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Between 2007 and 2017, 34 states reduced both imprisonment AND crime rates.

Let this be a lesson.

brennancenter.org/blog/between-2…
Note that 2007-2017 is well AFTER the great crime decline of the 90s, so the state-level crime declines aren't just a reflection of the national trend.
The imprisonment drop of 2007-17 is probably a delayed result of the crime drop of the 1990s. But if letting people out of prison increased crime, we'd expect to see crime rates rise very soon after the decrease in imprisonment. And we just don't see that happening.
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