tony nog Profile picture
Sep 23, 2018 26 tweets 8 min read
1) Thread: "We knew what we were voting for" & #Brexit
This shouldn't really need saying but no, we didn't, we couldn't, because of the dishonest campaign ran by the Vote Leavers
History has been rewritten but the following are some edited highlights
#Lab18 #LabourConference2018
2) Firstly, what did Vote Leave promise?

Well Gove said there'd just be a few "Bumps in the Road" in a pre ref debate
strongerin.co.uk/bumps_in_the_r…
3) Leadsom stated that in her expert opinion as a former city worker that there'd be no impact on the British economy
buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/an…
4) Chris Grayling echoed the "they need us more than we need them" line along with other leading brexiters who talked obsessively about our huge trade deficit *(remember that? German car makers were going to force Merkel and EU into a deal) being our ace in the hole
5) Dan Hannan was actively campaigning for EFTA/EAA/"Norway" before the ref and then kept suggesting it afterwards as a "compromise".
The site has been taken down now but here is an image from the video where he defends the 4 freedoms
6) Even Farage was suggesting Norway as a way forward
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
7) But we knew what Vote Leave were offering. Unfortunately, they didn't seem to understand exactly what it meant

Here, David Davis, former EU minister and future Brexit secretary, suggested in June 2016 something *completely illegal* in the EU, bi-lateral trade deals
8) There's numerous quotes, TV clips etc of Vote Leave saying it would be easy, free, painless and lucrative to leave the EU. Nothing even approaching the current shambles was hinted at and all talk of our relatively weak hand was dismissed as "talking the country down"
9) at this point hard-line leavers will say "yes, but we ignored all that", "we knew there'd be pain", "what remainers don't get is that it's about more than economics"

It stretches belief that Leave voters ignored the false optimism of Vote Leave and voted for Leave anyway...
10) But more importantly, the idea that Leave Voters had a realistic view of the consequences of Brexit is just not borne out by the facts. Numerous polls indicated a very fragmented view of Brexit in Leave voters
11) This poll of 52K was taken by the telegraph just after the referendum
The leave vote is split into 3 incompatible sections.
just 21% wanted a hard Brexit (and what % knew what that really meant)
9% Norway
But the most interesting is the 18% who believed "we can have it all"
12) Consider that: 18% of the overall poll, so perhaps 40% of Leave voters if this (Telegraph readers) poll is representative believed just after the ref that we really could have everything we wanted

This seems bonkers now but a large number of Leave voters believed this then
13) but then why shouldn't 40% of Leave Voters believe we could have everything we wanted. We were told we held all the cards, had the upper hand, were the worlds 5th biggest economy and would land in the sunlit uplands
14) of course it's embarrassing now to admit you were fooled so its far easier to say "I always knew what Leave meant" but again, the figures just don't stack up.

This poll from about a year after the ref asked the public to rate their priorities on Brexit
15) Almost equal priority was given to ending Freedom of Movement, stopping budget payments and have full access to the Single Market.
The first 2 are incompatible with the 3rd yet large numbers of people thought we could have all 3 post brexit
16) We then come to immigration - and yes this was a priority for a lot of people. They rated it very highly and this has been used as an argument on all sides to end FoM. However, although people wanted to end FoM, they didn't want to personally pay for it
17) Control of Immigration was very popular amongst Leavers, however as soon as any personal cash impact comes into it, support fell off a cliff

We were told we could end FoM and still keep all the benefits of the Single Market, hence no impact - a lot of Leavers believed it
18) To sum up, many Leavers will say now they always knew Brexit meant economic pain. It's likely many of them believe it. But the figures and facts from the ref do not support this in any way.
We were promised all the benefits of the EU with none of the costs
19) the biggest material impact would be the "savings" of £350 M for the NHS
In/out of the SM? This wasn't the question because the answer was we'd get to choose the benefits of the SM that we wanted, but with no subs to pay & less foriners, And large numbers believed it
20) You could ask why they believed this impossible deal was possible but they did, because they were told by Vote Leave Leaders that it would happen. The EU would cave, and compromise, because of french cheese sales and German car makers
21) Unfortunately, it will be only human to move from "we hold all the cards" to "the EU are bullying us" completely bypassing the question "hang on, you swore to us Vote Leave that we held all the cards, this is *your* fault" because that means admitting you were fooled
22) But we should remember history properly.
Many Leave Voters believed Brexit would be free & fruitful
They believed this because fundamentally Vote Leave believed the EU was weak, and craven, and would cave to bullying from the UK (ironic really)
23) it's hard to admit you were fooled, but sufficient leavers must do, because they didn't vote for this, yet the #Brexit shambles is being executed in their name.

And honestly, it'll be a big weight off when you can look at Brexit and its shabby leaders in a proper light
end/
Ps) if you want a refresher here's some blogs from the distant shores of 2016

musealoudblog.wordpress.com/2017/06/01/the…
Finally, my personal theory-Vote Leave were actually aiming for Norway model (or to lose) but actually overshot by overplaying immigration
musealoudblog.wordpress.com/2016/08/23/han…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with tony nog

tony nog Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @tony_nog

Jun 9, 2020
1) interesting article on Cummings which gives some important insight on his elite privilege based career

Suggests the Durham trip was no more or less than a panic induced escape because everything seemed to be collapsing after herd immunity

consortiumnews.com/2020/06/08/let…
2) highlights something however that I cannot believe our media has not picked up on
Cummings was never tested for COVID
Neither was his wife
Their son tested negative

There is no evidence that anyone in the family *ever* had COVID

consortiumnews.com/2020/06/08/let…
3) this of course is a burning question. The 2nd most powerful man in the country is so convinced that his family is COVID stricken that he breaks lockdown and drives 260 miles
Then returns to the heart of government
And yet *never* gets tested?
Really?
consortiumnews.com/2020/06/08/let…
Read 4 tweets
May 29, 2020
1) Cummings, really, why the genius tag?
Not of the greatest importance but keep wondering why Cummings is seen as this great genius, I mean really, what has he actually achieved that is meaningful & sustainable?

Let's examine the evidence
2) Covid19 - bypassing for a moment the current row over his personal behaviour (though as a side note it's now been revealed just how hypocritical his man of the people anti elitist persona really is)

Arguably the "stay at home" messaging was very effective..
3) but everything else about the Covid19 government response, which we must assume he coordinated, has been an unmitigated disaster

Herd immunity, late lockdown, PPE, care homes. Everything. 2nd highest death rate with the most warning of any European nation, and we're an island
Read 21 tweets
May 27, 2020
1) The Boss has lost it
So you're a Tory MP, probably a new one, and you've heard the boss is a rockstar and his right hand man is a political genius. You think you are well set for a long time in power.

You've heard about #Brexit and GE landslides being attributed to this pair
2) You see the boss's popularity get even higher and you think "these 2 are amazing, Labour can't touch us".

Then #Covid19 appears, but the boss says everything's going to be OK.

Then you see the UK move to the wrong ends of the "worst in the world/best in the world graphs"
3) Then you finally see the great performer in PMQs, you've been looking forward to this....

...but he's actually a bit rubbish. Blustering, falling over his words, light on detail. You start to worry
Read 13 tweets
May 24, 2020
1) easiest crystal ball in history
There seems to be a lot of shocked & surprised Tories around today & whilst it was shocking, why is anyone surprised?

What did think would happen when you elevate a lying chancer to PM? What part of his history is inconsistent with today?
2) there's a simple point to make here.Tories, mostly brexiters, knew Johnson's (lack of) character, flaky buffoonery and self serving nature.They knew of the dishonesty of the Brexit campaign but also the utter lack of a moral compass

But they wanted #brexit, so held their nose
3) lots of us were concerned about Brexit but a lot of us looked on in horror at the manipulation of people's fears, the brazen populism, the attacks on parliament & our institutions. The latent fascism as immigrants were othered, intellectuals attacked, the "will of the people"
Read 10 tweets
Feb 1, 2020
1) Amongst many other failures and outright lies from Corbyn's Labour on #Brexit this, the lie of a "Jobs first, protect workers rights Brexit" is right up there

Corbyn and Labour conspired to throw away worker & regulations protections, the greatest rights loss in history
2) There was *never* a jobs first #Brexit but more importantly a "protect workers rights" #Brexit was a complete & deliberate lie

Yesterday we enjoyed pan european workers rights on maternity, working time directive, sick pay, a whole host - that's all under threat
3) Corbyn proposed a "protect workers rights" #Brexit but what did that mean? We would by law enforce the same rights for our workers as they did in the EU, how? By what mechanism would they be enforced? By treaty?

And we would have no say over these rights outside of the EU
Read 11 tweets
Dec 13, 2019
1) @UKLabour - what happened?
Fundamentally 4 blindingly big errors were made by Labour, and at least 3 of them were obvious years ago

Firstly, Labour could only ever, strategically, be a Remain party - they could never out #Brexit the Tories - but they never found a route
@UKLabour 2) whatever the northern seat position was, you cannot win as Labour with Brexit lite, just as Labour couldn't win 10 years ago with austerity lite

The Brexit camp was full, strategically the only route for Labour was full throated Remain - they never got there
@UKLabour 3) if Labour had found the way to full Remain they could have joined the voices saying all #Brexit versions were bad, there were no good Brexits. They could have spent 3 years saying Brexit was a right wing project

But they couldn't,because they pretended *their* Brexit was good
Read 13 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(