Extraordinary how hard the UK government is fighting to lose whatever leverage it has left over the EU. A deal to protect Northern Ireland from English politics is essential even with a second referendum. But lack of realism over the UK's position after March 2019 is remarkable
Many have the psychology of the UK government during Brexit transition wrong. Tories in particular have strong incentives to pretend that achieving Brexit in itself has been a huge success. May and Gove will avoid any great rows over EU decisions that only underline UK weakness
Any complaints among UK MPs or voters about EU regulatory action that shape UK economic and political life in Brexit transition will be deflected by government claims of all the fantastic goodies waiting for the UK just over the rainbow of a final trade deal with the EU
Rather than constantly complaining about EU action, UK governments during the first and second transitions will pretend that the Brits have already seized control even when in reality overwhelming EU leverage means the UK will have to concede in everything from FoM to fish.
The UK's Brexit future in a world shape by the May Deal already is drifting into view, and at the moment it looks rather Swiss.
Many colleagues including me have discussed how the inability of some UK elites to accept limits of UK power has driven key UK blunders of the Brexit crisis.
Yet final loss of UK leverage during May's Brexit transitions will force de facto acceptance of geopolitical reality.
Yet final loss of UK leverage during May's Brexit transitions will force de facto acceptance of geopolitical reality.
