,
11 tweets,
7 min read
Read on Twitter
My friend asked me to look into Anthony Miller's rookie year. Inspired by @steelRstats' post, I analyzed the 2018 CHI WR's. Miller was one of Trub's most productive receivers, and there is a lot to like about what he showed last year. Here's my thread
@steelRstats Miller's targets were inconsistent and added +EP less than half the time. He made up for it with big plays though, as Miller led the the corps in EPA/target by a wide margin, fueled by his team-leading 7 touchdowns. (Gabriel also looking good on this chart). 
@steelRstats All three receivers ended up with similar aDOTs, and this doesn't tell much about the distribution. Burton looks like a disappointment so far, and throwing to RB's is an uphill battle.
@steelRstats Here's a box plot, instead. Miller lacks the deep shots, but he does have widest range in the middle. Very similar to ARob's. Unexpectedly, the majority of Gabriel's targets were not actually all that deep, but his countless bombs skew his averages up.
@steelRstats Two more graphs: Miller was not targeted as a deep threat, at least not in the ways Robinson & Gabriel were. Got a ton of intermediate work, though. Violin plots are fun.
@steelRstats Anthony made money after the catch, once he had the ball in his hands. He averaged over a yard more than Robinson, Burton, or Gabriel. Tarik was the YAC God, but it was enough for the 2nd spot.
I'm salivating at the thought of Nagy scheming a healthy Miller into open space.
I'm salivating at the thought of Nagy scheming a healthy Miller into open space.
@steelRstats Gabriel's career high in catch rate presumably spiked his EPA/play value we saw before. Expect some regression next year for him. But Miller was right around the expected rate, as was ARob.
If he can stay healthy and continue to improve, there's a lot to like.
If he can stay healthy and continue to improve, there's a lot to like.
@steelRstats He did get 7 touchdowns, though. Is his red zone production simply skewing the numbers?
Somewhat, but not as much as on/off as Burton is. Gabriel actually went down, probably due to his long targets outside the endzone and a small sample size.
Somewhat, but not as much as on/off as Burton is. Gabriel actually went down, probably due to his long targets outside the endzone and a small sample size.
@steelRstats Miller did not see a drop off in consistency in the redzone like the others despite higher % of his targets coming closer to the endzone. This is really encouraging - he's not a prototypical jump-ball redzone threat, but he was still productive. Let's hope it's not just noise.
@steelRstats Final Thoughts: In nearly every facet, Miller was a top-2 Bears receiver. There's a real argument that Miller outplayed Arob in 2018. If Nagy can get some deep looks going this year, Miller's production could explode. A second year and an offseason to get healthy? I'm excited.
@steelRstats Again, thanks to @steelRstats as a lot of my code was directly sourced from his work. Give him a follow. As always, here's what I used to create the previous graphs: gist.github.com/ChiBearsStats/…
