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1. As we obsess with the Pak F-16 we shot down and/or the damage done in Balakot, its time for a reality check. Look at this pic - its a Chinese J-11 D prototype fitted with an Active Electronically Scanned Array radar. Why should we be worried? Read on ... 
2. India's Su-30MKI and the J-11 are based on the old Russian Sukhoi-27, but while China has aced upgrading its variants, India's Su-30MKI is essentially obsolete in comparison. Thats right, new build Su-30s being churned out at HAL are now obsolete as they enter service.
3. The Chinese J-11D has a home-grown Active Electronically Scanned Array radar, a generation ahead of the NIIP NOIIM Bars the Su-30MKI operates, and likely has a newer and better line-up of air to air missiles with longer ranges than the R-77 the IAF uses.
4. Why is this important? Because, as of now, the IAF operates at least 249 Su-30MKIs and in a shooting game, this fighter will be outgunned not just by the J-11 but other fighters in China's arsenal. In capable hands, a Pak AF F-16 Blk-52+ may also have an edge.
5. India's planned upgrade of the Su-30MKI to standards close to the Russian Su-35 is nowhere close to being closed out. If this were signed today, IAF experts tell me that it will likely take 5 years for the upgrade to be validated and 2 years for the fleet to be upgraded.
6. In other words, as China starts testing cutting edge J-11 variants, India has not even signed the contract for work to start on an upgrade, something which is inevitable given that the IAF operates more Su-30s than any other type of fighter.
7. The non-recurring cost of validating the technologies that go into an upgraded IAF Su-30 would be in the range of Rs.8000 to Rs.9000 crores if done in Russia. The cost of upgrading each jet would be Rs.200 crores. These are ballpark numbers.
8. Why would it take so long if the upgraded Su-35 is already in service in Russia (and China for that matter)? Because, the architecture of the Indian Su-30MKI is different. New wiring will be required. New interfaces will have to be created.
9. The advantage of upgrading the Su-30MKI is that once done, India will also gain a ''unilateral upgrade facility'' to guarantee ''continuous capability enhancement.'' This is critical. The ability to keep upgrading the fighter MUST reside in India ...
10. ... otherwise we will remain in the present situation where we are fundamentally building the fighter to a set (and now obsolete) standard.
11. The radar India will be looking to upgrade the jet with would be the Irbis-E ... which can can detect and track up to 30 airborne targets at one time at ranges near 350~400 kilometers, and attack up to 8.
12. While the Irbis-E isn't an AESA radar (like the one on the J-11D), it is a monumentally powerful radar which, on paper offers twice the bandwidth and improved frequency agility over the BARS, and better Electronic Counter Counter Measures (ECCM).
13. But whats a fighter without its air to air missiles, right? The upgraded bird would likely be armed with the RVV-SD (120 km range) and RVV-BD (400 km range) missiles, completely outclassing anything Pakistan or China have in service.
14. But here's an interesting development - the IAF is looking to integrate the MBDA ASRAAM missile into its Su-30s replacing the R-73 close combat missile (the same one Abhimanyu fired from his MiG-21 Bison). This would also be part of the upgraded Su-30.
15. Finally, for those who are pulling out brochures to suggest the existing R-77s of the Su-30 are ball-park in the same class as the PAF's AIM-12-C5 AMRAAM, please think again. The IAF doesn't believe they are.
