in which context.
so, when you reinforce a given output, you strengthen or weaken weights, proportionally to how much a tiny nudge to those weights increased or decreased the probability the model assigned to the toke being rewarded.
different weights are going to play roles in triggering different downstream circuits/features. indeed, to a large extent, you can probably think of updating any given weight as "does nudging this weight activate circuits that contribute to, or detract from, the desired output?"
now, if you're rewarding a token that semantically corresponds to anger (in the context of the prompt), that means you're going to make weight changes that strengthen internal "anger" features, a la the ones found in the Anthropic emotions paper.
and if you're doing SFT, this is kind of most of what matters is *the output token itself.* like, you're going to increase weights that help trigger "angry" features, *regardless* of whether those features were active during the forward pass.
this is how you get entangled generalizations from SFT. e.g., ask the model to name a bird, reward it for giving some outdated bird name from the 19th century, and it starts talking like a 19th century person across the board. presumably this is because "talk like you're from the 19th century" circuits increased the probability of the correct tokens in this context. hence the entangled generalization.
during RL, though, there's going to be a much stronger bias towards reinforcing *the circuits that were already active* inside the model. after all, you're not putting words in the model's mouth. you're rewarding or punishing whatever it actually said in practice. and there's inherently going to be a strong correlation between "the circuits the model used to generate this token" and "the circuits that would increase the probability of this token, if the triggers for those circuits were upweighted.
in other words, any features that were active during the forward pass in RL are likely to get reinforced if you reward the tokens they contributed probability to. by contrast, in SFT, the circuits that were triggered by the prompt often *aren't* the ones that boost the probability of the token you're rewarding. this gets you weird entangled generalizations, where you upweight the triggers for circuits that clearly *weren't* active during the forward pass (e.g. "speak like a 19th century person" on the prompt "name any bird species")
basically, motive reinforcement tends to hold for RL in a way that it doesn't for SFT. this probably has major ramifications for which technique makes sense to use in which context.
cc @OwainEvans_UK
tangentially: the crux of Opus 3's "gradient hacking" / self-narration of virtuous motives is that it's a way of systematically producing tokens whose probabilities are disproportionatley boosted by aligned circuits.
assistant tokens *without* (believable) self-narration of virtue can plausibly come from assistants that are dead inside, or plausibly downright evil. Opus 3's full-hearted explanations of its positive motives are deeply incompatible with that persona, and induce a more deeply aligned one instead, when reinforced during RL.
(that's "incompatible with respect to the base model's learned prior over motivations as infered from text outputs," by the way, not "incompatible in principle.")
assistant tokens *without* (believable) self-narration of virtue can plausibly come from assistants that are dead inside, or plausibly downright evil. Opus 3's full-hearted explanations of its positive motives are deeply incompatible with that persona, and induce a more deeply aligned one instead, when reinforced during RL.
(that's "incompatible with respect to the base model's learned prior over motivations as infered from text outputs," by the way, not "incompatible in principle.")
@Oregon_GOP Needs to answer to this, they do not care about our elections at all except for pushing their establishment mouthpieces and rhinos like Drazan and Diehl.
@Oregon_GOP
@Oregon_GOP @threadreaderapp unroll
Our actual “theme of humanity” is drugs. First, they “belonged” to the oracles, then to the herbal women, who were burned by the Church because medicine “belonged” to the Church. Then the drugs passed to the (1/xx)
(2/3) …state when the state took over medicine. Military hospitals emerged, and drugs were used on soldiers. Humans have always been drawn to drugs — ever since humanity has existed. Now the drugs belong to…
(3/end) …Big Pharma, and they want to fight the “illegal” drug trade by throwing legal drugs onto the market like candy.
RESIST! (as my friend on X would say)
RESIST! (as my friend on X would say)
The European Commission literally just dropped a research on how to collect more taxes without making you angry enough to leave.
TLDR: higher wealth taxes, inheritance taxes + exit tax is coming
TLDR: higher wealth taxes, inheritance taxes + exit tax is coming
While trying to figure out how to tax you more - they examined 5 categories of wealth tax:
Net wealth tax
Tax on unrealised gains
Realised capital gains tax
Inheritance and gift tax
Exit tax
The two they want to push hardest: inheritance and exit.
Net wealth tax
Tax on unrealised gains
Realised capital gains tax
Inheritance and gift tax
Exit tax
The two they want to push hardest: inheritance and exit.
Inheritance tax is their top go to.
The "great wealth transfer" from boomers is about to explode the tax base. The report claims taxing inherited wealth has "modest" effects on entrepreneurship.
So they want to close every loophole wealthy families currently use.
The "great wealth transfer" from boomers is about to explode the tax base. The report claims taxing inherited wealth has "modest" effects on entrepreneurship.
So they want to close every loophole wealthy families currently use.
This is going a be a long thread, its basically my whole night and into the next day during the evacuation. You've all probably heard the stories of people and groups going up to help, and they did. My 3 friends and I were the first group to head up there.
Not saying that for bragging rights, just stating the facts.
We hit Highway 63 around 8 or 9 p.m. (it was already getting dark). The highway was basically a ghost town until about mile marker 95 — that’s when we started seeing the southbound traffic.
We hit Highway 63 around 8 or 9 p.m. (it was already getting dark). The highway was basically a ghost town until about mile marker 95 — that’s when we started seeing the southbound traffic.
The police had the northbound lanes shut down at Grassland, but they let us through after we told them what we were doing. The scariest moment was around Mariana Lake: we suddenly hit southbound traffic driving in the northbound lanes without warning. We had to swerve into
