Thread by @Chxta

As per @BusinessDayNg's rules, I had written this piece before @ecowas_cedeao kinda agreed to let the #Mali coup plotters get away with it... bit.ly/3blLn4n

So keep that in mind when reading the whole thing. Given BusinessDay's paywall, I’ll only post a small part...

There are multiple risks involved in permitting military interventions.

There is the risk of Goita’s junta in #Mali shrinking the civic and democratic space if allowed to stay in office without a definite timeline for returning the country to democratic rule.

In addition, there is the risk that it is unlikely to honour the timeline if one is eventually reached.

But most importantly for us in #Nigeria, is the risk of contagion.

Coups beget coups.

Many of Africa’s “longest-serving” leaders, including Bouteflika in #Algeria (he got 81% of the vote last time out), Mubarak in #Egypt and Mugabe in #Zimbabwe were essentially toppled by coups after popular discontent followed elections in which they “won” handsomely.

The same applied to Bashir in #Sudan, while in #Nigeria’s immediate abroad, #Cameroun, Paul Biya, who has been re-elected handily on a number of occasions is presiding over an undeclared civil war.

When democratic rule is so brazenly undermined, provide cover for soldiers to seize power in the name of restoring — not disrupting — democracy.
#BurkinaFaso, #cotedivoire & #Guinea, all sharing borders with #Mali, have elections coming soon.

These 3 countries possess similar political dynamics as #Mali did before the contentious vote that saw IBK retain power.

In #Guinea, Alpha Conde has just decided to toss the Constitution, “democratically” of course. In #cotedivoire, Alassane Ouattara is playing similar games.

In both countries, there are powerful groups that are unhappy and have supporters in their militaries.

If the junta in #Mali is allowed to remain in power, it could encourage the militaries in these countries to have ideas, and from there it could spread.

That is how the disease of coup making spread in #WestAfrica shortly after the rash of independence celebrations in 1960.

So what is #Nigeria’s interest you might ask?

Nigeria is the behemoth in #WestAfrica, and is just as unstable as any of these countries.

Indeed, Ouattara’s #cotedivoire is arguably more stable.

If the disease of coups begins to spread, if @ecowas_cedeao allows the #Mali junta to get away with it, then the risk of some discontented idiots in our barracks here having ideas goes up.

At a time when our military is active in operations in all states of the federation bar Kebbi and Abuja, the last thing we need is a misguided attempt at “steadying the flagging ship of state”.

What we need is for us to learn to dialogue with each other in this democratic experiment, no matter how obnoxious we find people from the other side to be.

I can give two examples of how, and why the best military government is worse than the worst democratic government, no matter how bad things may appear.

On 15 August 1947, two countries were born in South-East Asia, both colonised by the British.

In both of them, the first set(s) of elections were heavily rigged. In both of them, there were games of musical chairs of politicians after each rigged election.

By October 1958, the military in one of these countries had had enough and conducted a coup.

That country went on to have a total of four successful changes of government via the instrument of coup d’état.

In the other, despite all the political higi-haga, the military never intervened.

So what are their outcomes?

Today, #Pakistan in which the military seized power 4 times, has a GDP of $284 billion, and most tellingly, HDI of 0.56.

Its next-door neighbour, #India, where the military stayed away, has a GDP of $2.93 trillion and a HDI of 0.65.

#India’s GDP is 10x #Pakistan's alongside whom it started the journey to nationhood, and despite having 6x Pakistan’s population, its people live better.

If these stats don’t provide an illuminating verdict on the outcomes of military intervention, I don’t know what else will.

It is in #Nigeria’s strategic interest, to ensure that the thugs in #Mali do not get away with it.