Thread by @ChainLogAnalyst

Ehi there #Crypto and #macro Twitter

Time for #market analysis #Number20!

"The CPI news flushout"

I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the #crypto market starting from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macro🧵

First of all, if you want to have a deeper insight in what happened the week before, you should check my last #weekly #analysis

I'll put the link here for you:


But let's start digging into this week, should we?

For as much as I would like to start with the onchain data, this week I'll have to retreat to an TA and macro analysis at first, onchain will have to wait I guess.

There a lot of important information to put out before entring the blockchain realm

So this week we saw something changing in the #crypto market, with #Eth approaching the date of the merge, some investor chose to take profit into #BTC as a precautionary measure or just because the profit were so yummy with #Bitcoin that low

In the meantime the #Bitcoin hashrate keeps climbing reaching a new ATH. Paradoxical to say the least that this is happening meanwhile the other large cryptocurrencies is actually approaching a PoS consensus mechanism

In any case today we have other problems to care about, since as always, during the day of the CPI print we had a flush out because the market was not expecting that lower CPI I guess and what the market haven't priced in is going to turn against it

As you see above infact, #bitcoin dropped 8.42%, at the time of writing, in a day, with not so much of a liquidation cascade watching the data.

This means that the spot price drove the run to the downside

By this chart this seems like apossible retest of the 12 EMA at support, but the day is long enought that something could change

Maybe this flushout will lead to another pump thanks to ETH and the merge and the fact that..

Today's CPI prints:

Actual
8.3%
Forecast
8.1%
Previous
8.5%

have let to a drastic change in what the market is actually expecting the FED to react to this inflation level, forecasting a 75bps rate hike at 82% of probability and a whopping 100bps at 18%

On sunday, when I was sharing my view of the market on the live stream linked below (timestamps for argument, since is very long and full of alpha)


The very same tool was all the other way around

Another fact is that the CPI MoM, that we actually use as a momentum indicator for the CPI during the year doesn't seem to retreat, that meaning tha inflation since last month has not decreased in this kind of enviroment

Actual
0.1%
Forecast
-0.1%
Previous
0.0%

With the strong labour market narrative still intact, is likely that the FED will keep up raising interest rates until the YoY will finally come down to a decent level, and thenm, they'll probably just stall for a while, waiting the right opportunity to scale back

75bps incoming

From onchain I have a pair of charts to share with you today

First the MVRV Crosses

TLDR profitabily of Long Term Holders (blue) and Short Term Holders (red)

When the two met and blue goes under red, bottom in place, last part of the bear market

Not seen so far even if close

This is the Short Term Holder Realized Price

TLDR cost basis of <5m holders

as you see in the case of a bear market rally one of the major milestone and resistance is this

the last time we touched it we cam down all over to the current bottom

Now it sits at 24.3k

The same was true for the humpbacks (10k+ BTC holders) realized price

But the thing here to watch for in the case of another dump is the fish realized price. that as you see in the 2nd chart, did well in putting in every single bottom of a bear market, now sitting at 12.5k

I'm not saying that we'll go there. There should be something really catastrophic to do so, I'm only saying that historically, that is the place where the bottom was found.

Now, all we are waiting for this week is the merge, let's see what it'll bring

My thesis about the bottom area still holds tho, since the 14th of June, 20k to 14k, the huge area where we can find strong support and demand from any cohort or investor

I talked about that and why I was so sure about it in the correlated video on my youtube channel here if you want to know more

Do care so, about the merge, and the interest rates. All these events could bring lot of volatility in the markets.

Prepare yourself for a good amount of time spent in the bear market because, if nothing breaks in the economy the FED will not pivot any time soon

This is it for today.

I hope you guys and girls enjoyed it

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All links you need
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Youtube channel is adviced (lot of alpha every 2 or 3 weeks)

I make a daily video for the short term price action of #btc and #crypto for the ChainLog Markets School
chainlog.info

So if you know someone who need help to understand the markets, and he's a newbie, or a trader that wants to have a second opinion on the market 👇

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Cheers!

(Any views expressed in the above are the personal views of the authors and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

And they'll never be 🤓