Ooh, counterfactual time. Sure, let's do this.
Two clear paths here, obviously -- Reagan gets the nomination and loses to Carter, or Reagan gets the nomination and wins.
I suppose a loss is more likely, given the Watergate backlash against the GOP.
If Reagan had run and lost in '76, the party would look back on the previous five races, sees two conservatives tanking but Nixon winning twice as a relative moderate and nearly winning in '60 too.
If Reagan had run and lost in '76, the party would look back on the previous five races, sees two conservatives tanking but Nixon winning twice as a relative moderate and nearly winning in '60 too.
Assume Carter's presidency plays out like it did, and there's a decent chance a moderate GOP nominee -- likely George HW Bush, or maybe George Romney? -- wins in 1980 and sets a much different course for the party.
No love for tax cuts ("voodoo economics"), more detente, etc.
No love for tax cuts ("voodoo economics"), more detente, etc.
But if Reagan pulled off an upset win in 1976, I think his term would have followed a lot of the same path as Carter.
Huge Democratic majorities in both houses, this time gunning for an opposition president. Stagflation, more energy crisis, Iran hostages all on his watch, etc.
Huge Democratic majorities in both houses, this time gunning for an opposition president. Stagflation, more energy crisis, Iran hostages all on his watch, etc.
The 1980 election winds up being Ted Kennedy challenging an embattled Reagan and likely winning.
Probably two terms for him, coming after 12 years of GOP rule that saw Nixon resign, Ford and Reagan both flop. In 1988, GOP turns to GHWBush or maybe Bob Dole?
Probably two terms for him, coming after 12 years of GOP rule that saw Nixon resign, Ford and Reagan both flop. In 1988, GOP turns to GHWBush or maybe Bob Dole?
The key question is what happens to social conservatives during all this.
Evangelicals who came into politics to back born-again Carter in 1976 are probably alienated by Ted Kennedy and turn to the GOP, but not sure how that plays out with moderates in ascendancy there.
Evangelicals who came into politics to back born-again Carter in 1976 are probably alienated by Ted Kennedy and turn to the GOP, but not sure how that plays out with moderates in ascendancy there.
You'd imagine the GOP would run a moderate against Kennedy in 1984, probably one of the ones listed above.
That could lead to a pivot to the Religious Right down the line, I guess, especially if Kennedy reshaped SCOTUS to the left as Reagan did to the right?
That could lead to a pivot to the Religious Right down the line, I guess, especially if Kennedy reshaped SCOTUS to the left as Reagan did to the right?
They'd be a force in the party, but I still think you'd see a stronger strand of old school moderate Republicans dominating there, maybe tracking left like the Democrats did when they tracked right with the DLC.
Instead of Bill Clinton in 1992, someone like Jack Kemp wins?
Instead of Bill Clinton in 1992, someone like Jack Kemp wins?
Hard to say in the end.
But win or lose, Reagan winning the nomination in 1976 seems like it'd have undercut movement conservatism considerably. He was lucky to miss his chance then and come out in 1980 instead.
But win or lose, Reagan winning the nomination in 1976 seems like it'd have undercut movement conservatism considerably. He was lucky to miss his chance then and come out in 1980 instead.
