Thread by @pmdfoster

@Holger_Nehring @faisalislam So. The number I’ve been given privately by industry is that there are currently approx 2,000 customs clearing agents. The estimate is we’ll need 20,000. Even if that’s off by 50% (and no reason to believe it is) still massive gulf. /1

@Holger_Nehring @faisalislam The prob is that lot of U.K. freight forwarders are small biz. Even if @BorisJohnson creates full blown panic among them and the go to prepare for “no deal”, there isn’t time or people to service them. /2

@Holger_Nehring @faisalislam @BorisJohnson One simple thing that @britishchambers have suggested is that HMT auto-generates EORI Numbers (EU customs numbers) for everyone with a VAT number. But HMT said “no” coz they want biz to engage. @BCCAdam wrote to Hammond on this in Dec 18 FWIW, but I think still no cigar. /3

@Holger_Nehring @faisalislam @BorisJohnson @britishchambers @BCCAdam More generally major logistics companies, In told, have said they’ll only have bandwidth to deal with existing clients, which won’t help small biz who need not just customs/EORI but all the other ancillary and reg forms, depending on what they’re hauling. /4

@Holger_Nehring @faisalislam @BorisJohnson @britishchambers @BCCAdam In the end they’ll all get the hang of it, and those that can’t - or can’t afford it - will just give up, with net loss to economy. But the bottle neck leaves U.K. no deal planners expecting very significant delays initially /5

@Holger_Nehring @faisalislam @BorisJohnson @britishchambers @BCCAdam Those who have had full sight of planning tell me the ranges are quite broad coz of variables on EU side.

But they estimated 6-10K trucks Dover-Calais and only 300 spaces on French side for non-compliant U.K. trucks. So quickly you’d get blowback is the fear. /6

@Holger_Nehring @faisalislam @BorisJohnson @britishchambers @BCCAdam The plan, as I was told it, is to stack M20 and Manston Airfield and then only release vehicles into system/flow when Brexit compliant to avoid blockage EU side that caused blowback. /7

@Holger_Nehring @faisalislam @BorisJohnson @britishchambers @BCCAdam Much will depend on French. For example understand they have Turquerie Park of some 30 hectares but that’s for stacking FR/EU lorries. Hope on U.K. side is that FR will show flex and use it to stack U.K. fails also. /8

@Holger_Nehring @faisalislam @BorisJohnson @britishchambers @BCCAdam Was also told that some big Co’s were planning to bypass Dover and go to Hull, driving down to Dover from up north. Not clear what that does to M25 traffic flows, but must be risk not pretty. /9

@Holger_Nehring @faisalislam @BorisJohnson @britishchambers @BCCAdam In short. Lots of uncertainty - on how bad it will be, how quickly impacts come visible. But no-one I’ve spoken to in industry or Whitehall is remotely sanguine about any of it FWIW. 10/ENDS