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Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
There is a reason why economic and political crises tend to escalate when everyone gets back to the office in early September
With the Greece crisis there were signs of trouble by early 2009 yet many were still overwhelmed when it escalated.
With Ukraine it was clear tensions were building by June 2013 but many were still shocked by escalation in November 2013 and January 2014
If Theresa May really has lost control of her party then there is a high likelihood that the starting gun for the escalation of the Brexit crisis will be the Conservative Party Conference in late September and early October 2018
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A contention I find odd about Relotius is this idea that his lies were brilliantly concealed. His pieces fed conventional stereotypes about other societies among Spiegel's readership in a flippantly emotive style that can at best be accessible and at worst condescending
Relotius didn't get away with it because he was some kind of literary genius. He got away with it because his pieces so seamlessly copied the conventional tropes of post-1990 German journalism that no one could tell the difference between his work and genuinely researched stories
I've been reading Spiegel since I was a kid. Every tmonths there is a story about "those crazy small time Americans", "the rebellious French", "inscrutable Turks", "chaotic Italians", "eccentric Brits", "moody Russians", "wild Arabs", "ungovernable Ukrainians" and so on
Read 8 tweets
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Extraordinary how hard the UK government is fighting to lose whatever leverage it has left over the EU. A deal to protect Northern Ireland from English politics is essential even with a second referendum. But lack of realism over the UK's position after March 2019 is remarkable
Many have the psychology of the UK government during Brexit transition wrong. Tories in particular have strong incentives to pretend that achieving Brexit in itself has been a huge success. May and Gove will avoid any great rows over EU decisions that only underline UK weakness
Any complaints among UK MPs or voters about EU regulatory action that shape UK economic and political life in Brexit transition will be deflected by government claims of all the fantastic goodies waiting for the UK just over the rainbow of a final trade deal with the EU
Read 6 tweets
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Do those who want a referendum before March 2019 rather than during the transition believe security threats without a backstop are manageable and risks from political escalation are controllable? Do they think they can hold the UK union together when all else falls apart?
Because once a state slides into existential crisis even the best intentioned leaders often end up facing disastrous choices
Many on both sides of the UK Brexit debate need to take a harder look at what happens to states in moments of existential crisis.

If you propose a course of action with very high levels of risk at least acknowledge the existence of those risks and factor them into your strategy
Read 4 tweets

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Okay.
Here is a thread about why #Kavanaugh most likely doesn’t remember what happened with Dr. Ford, and why the #MeToo movement will make sure this never happens again.
It’s 1985 and a friend of mine has just secured a job as a receptionist/bookkeeper position at a small family owned law firm. The father is the head of the firm. He has two sons who work for him.
She’s just out of college and thrilled to have her first job. She doesn’t ask why the receptionist/bookkeeper before her left. She knows it’s a starting position and just assumes the previous person moved on.
Read 35 tweets
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Pedro then became Emperor Dom Pedro II.
Upon leaving the country, Emperor Pedro I selected three people to take charge of his son and daughters.

The first was José Bonifácio de Andrada, his friend and an influential leader during Brazilian independence, who was named his guardian.
The second was Mariana de Verna, who had held the post of aia (governess) since the birth of Pedro II. As a child, the then-Prince Imperial called her "Dadama", as he could not pronounce the word dama (Lady) correctly.
Read 95 tweets
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Thread:

I had a black hair moment, at work, today that was embarrassing and enlightening. Sooooo y’all know I have box braids in right? Know what happens to box braids when you don’t take care of them? They start hanging on for DEAR LIFE.
So I’m in professional development and I’m trying to make a critical decision. Do I pull the braid out of my head right in this moment? Do I step out and do it? & then I realize that if I yank it...the way it’s hanging...my real hair is going with it.
NAH. It’s over for that. It’s taken too long for me to grow my afro. So I look in the middle of the table and I notice, in the supply bucket, there’s a kiddie scissors. BOOM. If I cut the braid in half, I can unbraid it slowly and salvage the natural hair in that spot.
Read 19 tweets
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1/ Thread on variance.
PoW mining is critical to Bitcoin network security. Mining, in turn, is subject to 3 major sources of variance, from (roughly) easiest to tame to hardest:

i/ Finding blocks via SHA256 hashing
ii/ Market demand (for BTC & transactions)
iii/ Tech innovation
2/ Quick note: contrary to popular belief that miners are bad & evil, they are vital to Bitcoin’s survival. So it’s imperative to foster a healthy mining industry.
3/ The best miners would be the ones who understand the nature of these variances & know how to handle them most effectively.
Read 20 tweets
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Startups are exponential. There's an enormous mountain to climb from founding to success.

In the spirit of the famous "Powers of Ten" film by the Eames Office, here's an exponential look at startups. Each step is a 10x increase beyond the previous one.

Startups by the numbers:
1

The number of chances you get to choose your founders.

Select right and you have a chance to make it big. Choose wrong, and no matter how great your idea or technology or product is, you will eventually fail.
10

The number of employees you'll have before you don't fit into someone's apartment anymore.

Someone will be constantly filling up the coffee machine's water reservoir, and you'll have the first instance of someone leaving something bad in the bathroom that no one owns up to.
Read 14 tweets
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#Lebanon: The final analysis of the #LebaneseElection2018 shows (a.) the electoral triumph of Hezbollah,Amal&allies (b.) division of Sunnis, with weakness of PM Hariri, & (c) a lesser division of the Christians. (1)
The Sunni vote was distributed among PM Hariri, Miqati, Karami & few others. Hariri, being not objectionable by Hezbollah, can still get another term. But this will depend on orientation of his program’s regional relations. (2)
President Aoun will be challenged by the new gains of the Lebanese Forces, but not a challenge strong enough to undermine his current position. (3)
Read 12 tweets

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