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, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Meanwhile, on the day's other story I am told from very senior sources that Leo Varadkar did not promise any move on backstop in return for Boris move on regulatory differences between NI and GB
Also other elements of Downing St briefing to @JGForsyth in @spectator very hotly disputed by senior sources
@JGForsyth @spectator V little expectation there is possibility of any last minute deal, whether there is Boris-Leo meeting or not.
@JGForsyth @spectator What would they say after meeting, I ask one minister, who laughs. "I'd say that doorstep will be on the way into the meeting, not on the way out!"
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Pat Leahy
@PatLeahyIT
The thing that James's Downing St source doesn't address is: what happens after no-deal? That's really the strongest card the EU has. It believes no-deal isn't a destination - correctly, I think - and the UK would be driven by self interest to return to table. At which point ...
The EU says - again, drearily - what about the border (and citizens' rights and money)? At that point, after having won election, Boris can make a deal, or do a no-deal. At present he has grave difficulty doing either.
So from Dublin's point of view, the delay makes sense. Even if there was enough time to do a deal before summit (and they believe there isn't), there are good reasons not to
Read 3 tweets
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Pat Leahy
@PatLeahyIT
Following conversations with sources, seems to me that key for Dubln and Bxl is not to be seen to reject Boris proposals out of hand. Nobody believes they are basis for a new deal this month. But EC will engage with London on ideas and London-Dublin contacts will continue.
Asked EC source: Will there be negotiations? "We will ask them questions about it, yes."
Position in Dublin is that Govt won't accept checks as part of a deal. It fears checks more than any other aspect of no-deal, so agreeing to them as part of deal makes no sense.
Read 5 tweets
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Pat Leahy
@PatLeahyIT
Boris and his ministers say they are within reach of a deal. But what do they think in Brussels and Dublin? irishtimes.com/news/world/eur… Not so optimistic, to put it mildly
–The EU side has severe doubts about the British government’s desire and ability to 1) reach a deal, and 2) pass a deal through parliament.
–Johnson’s pronouncements that both sides know the shape of a deal – NI-only backstop, all-Ireland sanitary and phytosanitary zone, alt arrangements to manage the Border, a consent role for Stormont – ignore the fact that this is miles away from the existing withdrawal agreement
Read 9 tweets

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Piet Eeckhout
@PietEeckhout
The UK’s proposal for regulatory alignment of NI, but no customs union, is wholly incoherent and unworkable. A thread to try to elucidate why. 1/
First, it contradicts economic integration theory 101. Customs is the basis, and an internal or common market is a further stage. The proposal puts this on its head for no discernible reason. 2/
Brexiters have always shouted hardest about how following EU regulations constitutes “vassalage”. Yet this proposal accepts this for NI. Seems to me much more intrusive than tariff differences between NI and GB. 3/
Read 13 tweets
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Nick Gutteridge
@nick_gutteridge
1/ EU sources are pointing out today it's not only PM Johnson's demand that the backstop be scrapped that is problematic in his letter to Donald Tusk, but also the fact that it is paired with confirmation that it is the UK's intention to diverge from EU rules in the future.
2/ Johnson said under his trade plan UK rules on areas like environmental, product, and labour standards will 'potentially diverge' in future. So the backstop is unacceptable because it'd make GB choose between following EU regulations or putting up ever greater barriers with NI.
3/ This is seen in Brussels as confirmation of what PM Johnson's sherpa, David Frost, told the Commission in recent meetings - that the UK doesn't want to sign up to the Level Playing Field measures it has proposed for the future relationship, and which Theresa May agreed to.
Read 12 tweets
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Sebastian Payne
@SebastianEPayne
Boris Johnson has written to Donald Tusk outlining his Brexit stance and the changes he wants to the withdrawal agreement. This is an important moment. Key points:

#1: The prime minister says leaving the EU with a deal is his "highest priority". Not heading straight to no deal.
#2: Johnson says his government is “unconditionally committed” to the Good Friday Agreement, deal or no deal. The UK is also committed to maintaining the Common Travel Area.
#3: Johnson says the backstop is “anti-democratic and inconsistent with the sovereignty of the UK”. The issues he cites are the lack of a unilateral exit mechanism and a “substantial” regulatory border between NI and GB.
Read 8 tweets
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Tom McTague
@TomMcTague
EXC: UK plan to win legal guarantees in two key Brexit areas:
1️⃣ Re-insert Para 50 of original 2017 backstop deal, without which, unionists say, the backstop undermines the Good Friday Agreement
2️⃣ Remove NI/GB divergence in food production standards 1/10
politico.eu/article/mays-b…
1️⃣Para50 of Dec 2017 joint report reflected core provisions of Good Friday Agreement, effectively giving Belfast a veto over further joint-working with Dublin. This section was subsequently left out of the final Withdrawal Agreement. Lord Bew and others say this undermines GFA 2/
Para 50 guarantees no new regulatory barriers between NI and GB, “unless, consistent with the [GF Agreement and] the NI Executive agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate." ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…. Backstop allows for distinct NI arrangements without Belfast's consent 3/
Read 10 tweets
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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
On the back of this week's developments, some further thoughts on the strange world of UK politics, building on this: 1/
As ever, the events of this week, in and out of the tunnel, are really well described by @tconnellyRTE. See: 2/
The core problem remains the Irish backstop. As stated previously, if the UK leaves the CU/SM, the EU's external border will fall either across Ireland, or, if NI remains within the CU/SM (for goods), in the Irish Sea. 3/
Read 19 tweets
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Sam Coates Times
@SamCoatesTimes
Much of this conference has gone well for Theresa May, and her allies seem pretty happen

BUT three reasons for caution
1. The DUP has escalated their opposition to possible solutions to the backstop today. Arlene Foster saying no to new regulatory checks in the Irish Sea. Sammy Wilson goes further: “no new regulatory borders” between NI and GB
2. Dominic Raab told conference that if the EU tried to “lock us by the back door” on the customs union, the U.K. cd be left with “no choice” but to leave without a deal.

If he holds to this, how does he see thru this:
Read 5 tweets

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