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The serious low in recent times was set on 26th October 2018. Almost every index made a low which save for a few sector indices has yet to be tested.
Nifty low on that day was 10,004 & closed at 10,030. Today, its at 11,691 - up 16.50% from that day's close
Nifty Mid Cap 100 made a low a few days before - 9th October at 15,803. Today, it closed at 17,145. Up 8.5% from the low.
Nifty Small Cap low was on same day as Nifty 50. Today, its up 5.6% from that day's close. In other words, all three major indices are well above what they were in October
Stocks have been a different story. If you ignore stocks that were trading less than 10 Rupees on October 26, today you will find that 39% have closed below their close on Oct 26. 4 our of every 10 stocks is below their October lows.
Here a a few charts. 5 Year Rolling Returns of major indices. What is common between them?
Analyzing the data in another way
The pain is being felt because we are seeing one side of the coin - draw-down from their recent peaks.
The Economy we are told goes through cycles of Boom & Bust. While coming on Modi in 2014 may have super charged it, the cycle from market perspective actually started in late December 2011.
So, lets take a look from another angle - How have stocks performed in the longer run assuming we are now close to running a full cycle (Trough to Trough)
Once again, I clean the data of 2011 by removing all stocks that traded below Rupees 10. This leaves us with 954 stocks that till trade today.
Of that 954, 273 stocks trade below their price of that day. In other words 28% of stocks have lost money even on the long term.
How have the rest performed. Here is a chart showing their absolute returns for the period 20/12/2011 to 19/06/2019
Almost 500 stocks are still 2x or more of where they were in 2011. Yes, the recent fall has been bad, but if you were invested "Right", the pain while there isn't something that is not tolerable.
I am not going to preach how to pick the stocks that performed great - there is no real fool proof way. Luck plays a pivotal role.
I don't know how the markets will go from here - my own thesis based on which I am allocating money is that we won't fall big or rise big for another 6 - 9 months at the very least.
Further sticking my neck out, I believe that we are at no risk of seeing another 2008 style of melt-down. History repeats but never in the same way.
200 Week EMA has no Scientific rationale but I use that to get a hold on where markets are & how deep we may go. Mid is testing it while Small Cap is below it. Historically, such instances are more of Time Correction than Price Correction going forward
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