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1/2 I don't know if @ProfRGold or @PoliceLawProf have looked into this at all, but I'd be very interested in an argument that facts cannot amount to probable cause unless, at the very least, they would survive Twombly-Iqbal plausibility review if alleged in a civil context.
@ProfRGold @PoliceLawProf 2/2 It seems like there are many opinions finding probable cause based on conduct that, at most, is merely logically consistent with the possibility of criminal activity, yet doesn't plausibly & affirmatively make the possibility of criminal activity the most likely inference.
@ProfRGold @PoliceLawProf 3/2 If I did crim, I'd love to write an article based on Llewellyn's piece called The Dueling Canons of Probable Cause, showing that for every fact a court has held contributes to probable cause, the opposite fact has also been held to contribute to probable cause just as much.
@ProfRGold @PoliceLawProf 4/2 In law school, it also struck me as odd that probable cause was sufficient for both a search and arrest, given the obvious difference in magnitude of the impact of those actions. You'd think the bar for an arrest would be greater than for just a search.
