THREAD: With the PM having been defeated in calling for an early general election, is it still possible to call an election outside of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act? Via, @instituteforgov
1. First let's get a bit of context. The introduction of the FTPA removed the Prime Minister’s ability to call an election at a time of their choosing. Triggering an early election now requires a vote in Parliament.
2. Under the FTPA, there are two ways in which an early election can be called: if the Government tables a Commons vote for a new election or a vote of no confidence in the Government.
3. Under the FTPA, if the Government tabled a motion for an early election it requires at least two-thirds of all MPs in the Commons (434 MPs) to vote in favour. Theresa May used this mechanism on 19 April 2017 to trigger the election on 8 June 2017.
4. The 2017 General Election was first time that the FTPA has been used and seemed to work as it should, requiring cross-party support for an early election. Theresa May’s sudden announcement after the 2017 Easter break shows that snap elections are still a feature in UK politics
5. The second route to an early election is more complicated. If there is a vote of no confidence in the Government tabled by the Official Opposition, this starts the process for an early election.
6. If a motion worded in a specific way is tabled, the Gov't is under pressure to hold a vote the next day. If the Government lost the vote, it starts a 14-day period in which either a 2nd vote is won that says House has confidence in the Gov't. Otherwise election is triggered.
7. The FTPA provision has never been tried, so this would be new territory. It is not at all clear what the 14-day period is meant to achieve. It could be the same government trying to pass a second vote, having been defeated in the first.
8. It could be a new Conservative Prime Minister attempting a second vote. In theory, it could allow for a government to be formed by the Opposition and attempt to pass a confidence vote, but that would require the incumbent Prime Minister to resign.
9. In any scenario, a majority of MPs would need to provide their support for the Government in the second vote of confidence.
10. Alternatively, the Government and MPs could allow the 14-day period to pass and allow the election to be called. Or they could try and take the initiative and pass a two-thirds motion and have a positive vote for an election.
11. Although the government can no longer resign and table a dissolution motion to call an early election, there is still one way they can get round the two-thirds majority needed under the FTPA.
12. The government could table a short bill which sets aside the provisions of the FTPA to allow an election on a specific date. This bill would only require a simple majority to pass...
13. Although it would also need to pass the Lords and would be open to amendment. In 2017, Theresa May explored this option when she called a snap election – although the Commons ended up giving her the majority she needed under the FTPA.
14. A short bill could also be amended by the Tory rebels, 21 of whom were sacked from the party after defying the whip, who could insert their own November election date.
15. The Prime Minister’s desperation to hold a general election before the October 31 deadline could see him call a vote of no confidence in his own Government, according to Politico.
16. If Mr Johnson did this, he would only require a simple majority to pass an election vote.
17. But this approach has its complications, as it would trigger a 14-day period for Parliament to install an alternative PM.
This would give Mr Corbyn or even ousted Tory rebels the chance to lead a unity government.
This would give Mr Corbyn or even ousted Tory rebels the chance to lead a unity government.
18. In all, with Johnson determined to seek an election, there are possibilities- but each option is imbued with complexity and risk.
