1. In his latest statement, #IS spokesman Abu ‘Umar al-Muhajir spoke at length about #IS’s targeting of Christian communities in #Africa.
This continent-wide campaign is likely to intensify across #Mozambique, #DRC, and #Nigeria in the next few months, peaking in December.
2. As part of this, Muhajir spoke about recent developments in #Mozambique.
September has seen #IS’s cells penetrating further south there than ever before, razing "Christian villages" to the ground as they go.
L: #IS-related violence in 2021
R: #IS-related violence in 2022
3. At the beginning of this month, about 20 #IS fighters from #CaboDelgado crossed the #Lurio river and entered #Nampula province.
Up until that point, #Nampula state had seen just one attack claimed by #IS. As of today, that number is at eight and counting.
4. #IS’s southwards shift - even though it’s only being driven by a few dozen fighters - has caused 1,000s to flee and left dozens dead.
However, even though more attacks are being claimed than this time in 2021, this is actually a sign that things aren't going well for #IS.
5. After all, these attacks come on the back of significant and sustained territorial and material losses faced by #IS’s network in #Mozambique — losses that resulted from #SAMIM’s regional intervention.
They are a symptom of material weakness, not a mark of strength.
6. We first observed this change of trajectory back in June.
It’s a dynamic that has only become more pronounced in the months since and that will likely worsen in months to come.
7. We’ll continue to monitor these dynamics closely in the coming weeks.
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