Thread by @tony_nog

1) Cummings, really, why the genius tag?
Not of the greatest importance but keep wondering why Cummings is seen as this great genius, I mean really, what has he actually achieved that is meaningful & sustainable?

Let's examine the evidence

2) Covid19 - bypassing for a moment the current row over his personal behaviour (though as a side note it's now been revealed just how hypocritical his man of the people anti elitist persona really is)

Arguably the "stay at home" messaging was very effective..

3) but everything else about the Covid19 government response, which we must assume he coordinated, has been an unmitigated disaster

Herd immunity, late lockdown, PPE, care homes. Everything. 2nd highest death rate with the most warning of any European nation, and we're an island

4) because as it turns out you can't spin #COVID19. Focus groups and misleading briefings don't actually reduce infection rates

He's supposed to be "the big data guy" - but all the data was there

5) in fact the story of Cummings could be seen as that classic one of a man actually with limited talents (even potentially a one trick pony) elevated above his abilities with predictable consequences. Historians will have to judge whether he or Johnson were the biggest disaster

6) to illustrate, we can go back to the anti Euro campaign of the 90s and this video
5 mins in it shows a familiar approach, using made up numbers & the NHS to mislead on the argument

Taking Control: The Dominic Cummings Story: bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod… via @BBCiPlayer

7) taking an unrelated thing, the NHS, exaggerating numbers and then tying the 2 together to falsely imply something abstract is negatively impacting something personal is not exactly moral but obviously it's effective. But it's been done by immoral politicians thruout history

8) the point is there were no hostages to fortune for this, if we didn't join the euro there's no promises that have to be fulfilled afterwards. There's no consequences from this misrepresentation. This is when Cummings drank his own koolaid presumably

9) if we fast forward however to post #brexit ref & pre #COVID19 the same approach (£350 m for the NHS, cake and eat it brexit, even better deal) tied to a carelessness for consequences ("don't say what brexit is, ever, don't be tied down on details) wins the battle not the war

10) in fact all of the pre Covid Chaos we were in these past 4 years was directly down to Cummings' approach. It takes no special genius to lie to people, to puposefullly avoid defining in any way what Brexit might mean, to address the trade off - it just takes a lack of scruples

11) everything, no deal brexit, May' s rise and fall, the hollowing out of the Tory party, the division, the useless cabinet now - all of it is because the win was at the deliberate expense of the actual outcome

12) no balanced individual, no one with a conscience will say to themselves "I'll promise you everything, and I'll promise someone else a different everything, so that I can win on a major decision, and I'll worry about the consequences afterwards"

13) if you think this is "genius" then you think it's genius to swear to your husband on the kids lives that you've done the sums and we can afford that new car when you've done no such thing and have no idea

14) the obvious problem is whereas there's no follow up if you lie about the NHS & the euro, there were dire consequences in lying about Brexit, hence the unholy mess this country was in

It ends with a weak and unscrupulous PM closing parliament & getting health officials

15) which brings us to #covid19. There were no consequences of the Cummings approach in the Euro fight, the consequences of this approach were in the future for the Brexit ref

But they are very current & devastating for #covid19

16) you cannot spin 60k deaths, or the virus. If you say 1b PPE items and we find out that's mostly single gloves, it undermines trust but the underlying failure costs lives. If you base policy on focus groups (And getting yourself off the front page) rather than science, ditto

17) mostly, if you've convinced yourself that unparralled lying and "we'll think of something later to distract people" is genius and makes you special, when the nation needs trust, clarity and actual actions, not made up ones, then we all suffer

18) Cummings is not a genius, he's not a one man winning machine. He found a trick 20 years ago (make an outrageous claim about Y to win unrelated argument X) and has repeated it ever since

He's just lucky to have an empty shell of a PM & a courtier press

19) and actually, not only is Cummings supremely unqualified to direct the #Covid19 response he's also just not very good at the day job

The handling of his own scandal has just been a series of colossal missteps and unforced errors

20) humiliating & sacrificing ministers, putting out changing stories, burning the PMs credibility is not a strategy, nor is hunkering down and hoping the public get bored. It may work, it probably will, but it's hardly spin doctor of his generation material

21) in the final analysis it will likely be shown that a lack of scruples and moral compass allowed him to ride a wave, but not create one and certainly not reverse one

Hardly a ringing endorsement