Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ Point du jour - Rapport mi-journée - 26 Juin 2022
#UkraineMap #UkraineRussianWar #CarteUkraine
Situation has not changed Globally but several important moves from Russian near #Lysychansk where they try to keep their momentum in order to surround it
Gen Staff report
Part 1 -

2/ "the enemy's main efforts were focused on advancing in the directions of the settlements #Dovgenke (area) and #Mazanivka ... #Kurulka "

3/ Gen staff report part 2 -
Nothing special there except the classical use of arty as much as they can to try to suppress all ZSU #UAarmy defenses and try to block them from moving more materials or blocking troops (pin down) in certain areas.

4/ Report from #Luhansk governor Сергій Гайдай (Serhiy Gaidai)
more direct infos around #Lysichansk #Lysychansk #UkraineMap #CarteUkraine (Map to be confirmed by the end of the day) - some local reports (as usual) are not confirmed (Nope, i still don't take tiktok vids as true ;)

5/ here a "Firms" rendering of fires in the area (normally i don't post this but pp asked) because you are missing a lot & can introduce a lot of interpretations biases (you see none of the shelling of #BilaGora Bila Hora for example) also size of pixels/importance is "off" etc.

6/ Pertes supposées russes du jour
and Russian report (just for info i do it once a week. it's litteraly lalaland but just informing new comers that i tend to show it once a week)

7/ Recap of the day and week
#UkraineMapAndDatas

8/ Reminder :
#Russian "classic" #BTGs representation (so you can count units down from Week report) also note that BTGs now are more "frankensteined" (mixed with other mechanized or infantry units depending of the area) & no more up to 800/1000 men but average more 500 men.

9/ Russian armored representation if needed.
#RussianMaterial

10/ Now 2 maps
to help you to visualize on this 4th month of war that since Ru moved out from the North they have lost territories not the opposite.
now we r focusing on local gains.. be carefull!
do not "despair" w/ the East local losses. it's really not important/size country.

11/ Also just a quick note to say one more time (as Gaidai perfectly expressed it yesterday) that #Severodonetsk is totally destroyed. & all infrastructures are down. so Russians won't live there it's a gain like a prize of "consolation", it's a progression on a total burn land.

12/ Fra news! (i have no info on this!) a convoy of French VAB armored personnel carriers was spotted in Slovakia yesterday. Judging by their appearance, they were removed from storage and apparently intended for transfer to the Armed Forces of #Ukraine

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16/ President Zelenskyy: No Russian missiles, no strikes can break the morale of Ukrainians #Ukraine

17/ a- it would be a perfect time as some countries already talked about it, to vote (maybe not a no fly zone as it would be still very difficult to do bc engagement against ru jet fighters) an "exclusion" zone (and then put all AA defense available by Nato countries to exclude

18/ b- all incoming missiles from Ru that would go past the 32° longitude East.
it would do several good things as protected also Odessa and also would prevent for effing Belarus to try do anything in a near future in terms of rocket agressions etc.

19/ El Pais: NATO is discussing the largest military deployment since the Cold War.
According to the publication, NATO allies are ready to start an intense arms race. At Madrid, the alliance will adopt a new strategic concept that will “put an end to ties with the Russ Federation

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22/ Long time coming thread (i always do something similar before a general move from Russia in a specific area/progression on a new axis.
What we r clearly witnessing now is Russia desire to push all it's forces in the polygon #Izyum #Sloviansk #Lysichansk #Bakhmut #Kramatorsk

23/ considering the time/ressources/effort/men "spent" on the previous months. this is clearly the only area now putin could envision to gain in the next 3/4 months.
Today i'll only give "my two cents" projections on the #Lysichansk #Lyssytchansk #Лисичанськ area
#UkraineMap

24/ lots of questions for the last week about my thoughts about this, if it would be a good idea or not to stay in #Lysichansk #Лисичанськ . first of, there is not one true answer or i can't give any kind of estimate time as how long this city could resist. (read more below)

25/ Ukraine high command/military chief might want (as i explained to someone this morning) to "use" as much as they can all this area, in regards of what that will "cost" them.
there are studies in psychology that call this a "min/max behavior" as we all do for different reasons

26/ the only true limit as i explained is that you don't want to lose heavy good materials & more good troops than the other is losing. also this "combat retardateur" (Fra) might assume its aim of breaking the russian momentum until Ukr forces r ready for strong counterattack.

27/ As you can see in the specific map i've made, there is no really any difficulties in term of "high" grounds" to overcome for Russians.
read next comments in box below...

28/ Some of you might not have read this, so i'll put it back here. but it explains why it would with some difficulties to use the new systems (like Himars M142 MLRs or Suzanna's type of howitzers ... or very carefully) too close to this area :

29/ Also one of the last point to take in consideration would be the report of the Ru forces in the area and the willingness or not (and the capacity or not -because no CAS not much heavy MBT etc in the area) from the Ukr army to finally do some real manoeuvers "push-pull" there.

30/ that's about it. one more time, not a thread for specialist. here i first answer friends with no military backgrounds and tries to make it simple (not stupid) for anyone to understand the "key points"/scheme to consider. not making prediction here. impossible to say...
END.

31/ I have received more infos like that from different sources in Ukr and from french journalist (Le Monde) in the area of Zaporijia and also 2 ex soldiers in the area of Kyiv and one person in Kharkiv.
so, saddly this is real.

32/ Reports coming in of a large attack by #Ukrainian forces on #snakeisland snake island.
#Russian are "crying" about it on telegram channels and official accounts seems to acknowledge the info.
to be confirmed.
Reminder from @OSINT88

33/ Gen staff -last report of the day -
nothing has really changed (see maps from this morning or days before for special focus maps)
Russians have been blocked in their progress in the south of #Lysichansk and now are coming back to their bread and butter : more artillery...

34/ it seems that the attack of #Ukrainians in Zaporijia/Donetsk axis is still going on. and they resist the push back from Russians. the good thing is that it relieved pressure near Velyka novosylka...
i'll do a better map if it goes on and start to really be meaningful.