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Staedtler
@Staedtler
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I keep saying June when I mean July, and I wish I wouldn't do that.

Sorry. What we're looking out for on JULY 25th is the formal notice of prorogation.
And if that's what happens, and I imagine it will, then Brexit is, as near as dammit, certain to never happen
Because once prorogued Parliament can only be opened again with a Queen's speech. And that will either fail to get through or be amended to include a referendum.

And if it fails to get through, it's an election with manifestos, and a referendum.
Oh yes, and if Parliament is not prorogued it means the session never ends and nothing parliament has already voted on this last two years can be put back to another vote.

Including the withdrawal agreement
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
We've moved on again this week. we're no longer waiting for Labour to get their thumb out of their arse. They can call a confidence vote if they want, but it won't make any difference.
We know the summer recess begins on July 25th. What we're looking out for is whether they adjourn for the summer or prorogue, bring the session to an end.
And then we get the Radnor by election in August, where the Tories are likely to have their majority reduced to 1.
We know they can't survive on a majority of 1. That's just political reality. Nobody could survive on that for very long, and certainly not with Brexit still hanging there to be resolved.
Read 6 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
No, of course there'll be an election. We've established that to reasonable proof.
But if they think it's going to be based on a popularity contest, they're just not thinking.
A general election is completely different to a leadership contest.
There's no opposition at the moment because it's a purely Tory contest. But there will be at an election.
And. And. They have to produce a manifesto at a general election.
Calling an election without thinking it through, and then trying to cook up a manifesto half way through . . .
That was Theresa May's mistake. The polls said she was going to get a 200 seat majority when she called it, and by polling day it was gone.
Read 4 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
Brexit party manifesto - Brexit

Lib Dem manifesto - Remain

Tory . . . ?

Labour . . . ?
This year's general election will be about Brexit, and the Lib Dems and Brexters already know what they stand for.
But what do labour and the Tories do? If I know Corbyn, he'll come out with some twattery about a people's Brexit.
If they say remain, they lose half their votes to the Brexters. If they say Brexit, they lose the other half to the Lib Dems.

Theresa May's idea was to pretend that the referendum had already put an end to it. But it turned out she was mistaken.
Read 4 tweets

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Would you be outraged if Brexit was delayed any further?

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Jonathan Lis
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Well, whaddaya know! After 18 months of Brexiters endlessly telling us we’re lying & fear-mongering, gov’s just confirmed that, as things stand, air services between UK and EU stop the day after no-deal kicks in.

Brexiters have been lying through their teeth. Do spread the word.
There’s more. Here gov confirms aviation with 17 other countries comes under EU deals. All gov says is that it’s ‘confident’ replacement agreements will be agreed. Which, I’m sure you’ll agree coming from this famously dependable and competent government, is extremely reassuring
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(((Frances Coppola)))
@Frances_Coppola
According to Economists for Free Trade's press release, their report "concludes that the best way of delivering a “Clean Brexit” is to leave under a World Trade Deal covered by WTO rules."

There is no such thing as a World Trade Deal.
Press release also repeats previous erroneous claims that UK's non-EU trading partners already trade with it "under WTO rules", ignoring the fact that all of them have some kind of trade arrangement. There isn't anywhere in the world that trades with the UK under pure WTO rules.
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