Thread by @CevallosLaw

1] Felicity Huffman will probably get a straight probation sentence. The other parents who plead early in the college admission scandal will also have a similar shot at a non-custodial sentence. Here's why...(thread)
@melhelm @danielnorwick @Morning_Joe @KristianMMonroe

2] Huffman's plea agreement lays out the terms. She pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit mail fraud and honest services mail fraud. She faces a statutory maximum penalty of 20 years.
justice.gov/usao-ma/page/f…

3] This is one of those cases that demonstrate the disconnect between statutory maximums and the sentencing guidelines. Maximums are not really a good forecast of a sentence, especially with defendants who have no criminal records. Let's take a look at her guidelines:

4] Intro to Federal Sentencing: the guidelines are a function of a defendant's (a) prior record score; and (b) the seriousness of the offense. Once you know the offense level and criminal history, you go to the chart: ussc.gov/sites/default/…

5] Huffman has no prior criminal history. B/c her crime has a stat max of 20 years, that's offense level "7", and criminal history category I. She gets a 4 level increase because of the alleged loss. Then, a 2 level reduction for accepting responsibility. Net increase: 2 = 9.

6] We go to the table. Her guidelines range is 4-10 mos. BUT, the govt is okay with her arguing that her loss/gain amount is less, which could get her into a lower offense level 7, and a guidelines range of 0-6 months. From a max of 20 years...to a possible probation sentence!

7] BUT, the sentencing guidelines are advisory only (and have been since a SCT case called Booker over a decade ago). Court has to calculate range, but judge can depart from it, particularly when a deft pleads guilty and the govt gives favorable recommendations.

8] Stats: Almost 1/3 of ALL fraud defts received straight probation (2017). In a five year period, approximately 20% to 25% of fraud offenders received a sentence below the applicable guideline range because the govt sponsored the below range sentence.
ussc.gov/sites/default/…

9] Huffman has a good shot to get into the 0-6mo range, but even if she's in the 4-10mo range, a court can depart from the guidelines and give her less (0). Huffman is a good candidate for a straight probation sentence.