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visakan veerasamy @visakanv
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
a question to ask IMO when faced with any claim from any study is always, "could it be the other way round"?

ie, if "persistent pot use is linked to economic and social problems at midlife", could it be that people with economic and social problems are likelier to smoke pot?
"But an effect can become a cause, reinforcing the original cause and producing the same effect in an intensified form, and so on indefinitely. A man may take to drink because he feels himself to be a failure, and then fail all the more completely because he drinks." – Orwell
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step right up for another storytelling adventure from visa and jon, of the struggles of Small Business Hero(es)

there are over 80 slides in this, I'm going to leave out about half of them (the statistics and stuff... if you want you can look them up, I'll link to it at the end)
it's extra poignant for me to re-read this now that I'm a feral free agent myself

define success for yourself, don't let other people define it for u
our hero is inspired

(keep it simple!)
Read 39 tweets
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I didn’t quite realise until watching the Reputation stadium tour on Netflix: Taylor Swift is a religion
I’m not really joking
Choosing to work the 🐍 into her act and brand (it’s what her haters were calling her) is a particularly genius move. Doesn’t take a lot of cleverness to come up with it; it takes savvy, conviction and persuasion chops to execute on it
Read 8 tweets
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So many people have all sorts of explanations for why Britain can’t be like Singapore but hardly anybody seems to grasp the number one reason:

We are smol

We have less than 10% of your population and we’re physically smaller than London
Read 3 tweets

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Great opportunity to speak at #ASSA2019 American Economics Association/American Finance Association joint luncheon. Here are my slides: goo.gl/tWcLoM
Machine learning brings great opportunities for improvement in empirical work and for improving firm efficiency. Managers and regulators face similar challenges, given black box algorithms built by engineers who may lack context. Need analytic framework to analyze, guide usage.
Causal inference framework helps with some of the challenges, both in terms of describing problems and suggesting solutions.
Read 8 tweets
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💬 I often get Q’s like these:

How did you get your first customers for WIP? How did you grow BetaList’s traffic? Etc.

Makers are looking to reverse-engineer success. I see it everywhere.

I don’t think it works that way and the answers to those questions are mostly useless. 💥
I have built dozens of different products over the last couple of years. The vast majority failed. 😭

Surely if I know the answers to these questions, but still fail over and over again, these answers aren’t that useful. 🤷‍♀️

So what’s a better question to ask? 🤔
99.9% of the questions I receive are about the products that did well. In a way that makes sense, because we quickly forget about those that didn’t succeed.

🧠 This is known as survivorship bias.

Focusing on what survived, while ignoring what made it survive in the first place.
Read 14 tweets
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Deep Thoughts

1. I mowed the lawn today, and after doing so, I sat down and had a cold beer. The day was really quite beautiful, and the drink facilitated some deep thinking. My wife walked by and asked me what I was doing, and I said, "Nothing."
2. The reason I said "nothing" instead of saying "just thinking" is because she then would have asked, "About what?" At that point I would have had to explain that men are deep thinkers about various topics, which would lead to other questions.
3. Finally, I pondered an age old question: Is giving birth more painful than getting kicked in the nuts? Women always maintain that giving birth is way more painful than a guy getting kicked in the nuts, but how could they know?
Read 5 tweets
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The Creators of the World’s Misfortunes
by Joseph Goebbels
"One could not understand this #war if one did not always keep in mind the fact that International J//ewry stands behind all the unnatural forces that our united enemies use to attempt to deceive the world and keep humanity in the dark.
"It is, so to speak, the mortar that holds the enemy coalition firmly together, despite its differences of class, ideology, and interests.
Read 87 tweets
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1/ Thoughts on ethics: cryptocurrency is the wild west. That produces lots of opportunity to make a quick buck with unethical behavior. There are some clear black and white examples, but also lots of gray area.
2/ A first basic principle is disclosure. Disclosing conflicts of interest is easy and ethical best practice. I try to consistently disclose my relationship with any asset or project that I mention in an investment context.
3/ Another basic principle is fiduciary duty that varies from person to person. The ethical responsibilities of someone fundraising for a project are different from someone investing their own money, vs someone investing the capital of others etc.
Read 10 tweets
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It would seem to be a mistake to not have taken peoples' very real, practical concerns more seriously irishexaminer.com/ireland/trump-…
This was the article which had been retweeted newsweek.com/trump-building…
3/ Given extent, range, & specificity of research that has gone into making appeal so far it raises certain questions about how the local council justifies itself as operating for the greater good of all of its locality-while pumping publicity for... friendsoftheirishenvironment.org/press-releases… …
Read 13 tweets

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