One thing we’ve learned about NAFTA talks is that supposed deadlines are almost never real deadlines. And that is also true of the next supposed deadline for Canada to sign on, which is end of September.
The congressional notification Trump submitted yesterday starts a 90-day countdown to the possible formal signing of an agreement by the countries’ leaders. But nothing in it means a deal couldn’t be signed well after 90 days - 90 days is just the minimum amount of time.
The U.S. wants the final deal signed before Lopez Obrador is inaugurated on Dec 1. For that to happen, under U.S. trade law, the full text of the agreement has to be released by Oct 1. Meaning Canada would have to be on board by then.
Buttttt: there’s no actual formal reason the U.S. couldn’t just keep negotiating indefinitely and have Lopez Obrador sign the deal whenever. He’s a left-wing populist former NAFTA critic, but he’s softened in the last year and he’s praised the U.S.-Mexico preliminary deal.
In conclusion: If Congress says “sorry, we hate your Mexico-only deal” or “sorry, your Mexico-only deal doesn’t satisfy trade law,” or the Trump admin just really wants Canada in the deal, they can negotiate as long as they want.
