Thread by @BlueSteelDC

My two cents about the state of the race

The race won’t be decided this far out but the ability to reset your campaign if you aren’t the frontrunner becomes harder as time passes.

Let me explain

Elizabeth Warren recently said that when Barack Obama and Donald Trump won were they considers electable.

And that was pretty frickin disingenuous.

The manner of Trumps win is still under investigation and he lost popular metrics

Obama won because well..

Obama was winning a coalition of young White progressives and he was a media darling ... once he won Iowa.

He started winning African Americans.

No it didn’t happen before Iowa.

Michelle Obama even made the very famous complaint - about why AA weren’t supporting her husband

African Americans are about 25% of the electorate in a primary. This made all the difference. HRC fun fact kept every one of her other coalitions of support.

Obama’s winning personality didn’t swing her other coalition’s over. And at the end of the day he won a close match

Do ppl forget despite how liberal and how progressive it is- and suppose momentum he was on- he lost some of the last contest - including California.

African Americans are less than 3% of that population so that was going to be harder win given his demonstrated demo strengths

What I am trying to say is after a few months of this - you can see sharply whose winning what demo and that consistency of their appeal becomes evident.

That dynamic sets in like cement after a short time.

What is shifting is other candidates.

If you were splitting support with another candidate for X demo and that candidate drops out - yes that may move the need enough in a tight enough race to affect win or loose dynamics

And since no one is above 50% yes there is some wiggle

The problem with us who do have an eye to gauge these things is

It’s Joe Biden
It’s Bernie Sanders/ Warren
Harris/ Booker/ Castro
Mayor Pete

And everyone else. So I have to look at whose a lot of everyone else second choice. That’s a little fluid right now

Elizabeth Warren has no ability to win Iowa signaling to (fellow African Americans) she is now really viable and that the time is now to make history.

That is what was happening. So everyone who tries to make this comparison sounds stupid, Bernie did it too.

Kamala Harris has that ability.

And if she could rally black voters to her - it’s like waking a sleeping giant and riding on its shoulders.

Right now she is actually a top choice of the same white college voters that boasted Obama.

Kamala has closer parallels to Obama but

But Kamala is running a really different campaign. And black voters are more concerned about Trump to take a risk - so she is going to have to dominate in a way she isn’t- to convince POC.

The environment is tougher.

And Frankly she isn’t doing as well looking main stream

So where on we in the race - I am being nice to all members of the top five.

They are all flawed in some annoying way I don’t wish to deal with.

But their drop out order has more ability to determine the race than anything else. The debates maybe second.

After the two debates - I don’t think opinions will be as malleable as some of you are hoping.

Then it’s just gamification of who drops out in what order

By SC you can really predict how the race will play out for every candidate over the rest of the contest

For all the tea in Taiwan - I don’t understand why the DNC just doesn’t shorten the calendar. There is really no reason to have a long primary and it’s disadvantages us. If the primary was 3 months shorter - HRC would be in the White House right now. And I would be going to Cuba