1. In his latest statement, #IS spokesman Abu ‘Umar al-Muhajir spoke at length about #IS’s targeting of Christian communities in #Africa.
This continent-wide campaign is likely to intensify across #Mozambique, #DRC, and #Nigeria in the next few months, peaking in December.
This continent-wide campaign is likely to intensify across #Mozambique, #DRC, and #Nigeria in the next few months, peaking in December.
2. As part of this, Muhajir spoke about recent developments in #Mozambique.
September has seen #IS’s cells penetrating further south there than ever before, razing "Christian villages" to the ground as they go.
L: #IS-related violence in 2021
R: #IS-related violence in 2022
September has seen #IS’s cells penetrating further south there than ever before, razing "Christian villages" to the ground as they go.
L: #IS-related violence in 2021
R: #IS-related violence in 2022
3. At the beginning of this month, about 20 #IS fighters from #CaboDelgado crossed the #Lurio river and entered #Nampula province.
Up until that point, #Nampula state had seen just one attack claimed by #IS. As of today, that number is at eight and counting.
Up until that point, #Nampula state had seen just one attack claimed by #IS. As of today, that number is at eight and counting.
4. #IS’s southwards shift - even though it’s only being driven by a few dozen fighters - has caused 1,000s to flee and left dozens dead.
However, even though more attacks are being claimed than this time in 2021, this is actually a sign that things aren't going well for #IS.
However, even though more attacks are being claimed than this time in 2021, this is actually a sign that things aren't going well for #IS.
5. After all, these attacks come on the back of significant and sustained territorial and material losses faced by #IS’s network in #Mozambique — losses that resulted from #SAMIM’s regional intervention.
They are a symptom of material weakness, not a mark of strength.
They are a symptom of material weakness, not a mark of strength.
6. We first observed this change of trajectory back in June.
It’s a dynamic that has only become more pronounced in the months since and that will likely worsen in months to come.
It’s a dynamic that has only become more pronounced in the months since and that will likely worsen in months to come.
https://twitter.com/Ex_Trac/status/1537502823688327168
7. We’ll continue to monitor these dynamics closely in the coming weeks.
Visit extrac.io for more information.
Visit extrac.io for more information.
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