Thread by @RickRieder

The March #JobsReport released this morning largely reflects lagged conditions, as there’s a mismatch between the timing of #coronavirus-related developments later in the month of March, and the timing of the @BLS_gov’s establishment survey earlier in the month.

And the decline in nonfarm #payrolls, of -701,000 jobs, while a sharp reversal from strong Jan/Feb #employment figures, is going to get much worse in the months to come, as the #BLS’s surveys catch up with the reality of significant #economic shutdowns across most states.

Therefore, #employment data such as today’s report, and initial and continuing claims for #unemployment, will grow in importance from here as a broad barometer of #economic health and for understanding the transition of the #economy through this crisis.

That said, the #fiscal policy embodied in the #CARESAct contains potent stimulus that is being systematically underestimated by conventional wisdom. Indeed, nearly all of the targeted categories of the #legislation have meaningful multipliers associated with them.

Further, as @federalreserve policy is concerned, we’re convinced that its response was truly historic, wholly debunking the incorrect notion that the central #bank’s #policy toolkit is finite.

Together, these actions are staggering and unprecedented, and will go some distance toward helping to cushion the #economic blow of this #healthcrisis and help get the country to the other side.