On the back of this week's developments, some further thoughts on the strange world of UK politics, building on this: 1/
As ever, the events of this week, in and out of the tunnel, are really well described by @tconnellyRTE. See: 2/
The core problem remains the Irish backstop. As stated previously, if the UK leaves the CU/SM, the EU's external border will fall either across Ireland, or, if NI remains within the CU/SM (for goods), in the Irish Sea. 3/
The 'backstop' is needed to avoid future divergence between the EU and UK (an avowed aim of Brexit) resulting in the need for a hard border in Ireland. Both sides are committed to this goal. 4/
The latest proposals baffle me. It appears that the EU's demand for an 'all weather' backstop remains. The UK's latest proposal is for an extended transition (in which the UK will follow EU rules), to be followed by a Temporary, then Future, Customs Arrangement. 5/
There are complex legal issues (relating eg to the scope of A50, and Parliamentary sovereignty) which make the inclusion of binding guarantees relating to the future into the withdrawal agreement difficult. My guess is they can be worked out. 6/
But, there are bigger questions about the economic effects of this sort of agreement. Brexiters will bridle at (eg) the length of 'vassal state' transition, and the lack of any freedom to conclude independent trade deals once in the CA. 7/
Remainers will bridle at the way the future relationship will work. An FR based on a customs union, but not membership of the single market, will herald very negative economic consequences. See eg @chrisgreybrexit's latest: 8/
It also offers no solution to the Irish border conundrum. If NI is to be in the CU and SM (for goods), and GB is not, there will be regulatory checks between NI and GB. They may not be dramatic, but they will be there, and they will add to the costs of trade. 9/
For these and other reasons, I am not sure that the latest plan offers a plausible way forward. I would expect both Brexiters and remainers to be criticising it. 10/
But what have we seen? The Brexiters, once again, have cried 'betrayal'. This is not their Brexit. They may not have an alternative plan... but this is not good enough. A significant faction seem likely to reject this sort of deal in Parliament. 11/
But what other groups in Parliament? Many are arguing that the best route forward is to accept this sort of deal. It enables an 'orderly' Brexit, taking away the very real risk of no deal. It is also said to be a way of putting Brexit to bed, for a while at least. 12/
These are significant considerations. Assessing their strength, relies on an understanding of what might happen in the event that Parliament were to reject this sort of deal. It is complicated. There's a great explainer here: researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefi… 13/
In short, a determined Parliament has a number of options. The question is whether it is prepared to take them. It could, eg, push for amendments to the Govt's motion, for a people's vote, or to attempt to revoke A50. 14/
The irony of all this, is that a number of MPs might vote for a deal they don't like, and which the Brexiters have disowned, in order to avoid the risk of no deal. It seems that, for them, a bad deal is better than no deal. 15/
And so it is. BUT, the economic consequences of agreeing a deal which ends UK membership of the single market, would be huge. Businesses and citizens will 'plan accordingly'. 16/
This is (and yes, I've been wrong before...) just about the last moment for Parliament to assert itself. If the Brexiters reject the plan (as they seem likely to do), TM is left relying on votes from pro-European Tories, and the Labour Party. 17/
This is a time when it is possible to extract concessions. Single market membership as well as CU membership in the FCA? A people's vote (with a remain option) on the final deal? Both are possible. 18/
If those are rejected, Parl should vote down the deal, conclude that the Brexit project has failed, and seek to revoke Article 50. It may seem an unlikely prospect now... but if we are left with a choice between remain and no deal, it is, for me at least, no choice at all. 19/19
