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Noah Smith @Noahpinion
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Interest rates! Interest rates!
This is my nuanced, detailed expert commentary on the Fed doing what it had said it was going to do and what everyone knew it was going to do.
More brilliant commentary: Pinterest should start a financing arm, just so they can have Pinterest rates.
Also: "Fed" is not an acronym. It is short for "Federal Reserve". If you see someone writing "FED" in all caps unironically, you must tease that person mercilessly.
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One thing I think would help reduce elite Millennial burnout/disappointment/rage is for people to stop thinking that their job should save the world.

"Save the world" and "make the world a better place" are probably just things employers tell you to get you to work for cheap.
Maybe your job will give you meaning and purpose and a sense of doing good for the world.

Or maybe it'll just make you some money so you can raise some kids, have some pet rabbits, and be active in your local community.

There's more than one way to get meaning in life.
Also, people glorify saving the world when it probably just gives you PTSD.

We like watching Star Wars and Lord of the Rings and whatever, but we wouldn't want to actually fight Darth Vader or slog through Mordor. That would cause major burnout!
Read 3 tweets
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1/Since Trump's demand for his Wall is in the headlines, I thought it would be a good time for a thread about a history book I just read:

"Dividing Lines: The Politics of Immigration Control in America", by Daniel Tichenor (2002)

amazon.com/Dividing-Lines…
2/The book starts out with a chapter or two of dense, unnecessary political science jargon, saying that - essentially - U.S. immigration policy tends to move very slowly, because powerful politicians and officials resist the tide of public opinion.
3/But most of the book is an extremely readable, eye-opening history of U.S. immigration policy, from the founding through the 1990s.

It shows how the immigration debates we're now having have been with us, in some form or another, for a very long time.
Read 27 tweets
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Thread about why very high tax rates on very rich people don't raise much revenue (or reduce inequality much, even within the top tier).

Our system has a million loopholes. Closing them is more important than raising top rates.
That's not to say there's a trade-off between raising the top rate and closing loopholes! They are complements, not substitutes.

But if you just raise the top rate without closing loopholes, you'll likely be disappointed.
The fact is, raising effective taxes on the very rich will require a comprehensive sustained push on a large number of policy fronts. There is not going to be one silver bullet.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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...capito perché non se ne uscirà mai..?!?!
Dollar Shortage #FED
...le due chart "chiave"
Seguire #Fed fund rate futures e Eurodollar Futures oltre al libor è l'unica cosa che conta davvero e che impatta l'economia globale e la natura dei mercato aldilà degli algos telecomandati...
Libor up by 0.35 bps
Libor at 2.61813%
SPOT LOIS at 28.513
Read 135 tweets
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More on the fragility of free speech: Guelzo claims it began in 1919 with Abrams. That was a step on the path, I agree, but not until Brandenburg v. Ohio did we really establish it in law: city-journal.org/free-speech-cr… I
I agree with Guelzo that we're rapidly revoking it through extrajudicial censorship. Cultural and professional sanctions have a serious chilling effect, just as legal penalties do. If we want to keep freedom of speech--not just the formal right, but the culture of freedom--
We have to recognize how precious it is, learn to make arguments for it that go beyond, "It's the First Amendment!"--we need to really make the case to our fellow citizens that freedom of expression is both inherently good and *good for us.*
Read 17 tweets
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Going to do something I basically never do anymore because it triggers a feeding frenzy, but I don't have my mind made up about a major topic, this time: impeachment.

A friend in the business asked me yesterday if I would support it. And I'm unsure.
I am not a lawyer, and unlike most on Twitter dot com, I don't pretend to be either. I'm not sure if what we know comes to the level of impeachment, but here's my personal regular old American perspective.
I'm still playing catch up (making another fatal mistake, admitting I may not have all of the facts currently known), but it appears the only thing protecting the POTUS from an indictment is the fact that he's the POTUS.
Read 10 tweets
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"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." - Mike Tyson | This is so much true in the context of Draw-down as well.
We believe we can withstand a deep draw-down, but that draw-down becomes a reality, all hell breaks loose with most investors running for cover (read, Sell at whatever price markets are willing to buy)
Investing in Large Cap is nice, but don't bother being on Twitter where you cannot showcase how the stock you picked went up 10X. You should be lucky if they double in 3 - 5 years at best. Boring!
Read 20 tweets
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Very excited for @austin_walker's talk tonight on making+playing games during (the latest) time of political struggle & social upheaval. Free and open to anyone, downtown Brooklyn--come on by! eventbrite.com/e/nyu-game-cen…
Gonna live-tweet some of this talk! @austin_walker is discussing how, on a good day in these times, he feels affinity towards Walter Benjamin’s approach to understanding how the Nazis had come to power. On a bad day? Theodore Adorno.
He sees Adorno’s views as pessimistically hating every hegemonic sale of individuality via consumerism, unable to connect with marginal voices producing culture like blues and jazz
Read 40 tweets
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Going full-time Youtube has been eye-opening in a lot of ways. You’re chasing unhappiness in a strange way. You grow, but as you do, so do the number of people that are unhappy with you and the have no qualms sharing that fact. (1/x)
You make decisions, hoping to satisfy the largest number of people. Not all, most. But the comments that got to you before, calling you all kinds of insipid things, are now multiplied. The noise becomes louder. (2/x)
The positive stuff is louder too, but the distinction becomes amplified. You will literally have people telling you that you have made the best thing you ever have, and the worst thing you ever have. 2017, my dudes: polarization is in charge. (3/x)
Read 8 tweets

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