Thread by @Ex_Trac

1. Concerning signals coming from #IS in #Afghanistan.

After a months-long period of resurgence, its activities have fallen off a cliff—and this is not in response to any known counter-#ISKP operation.

2. In June 2021, #ISKP reported 19 times as many ops as it did in June 2020.

This month, it's reported just 11 attacks and been totally inactive for 11 days—that’s three times less activity compared with last month and the longest period of inactivity since October last year.

3. #ISKP’s recovery in #Afghanistan began in June last year. This follows its being declared ‘defeated’ at the hands of the #ANDSF at the end of 2019 (with help from the #Taliban).

Since then, its ascendancy has been fairly steady, as noted here:

4. That is, until mid-August this year, when #ISKP suddenly went silent.

Its last attack was reported on 14 August—the day before #Kabul fell to the #Taliban.

5. This dynamic could be driven by a range of factors.

It could be that the #Taliban simply has a better handle on #ISKP than the #ANDSF and #US did.

It seems more likely, however, that #ISKP is deliberately laying low.

6. #IS affiliates tend to lay low when they are either:

i) In 'survival mode' (e.g., in #Syria now, see thread below); or
ii) Planning something (e.g., in the run up to attrition campaigns, see graph).

7. Given that just weeks ago #ISKP was an order of magnitude more active than it was the same time last year, it seems unlikely that its silence now can be explained by its having suddenly entered into ‘survival mode.’

8. On that basis, it is critical that all parties in #Afghanistan monitor the situation closely. There are lots of ‘ideal’ targets for #ISKP at risk right now.

We’re monitoring this closely. If you’d like to know more, visit extrac.io or email [e-mail].

9. #IS has claimed responsibility for just *one* suicide operation, yet multiple bombings have been reported from #Kabul.

This is unusual and unprecedented - suggests that other operations could be imminent/underway.