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NEW: we ran the numbers, and anti-Brexit parties’ failure to form a united entity could cost them half their potential seats in EU elections ft.com/content/17c356…
• If Lib Dems, Greens & Change UK all appear on ballot, they get 7 seats
• If they’d joined forces, they’d get 16
• If Lib Dems, Greens & Change UK all appear on ballot, they get 7 seats
• If they’d joined forces, they’d get 16
Notes:
• We’re using an average of polls for the Euro elections from April
• We’re applying the national vote shares to each region
• We’re only calculating seats for England, since national parties complicate things in Wales & Scotland
• We’re using an average of polls for the Euro elections from April
• We’re applying the national vote shares to each region
• We’re only calculating seats for England, since national parties complicate things in Wales & Scotland
More: here’s how vote shares and seat shares would compare if the three anti-Brexit parties all appear on the ballot paper (same methods as above).
• Lib Dems: 9% in the polls, 12% of seats.
• Greens: 7% in the polls, zero seats.
• Change UK: 5% in the polls, zero seats.
• Lib Dems: 9% in the polls, 12% of seats.
• Greens: 7% in the polls, zero seats.
• Change UK: 5% in the polls, zero seats.
Here’s vote share vs seat share if the trio had formed a single united entity — a single anti-Brexit option on ballot papers.
• Combined share of votes: 21%
•Combined share of seats: 27%
• Combined share of votes: 21%
•Combined share of seats: 27%
Finally: why does this happen?
As @chrishanretty highlighted yesterday (), it’s not so much the D'Hondt method, but the [low] numbers of seats in each voting region, which create de-facto minimum vote share thresholds parties must meet to get any seats:
As @chrishanretty highlighted yesterday (), it’s not so much the D'Hondt method, but the [low] numbers of seats in each voting region, which create de-facto minimum vote share thresholds parties must meet to get any seats:
Unfortunately for the Greens & Change UK, they’re both hovering right around — or below, in the case of CUK — the lowest of those thresholds.
Now, we applied the national vote share to all regions, and this isn’t how things would go on the day, so that might help Greens in particular to win seats in their stronghold of the South East, but the top-line is clear: the trio would win more seats together than apart.
*ends*
*ends*
And a big thanks to my excellent colleague @caletilford, who calculated the same in JavaScript so we could ensure we were getting the same results using different tools & methods.
#ddj methodology win!
#ddj methodology win!
