Okay, a few thoughts on BRICS.
Brazil (GDP - $2.139 trillion)
Russia (GDP - $1.719 trillion)
India (GDP - $2.848 trillion)
China (GDP - $14.092 trillion)
South Africa (GDP - $326.5 billion)
This is a group of heavy hitters, and South Africa is the clear outlier here.
Brazil (GDP - $2.139 trillion)
Russia (GDP - $1.719 trillion)
India (GDP - $2.848 trillion)
China (GDP - $14.092 trillion)
South Africa (GDP - $326.5 billion)
This is a group of heavy hitters, and South Africa is the clear outlier here.
South Africa gets "a seat at the table" and an opportunity to be treated as an equal in this group. Nigeria should also pitch for a seat at this table, I will explain why - it has everything to do with the geopolitics of the 21st Century. Economics is important, but secondary.
China and India have huge populations, so they need to import a lot of food. When Trump came to power, China discovered that USA is no longer a reliable trading partner - so they will have to depend more on Brazil for soybeans & Russia for wheat & corn.
Two members (China & India) are massive food importers, the other two (Russia & Brazil) are massive food exporters.
Now Brazil has been traditionally ignored by by US, and doesn't have a say in major multilateral institutions. BRICS provides an opportunity to amplify its voice.
Now Brazil has been traditionally ignored by by US, and doesn't have a say in major multilateral institutions. BRICS provides an opportunity to amplify its voice.
When Xi and the Brazilian president meet in South Africa, the major topic of discussion will be food (soybeans). China is ready to invest billions to ensure it never has to depend on US for food supplies in future - it wants options, & Brazil is the most important nation for that
Coming close second is Russia. Russia is now a major wheat producer, and is also the most powerful nation in the Black Sea region, a major wheat producing region - expect China to engage Putin on that too.
In 10 years, India will require a similar volume of food imports.
In 10 years, India will require a similar volume of food imports.
If you monitor African trade statistics, China and India are on track to be Africa's biggest trading partners - and South Africa is important here, not for its size, but because it is a "gateway to Africa".
This is where Nigeria should come in, we can also play that role.
This is where Nigeria should come in, we can also play that role.
Nobody wants to depend on the US for commodities, nations want options - and if any nations have the capacity to engage Africa productively on agriculture, China and India are top candidates.
Their primary concern is feeding their people, not subsidizing their farmers.
Their primary concern is feeding their people, not subsidizing their farmers.
BRICS is not a group of rich Western nations with similar interests, it is a group of diverse nations across four continents with diverse interests, but as I have demonstrated, these interests intersect in interesting ways.
Now about MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey), nobody really has clout in that group. Erdogan might have delusions of grandeur, but Turkey doesn't really have a global foot print (the potential for one) like Russia, China or India.
There's no point joining MINT.
There's no point joining MINT.
The BRICS group can (and should) be expanded to include other emerging market economies like Indonesia and Mexico. In an age of increasing isolation in the US, nations should seek opportunities to collaborate across continents.
