Thread by @CarmiOmer

#G7Summit apperead to be a success of mediation efforts when #Trump expressed readiness to meet Rouhani “if the circumstances were correct”. Yet a day later, #Rouhani & #Zarif took a step back, and #Khamenei's website forbade Negotiations with the #US washin.st/2NMOatP
1/10

What happened? One option is that #Khamenei wasn't fully aware that #Zarif’s G7 overture would turn into a high-profile effort to resume talks, and decided to block it. He has already done so to Ahmadinejad in 09', when he negotiated over the TRR deal washin.st/2NMOatP
2/10

Alternatively, the reversal might also stem from Trump's narrative that #Iran will soon be compelled to enter negotiations out of weakness. Such rhetoric tends to be a red flag for the regime, since it hinders it from saving face washin.st/2NMOatP
3/10 @WashInstitute

Whatever happened behind the scenes in #Tehran, it is now clearer what is the regime’s strategy and how it may shape future talks -- even unintentionally washin.st/2NMOatP
4/10 @WashInstitute

1) #Iran has been steadily working to open messaging channels to Trump via his trusted partners, mostly France & Japan. As Macron noted at the #G7summit, the mediators may form part of a coalition of negotiators in future discussions. washin.st/2NMOatP
5/10 @WashInstitute

2) #Iran and #Rouhani are setting a high threshold for reentering talks with Washington, at least for the time being (Tehran has shown in the past that it can be flexible on such demands if needed) washin.st/2NMOatP
6/10 @WashInstitute

Stating firm preconditions can help Rouhani achieve 2 ends. Domesticiclly it may appease some of its critics—including Khamenei—by reassuring them that #Iran will enter talks without major American concessions (removing sanctions and rejoining #JCPOA) washin.st/2NMOatP
7/10

Internationally it may push #EU to give #Iran economic concessions ahead of talks. These may include INSTEX and Iran's new demand - "Credit Lines" that it can use to buy goods in return for oil. #Macron mentioned it in his G7 remarks washin.st/2NMOatP
8/10 @WashInstitute

3) #Iran is raising the hypothetical costs of the “no deal” scenario in order to pressure Europe on expediting INSTEX and providing similar other concessions. Expect the 3rd step of decreasing its commitment to #JCPOA on September 6 washin.st/2NMOatP
9/10 @WashInstitute

One key question stands out: does #Iran believe #Trump will waive key sanctions in an election year, or is it making extreme demands solely to prod EU/US into making lesser concessions? The answer may determine if talks are feasible washin.st/2NMOatP
10/10 @WashInstitute