After a good night's sleep, time to find out if I can read the notes I made yesterday while watching the video of the joint MassDOT/FMCB meeting from yesterday.
Let's start with the public comment period. Normally these meetings have two, but the MassDOT meeting ran long so the FMCB never had its own independent session and comment period.
CA Webb of Kendall Sq Assoc is next, talking about Allston multimodal/West Station. Says West Station is "critical" for regional mobility and access for her members' employees. Concerned job growth in Kendall is not included in the modeling.
Alan Wu, no affiliation, is next. He's interested in congestion study. Also supports Red/Blue connection and even @ofsevit's Blue Line to Volpe idea. Says NSRL is necessary for Boston's int'l competitiveness. Suggests creating a transit funding district that could tax developers.
Galen Mook of MassBike speaking for himself as an Allstonian, says modeling for Allston should include vision elements such as a Kendall Sq connection via the Grand Junction, electrification, etc.
Mook says that West Station is being modeled as a "neighborhood" station when it should be treated as a regional connectivity node. Next, Marilyn McNabb rises to address transportation elements of "Age-Friendly" status that cities have been asked to earn by Gov. Baker.
Catherine Carlson, director of transportation for @ABetterCity rises to talk about Allston multimodal, a subject her org has been deeply involved in. Serious concerns about the demand model. Says no scenario modeled supports "aspirational" service.
Carlson wants to see at least one model that reflects a "best in class" service. Emphasizes transfer potential of West Station.
Next up, Richard Prone, the guy who's always moaning about Old Colony service, complains about the commuter rail weekend pass pilot ending while Old Colony riders still face bustitution due to Quincy demolition project.
For some indecipherable reason, Prone opposes doing @NSRailLink properly, wants to see a minimal *two-track shuttle* maintaining existing stub-end terminals.
Christiana Lacusa of Livable Streets talks about the Brighton Ave bus lane pilot scheduled for the spring. Says Allston riders need a permanent solution, not another pilot, and the same approach has already been piloted in enough other locations to just implement by April 1.
Lowell Line passenger Andrew Jenning says weekend substitute bus service is inadequate, references @ofsevit's blog post on how to do it better and cheaper. (Probably no changes will be made as PTC installation there is scheduled to wrap up by December IIRC.)
Next up is a block of @NSRailLink commenters; I didn't write down most of what they said. Brad Bellows: "We've been coasting on what we inherited". John Kuiper, MA Sierra Club: NSRL relieves overcrowded downtown subway connections.
After one late public comment, we move on to Secretary @Steph_Pollack's report to her board. Moving Together conference highlights, RTA task force RFP is out, final report postponed by leg until February. New RMV service centers open, popular, reduced wait times.
Pollack moves on to describe some recently launched studies. First is East-West Rail, and 18 month study of passenger rail service options between Boston and Pittsfield. Will develop six options, one of which will provide 90 minute trips from "Western Mass" (read Springfield).
(This is potentially a scheduling nightmare on the Worcester Line unless this service takes over most CR Worcester express runs *and* the third track is rebuilt.)
In other newly launched studies, an RFP was posted 11/9 for the Bus Network Redesign study, and another 11/13 for a Lynn Transit Action Plan. The Allston multimodal "throat" study comment period was extended to 11/30 so the IRG can finish eval of @ABetterCity's hybrid proposal.
Some comments about the @NSRailLink feasibility study, notes a 12/10 public meeting at which point a preferred alternative is to be presented. No federal partner agency to support a future EIS.
Some talk about the structure of the capital planning process, which is divided along three axes: assets, service structure, and priority places.
Next up is the report of Highway Administrator Jonathan Gulliver. The legislature approved a supplemental budget that increases Chapter 90 funding to cities and towns by $40m. Talks about snow and ice preparation, early snowstorm last Thursday, holiday travel getting worse.
The Whittier Bridge replacement won an award. Gulliver notes this is the first project Mass. has ever built to combine Interstate Highway bridge with ped/bike facilities on the same structure.
Next agenda item is the congestion study. To consider four sources: capacity, incidents, work zones, weather. Also look at land-use contribution to problem. Report due next May, to be performed by a contractor already doing related work under an SHRP2 grant.
Next up, Patricia Leavenworth PE talks about transportation asset management. Inventories completed or in progress, due dates. Notes that the railroad infra the state has purchased from freight railroads has never been inventoried before, because no federal program funds SGR.
The board votes on a contract amendment relating to Boston Harbor dredging. The FMCB officially joins the meeting, and there are two votes relative to a bond transfer between MassDOT and the MBTA; each board must vote separately to approve their end of the deal.
Of note, after the settlement, FMCB member @BrianLang123 is back after his union voted to accept a new contract with Marriott, ending a protracted strike. Absent today is board member @MonicaTibbitsN but hopefully there will be no more quorum issues at future meetings.
Next agenda item is a rare outside presentation by former governors Mike Dukakis and Bill Weld, along with Clay Schofield, former project manager, and @Northeastern economist Barry Bluestone, all addressing the need for @NSRailLink.
Duke talks about how he just turned 85, and even though his family tends to be long lived, he doesn't think he'll see 2040 and wants NSRL, which he started as governor, prioritized to be completed in his lifetime.
A few Dukakis quotes:
"How can one mile of [NSRL] cost as much as London's Crossrail at 20 miles?"
"A first class regional rail system"
"I think it's time now to get moving."
"How can one mile of [NSRL] cost as much as London's Crossrail at 20 miles?"
"A first class regional rail system"
"I think it's time now to get moving."
Gov. Weld has three points:
1) "Labor mobility is an important ingredient in regional competitiveness."
2) Tunneling costs have decreased dramatically.
3) Consider avoided costs (he doesn't mention SSX by name but clearly references it obliquely).
1) "Labor mobility is an important ingredient in regional competitiveness."
2) Tunneling costs have decreased dramatically.
3) Consider avoided costs (he doesn't mention SSX by name but clearly references it obliquely).
Clay Schofield was NSRL project manager during the Weld administration. He notes various flaws in the feasibility study. Prof. Barry Bluestone points to flaws in the study's economic model.
Bluestone talks about the "bifurcated labor market", and the effect it has on competitiveness and housing costs. Notes that the regional housing price gradient has flattened sharply; last year house prices rose faster in Lawrence and Lowell than in Brookline and Newton.
Bluestone urges public education campaign to reduce VMT. Says reduction of 13% in VMT would double average traffic speeds with big improvement in pollution, carbon, and household budgets.
In the Q&A, Braintree mayor Sullivan talks about the "Big Dig hangover", need to preserve the RoW, figure out funding. Suggests looking at the Rose Kennedy Greenway betterment fund as an example.
Next, FMCB chair Aiello makes the board's statutory monthly report to the MassDOT board. There is then a vote on renewing the MBTA's short-term lending facility, and then we move into the presentation on transportation demand modeling which will eat the rest of the meeting.
Planning director David Muller gives an overview of the modeling process. Population and employment models updated every four years. Includes nearly entire commutershed, which is all of MA and RI, plus southern NH. Different horizon years used for different studies.
Federal regulations generally require 20 year horizon, but MEPA requires 10 year forecast, and often there are project-specific intermediate points (e.g., forecast facility opening date).
Sec. Pollack interjects: transportation demand model is not sensitive to changes in transit service, less than 10% of trips in the model are assigned to transit. Infrastructure investment is not allowed by fed rules to have an effect on land use (!)
Tim Reardon of @MAPCMetroBoston presents the population and employment inputs to the model. It's not a dynamic econometric model. Top-line projections (for all MA): population ↑ 13%, households ↑ 24%, employment ↑ 10% by 2040.
International immigration is the largest driver of population growth in MA, and the largest fraction of immigrants settle in the MAPC region. Only Cape Cod is projected to lose households: seasonality difficult to model.
On the employment side, population-unconstrained employment is projected to grow at 2.5× the projected population. Labor force in the model is constrained because workers have to live somewhere, and not all development projects will be completed.
By 2040, the share of the population under 80% of area median income is anticipated to rise from 37% to 40%. Next, Scott Peterson of CTPS describes the Regional Travel Demand Model. I took specific note of the limitations of the model:
1) Poor temporal resolution: trips are assigned to four dayparts: a trip at 6am is not distinguished from a trip at 8:45.
2) Effect of passenger comfort, security, convenience improvements are not modeled.
3) Only transit services open to public included (no employee shuttles)
2) Effect of passenger comfort, security, convenience improvements are not modeled.
3) Only transit services open to public included (no employee shuttles)
4) Transit capacity constraints are not modeled: if a trip is assigned to transit, model assumes that the user will be able to complete the journey.
5) Model doesn't include timeliness constraints (e.g., work hours or day care pickup)
6) There is no TNC data to model.
5) Model doesn't include timeliness constraints (e.g., work hours or day care pickup)
6) There is no TNC data to model.
(The state is now collecting TNC trip data at the municipal level but this is not sufficient granularity to use in the model.)
Final takeaway: 2018 commuter rail counts should be released in December. In the discussion of Allston multimodal that follows, Aiello sounds a bit frustrated that the modeling isn't really pointed at the decisions the MBTA needs to make about transit service there.
The rest of the agenda was postponed when both boards lost quorum.
Please unroll for posterity, @threadreaderapp
