Thread by @phenomstruck

@IHME_UW (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) and @UWMedicine (University of Washington’s School of Medicine), no lightweights, have come out with
global projections of #COVID19 by nation.
Short summary 👇

healthdata.org/news-release/f…

They modelled 3 scenarios:
1. Worse case:
- mask usage stays at current rates, and,
- governments continue relaxing social distancing requirements.
This leads to 4.0 million total deaths by the end of the year.

Best case:
- mask usage is near-universal, and,
- governments impose social distancing requirements when their daily death rate exceeds 8 per million.
This leads to 2.0 million total deaths if by the end of the year.

3. Most likely:
- individual mask use and other mitigation measures remain unchanged.
This leads to approximately 2.8 million total deaths by the end of the year.
Heavy humanistic, societal and economic burden, no matter which scenario you look at.

"To date, COVID-19 has followed seasonal patterns similar to #pneumonia, and if that correlation holds, northern countries can anticipate more cases in the late fall/winter.
Can any experts weigh in here? @MarionKoopmans @AlexWFriedrich1 @c_drosten @CiesekSandra

Then comes the swift kicks to the nether regions.
Under the most likely scenarios, the nations with the highest per capita total deaths would be the US Virgin Islands, the #Netherlands (#NL, #nederland), and #Spain.
@C19RedTeam @rivm @MinVWS

By @WHO regions, projected death by Jan 1
- 959,685 in #Americas,
- 667,811 in #European region,
- 79,583 in the #African Region,
- 168,711 in the Eastern #Mediterranean region,
- 738,427 in the South-East #Asia region, and,
- 191,598 in the Western #Pacific Region.
Massive.

The authors on #HerdImmunity:
The “worse-case” scenario in these projections reflects a situation where leaders allow transmission to run through their population, resulting in significant loss of life.
#UK #SWEDEN #HerdMentality

The authors on #Containment:
“We all must learn from those leaders of nations where the virus has been contained, or where second waves of infections have occurred, and where swift action has been taken to prevent loss of life.
#Germany #NewZealand #Denmark #SouthKorea

Methods:
Projections based on epidemiological model that includes data on cases, deaths, antibody prevalence, as well as location-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, population density and age structure, and pneumonia seasonality.

Finally,
New projections, including forecasts of daily infections, are available at covid19.healthdata.org
@mzelst @edwinveldhuizen @BDDataplan @pesla
(For Europe-based journalists: Cathy Bartley, [e-mail] )