Thread by @jseldin

Coalition "believe the threat against ISIS remains & that they need to be involved in the ongoing campaign"
@StateDept Deputy Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat #ISIS William Roebuck tells @USIP

#ISIS in NE #Syria-"They don't have safe-haven, largely" per @StateDept's Roebuck "They're under significant CT pressure from our partner force, the Syrian Democratic Forces"

"#ISIS struggles to finance its operations now" per @StateDept's Roebuck

Note: @DefenseIntel estimates #ISIS still has $50 million to $300 million in reserves, per latest @DoD_IG report

"#ISIS remains a significant threat, & that's why the military presence is still there" per @StateDept's Roebuck

"It isn't an increasing threat" he adds "It's not able to mount sophisticated attacks, operations or to tactically coordinate"

"Most of what you see it launching is against targets of opportunity, assassination against individuals for example who cooperate" w/#SDF, per @StateDept's Roebuck

#ISIS fighters held by #SDF in "really, jerry-rigged prison facilities" per @StateDept's Roebuck

"We're working w/the #SDF to strengthen the physical security of these prisons, to help them expand detention facilities for juveniles, for women..."

#alHol - US providing humanitarian assistance to the IDP camp w/thousands of #ISIS family members, but also working "to do some of the task that will begin to allow for disengagement and reintegration, the very first steps" per @StateDept's Roebuck

Per @StateDept's Roebuck, reintegration efforts include vocational training, psychosocial support

#COVID19 "It's been a significant challenge" in NE #Syria "and is likely to increase going forward" per @StateDept's Roebuck

"Many of the displaced do not have access to civil documentation" @Refugees’ @philippaUNHCR tells @USIP of critical protection issues for #ISIS displaced ppl in #Iraq

"Many of these populations have gone through severe, traumatic events & will need support in dealing"

#COVID19 - IDPs - "They have lost their livelihood opportunities" per @philippaUNHCR

Key aim "to improve the conditions in the prisons, both from a security perspective & also I would argue from a humanitarian perspective" @CENTCOM Dir. of Operations MajGen Alex @grynkewich tells @USIP

"...crucial to laying the foundation for any future reintegration efforts"

"There are tailored solutions for different parts of that population" per @CENTCOM's @grynkewich "part of that is a repatriation issue..."

NEW: "We do have a fair amount of evidence that some of the individuals in that camp, especially at #alHol, are not just family members associated w/#ISIS proper but some of them are fighters who just happen to be female in some cases" per @CENTCOM's MajGen @grynkewich

Int'l tribunals for #ISIS fighters? "Countries, individually, are better suited to try these people for their crimes" per @StateDept's Roebuck "If you go the route of tribunals the judicial process will be lengthy..."

.@StateDept's Roebuck says "the general preference" remains for #ISIS fighters to be repatriated and tried in their countries of origin

#ISIS children - critical "to avoid a situation, 1st of all, where we have children in detention or incarceration for long period of time because that is not going to lead to healthy outcomes" per @philippaUNHCR

Need to look at education, individualized approaches and ways to reintegrate children of #ISIS parents so they "are not stigmatized for their parents' background" per @philippaUNHCR

"The enduring defeat of #ISIS has got to incorporate a way forward for the displaced persons and all the other people that are at risk across the theater" @CENTCOM Cmdr Gen Frank McKenzie tells @USIP "I feel that very strongly"

"While pockets of determined fighters remain in both countries [#Iraq #Syria] local security forces have prevented #ISIS from reorganizing into a viable threat" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie

"We believe they [#ISIS] continue to aspire to regain control of physical territory" warns @CENTCOM's McKenzie "Without sustained pressure they have the potential to do so in a relatively short period of time"

"The international community needs to support repatriation efforts" for #ISIS fighters "or coalition de-ISIS efforts may be for naught" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie

End of US-led campaign vs #ISIS - "There's not going to be a significant victory celebration. There's not going to be a clear-cut military victory" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie

NEW: In #Iraq, #Syria "We can look to a future where security forces, local security forces answerable to local elected leadership or appointed leadership, are going to be able to handle it without extensive outside help" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie "That's what we've got to aim for"

"We actually remain completely focused on #Syria & operations against #ISIS" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie

.@CENTCOM's McKenzie notes "supplementary task" of aiding #SDF defend oil fields in #Syria to get money to fight #ISIS

NEW: "I don't think we're going to be in #Syria forever" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie "I don't know how long we're going to be in Syria. That's going to be a political decision...We'll be ready to respond to that. At some point, we do want to get smaller there"

"West of the #Euphrates River, areas where we do not control, where the [#Syria] regime controls ground w/their #Russia patrons, the conditions are as bad or worse than those that spawned the original rise of #ISIS" warns @CENTCOM's McKenzie

In @CENTCOM region, "We remain focused on #Iran as our central problem..." per Gen. McKenzie

Displaced persons: "Unless we find a way to repatriate, to deradicalize, to bring these ppl who are at grave risk in these camps, back, preferably to their nations that they came from...we're buying a strategic problem 10 years down the road" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie

"We're going to do this all over again" warns @CENTCOM's Gen McKenzie on potential failure to address IDPs, #ISIS family members "I would prefer to avoid that"

Young IDPs in #Syria, "We're going to see them again unless we can find a way to turn them in a way that will make them productive members of society" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie

#alHol #Syria "It's not a good place to live" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie "Bad things are going to happen if you keep a lot of ppl there. bad things are going to happen in terms of radicalization & bad things are going to happen in terms of #COVID"

"It's concerning to me that we're moving so slowly" on repatriation" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie "Because we can either deal with this problem now or deal with this exponentially worse a few years down the word"

#Syria #alHol #ISIS

"If we stay where we are, we're going to have huge problems-huge problems in the near term, I think with lots of ppl potentially dying, and huge problems in the long term bcs I have yet to see a scheme that can deal w/deradicalization at scale" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie

NEW: #ISIS-#Syria-#Turkey "I don't have any particular visibility into what's happening inside Turkish controlled areas...I just don't know" per @CENTCOM's McKenzie

"I don't have any evidence that I'm aware aware that anybody's been smuggled out of the camp" to #Turkey, he adds

"I just don't see any way to go forward without some form of repatriation" for #ISIS fighters, families in #Syria,
per @CENTCOM's McKenzie

"I'm happy to provide the resources to move them...I can move them anywhere in the world and very quickly in a safe & transparent manner"