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NEW: two weeks ago I calculated how many seats anti-Brexit parties could miss out on in EU elections by failing to unite
I’ve re-run the analysis using new regional polling:
• If LDs, Greens & Ch․UK are all on ballot, they get 9 seats
• If they’d joined forces, they’d get 21
I’ve re-run the analysis using new regional polling:
• If LDs, Greens & Ch․UK are all on ballot, they get 9 seats
• If they’d joined forces, they’d get 21
Scotland is a great microcosm:
• 6 seats to be distributed
• SNP have 42% of intended votes, then Brexit Party (16), Lab (11), Con (10). Greens, Ch․UK & LDs are on 8, 5 & 4. No chance of a seat
• If they allied, could get as much as 17%. Suddenly 2nd biggest party! Seat won
• 6 seats to be distributed
• SNP have 42% of intended votes, then Brexit Party (16), Lab (11), Con (10). Greens, Ch․UK & LDs are on 8, 5 & 4. No chance of a seat
• If they allied, could get as much as 17%. Suddenly 2nd biggest party! Seat won
Finally:
• Significance of this update is that version one applied national polling split to every region. That misses out on e.g local strength of Greens in South East. This version fixes that, but it doesn't reflect any better on failure of anti-Brexit parties to cooperate.
• Significance of this update is that version one applied national polling split to every region. That misses out on e.g local strength of Greens in South East. This version fixes that, but it doesn't reflect any better on failure of anti-Brexit parties to cooperate.
