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Thread. In my view Steve Peers and Jo Maugham are both right: if it becomes clear within 14 days of a vote of no confidence that an alternative government led by X commanding the confidence of the House of Commons can be formed, the Queen must appoint X, whatever Johnson does.
As Jo says, there is a difficulty in working out quite how that majority signals itself. A motion of the House would make the matter clear but may be difficult to organise. A public document signed by a majority of MPs would also work, though.
If in those circumstances Johnson refused to resign and to advise the Queen to send for X he would be committing the cardinal sin of U.K. politics: he would be forcing the Queen to take a controversial political decision. The Palace would doubtless make that clear to him.
Moreover, to add to the pressure, there is, as Jo says, a possible legal argument that the Fixed Term Parliaments Act implicitly requires a PM who has lost a VONC to resign if an alternative government emerges within 14 days. So the courts could be approached for a ruling.
It therefore seems to me to be practically certain that Johnson would have to resign in those circumstances.
But it is an example of how a constitution that relies (when it comes to critical issues such as the appointment and dismissal of a PM) on politicians respecting conventions suffers a real risk of break down when they refuse to do so.
