Ehi there #Crypto and #macro Twitter

Time for #market analysis #Number20!

"The CPI news flushout"

I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the #crypto market starting from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macro🧵
First of all, if you want to have a deeper insight in what happened the week before, you should check my last #weekly #analysis

I'll put the link here for you:


But let's start digging into this week, should we?
For as much as I would like to start with the onchain data, this week I'll have to retreat to an TA and macro analysis at first, onchain will have to wait I guess.

There a lot of important information to put out before entring the blockchain realm
So this week we saw something changing in the #crypto market, with #Eth approaching the date of the merge, some investor chose to take profit into #BTC as a precautionary measure or just because the profit were so yummy with #Bitcoin that low Image
In the meantime the #Bitcoin hashrate keeps climbing reaching a new ATH. Paradoxical to say the least that this is happening meanwhile the other large cryptocurrencies is actually approaching a PoS consensus mechanism Image
In any case today we have other problems to care about, since as always, during the day of the CPI print we had a flush out because the market was not expecting that lower CPI I guess and what the market haven't priced in is going to turn against it Image
As you see above infact, #bitcoin dropped 8.42%, at the time of writing, in a day, with not so much of a liquidation cascade watching the data.

This means that the spot price drove the run to the downside Image
By this chart this seems like apossible retest of the 12 EMA at support, but the day is long enought that something could change

Maybe this flushout will lead to another pump thanks to ETH and the merge and the fact that.. Image
Today's CPI prints:

Actual
8.3%
Forecast
8.1%
Previous
8.5%

have let to a drastic change in what the market is actually expecting the FED to react to this inflation level, forecasting a 75bps rate hike at 82% of probability and a whopping 100bps at 18% Image
On sunday, when I was sharing my view of the market on the live stream linked below (timestamps for argument, since is very long and full of alpha)


The very same tool was all the other way around Image
Another fact is that the CPI MoM, that we actually use as a momentum indicator for the CPI during the year doesn't seem to retreat, that meaning tha inflation since last month has not decreased in this kind of enviroment

Actual
0.1%
Forecast
-0.1%
Previous
0.0% Image
With the strong labour market narrative still intact, is likely that the FED will keep up raising interest rates until the YoY will finally come down to a decent level, and thenm, they'll probably just stall for a while, waiting the right opportunity to scale back

75bps incoming
From onchain I have a pair of charts to share with you today

First the MVRV Crosses

TLDR profitabily of Long Term Holders (blue) and Short Term Holders (red)

When the two met and blue goes under red, bottom in place, last part of the bear market

Not seen so far even if close Image
This is the Short Term Holder Realized Price

TLDR cost basis of <5m holders

as you see in the case of a bear market rally one of the major milestone and resistance is this

the last time we touched it we cam down all over to the current bottom

Now it sits at 24.3k Image
The same was true for the humpbacks (10k+ BTC holders) realized price

But the thing here to watch for in the case of another dump is the fish realized price. that as you see in the 2nd chart, did well in putting in every single bottom of a bear market, now sitting at 12.5k ImageImage
I'm not saying that we'll go there. There should be something really catastrophic to do so, I'm only saying that historically, that is the place where the bottom was found.

Now, all we are waiting for this week is the merge, let's see what it'll bring
My thesis about the bottom area still holds tho, since the 14th of June, 20k to 14k, the huge area where we can find strong support and demand from any cohort or investor Image
I talked about that and why I was so sure about it in the correlated video on my youtube channel here if you want to know more

Do care so, about the merge, and the interest rates. All these events could bring lot of volatility in the markets.

Prepare yourself for a good amount of time spent in the bear market because, if nothing breaks in the economy the FED will not pivot any time soon
This is it for today.

I hope you guys and girls enjoyed it

Please consider Retweeting and like

You can follow me also on many other platforms

All links you need
linktr.ee/chainlog

Youtube channel is adviced (lot of alpha every 2 or 3 weeks)
I make a daily video for the short term price action of #btc and #crypto for the ChainLog Markets School
chainlog.info

So if you know someone who need help to understand the markets, and he's a newbie, or a trader that wants to have a second opinion on the market 👇
If you liked the analysis share it to other people smashing a like, retweet and follow me here or on any other paltform, so I'll know you liked it

All the links you'll ever need from ChainLog
linktr.ee/chainlog

Cheers!
(Any views expressed in the above are the personal views of the authors and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

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More from @ChainLogAnalyst

Aug 5, 2022
Surprisingly positive numbers on employment in America have been published.

The July unemployment rate drops to 3.5%, the lowest level since the beginning of 2020.

Non-farm payrolls (number of non-farm workers) are 528,000, more than double the expected value (250k).
Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 3, 2022
If you think that #solana #hack is weird you are probably new to #crypto

DeFi is young and has its problems, but some blockchain doesn't handle the concepts of web3 neither the function of a protocol.

Solana is one of them. A thread 🧵
We saw ourself that in the middle of a crysis Solana can manage to shut down the entire chain in a matter of seconds from a centralized "emergency button".

So as far as decentralization goes, we are not gone far, even with 2k validators.
Multiple shut down of the chain in the last months showed that the chain isn't ready to handle the transactions happening on chain + any other problem coming from a code perspective.
Read 12 tweets
Jul 28, 2022
#Crypto friends

Did you know that there are pairs that should be valued more?

To witness the power of the crypto industry and the money making trading strategies we should first know that using #Bitcoin as the medium of exchange to buy other coins or tokens is the best

Why? 👇
Take into account for a second future expectations and price targets.

Most people in the crypto industry think a 1m #Bitcoin is possible.

So let's take that as it is.

In this case, a 10% made on a #BTC pair is actually worth 50x more (taking a 20k btc or 40x with a 25k one)
Plus, using #Bitcoin as medium of exchange helps us to get an hedge in FIAT debasement.

Doesn't really matter in the short term if the price go down 70% from ATH.

We got many Xs everytime the market rallied again.

Inflation is a costant k in an equation where BTC is the result
Read 5 tweets
Jul 26, 2022
Ehi there #Crypto and #macro Twitter

Time for #market analysis #Number12!

"Quiet, before the storm"

I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the broader #economy as it breaks

I will start from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macro🧵
First of all, if you want to have a deeper insight in what happened the week before, you should check my last #weekly #analysis

I'll put the link here for you:


But let's start digging into this week, should we?
Last week we experienced a rally in #crypto with #Eth leading the way with a speculative date on the merge happening on September 19th.

BTC managed to rally breaking the trendline at resistance and the realized price, but failed to maintain those as support ImageImageImage
Read 23 tweets
Jul 25, 2022
Tomorrow a new market analysis will be out, followed by updates on the new macro data. This week will be huge.

meanwhile today I'm watching at something no one is looking at.

#Whales are accumulating they say.

A short thread 🧵

#onchain #BTC #Bitcoin Image
So let's take in consideration for a minute the fact that we can divide the cohort and call them as we want.

@glassnode divide the 2 cohorts we are gonna talk about today like this:

#Whale (1,000-5,000 BTC)
#Humpback (>5,000 BTC)
Meanwhile here we are looking at:
#Whale (1,000-10,000 BTC)
#Humpback (>10,000 BTC). ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Jul 21, 2022
#Tesla's #Bitcoin were sold OTC, were sold because they need their money back to hedge against their fear of recession and to appeal to investors in this period.

Do not be confused, that is strategy from a company. A bad one probably.

They invested what they couldn't afford to
lose, buying high and selling low.

They have their terms, obviously they have to mantain positive cash flow, and errors on the accounting and investing side are made more by centralized companies these days than "decentralized" ones.
When investing you shouldn't consider what other people are doing, but only what you should do based on your asset allocation, risk adjustment and investment strategies.

This is not a financial advice obviously

Anyway I don't think those #Bitcoin made any difference
Read 4 tweets

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