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Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Much of this conference has gone well for Theresa May, and her allies seem pretty happen

BUT three reasons for caution
1. The DUP has escalated their opposition to possible solutions to the backstop today. Arlene Foster saying no to new regulatory checks in the Irish Sea. Sammy Wilson goes further: “no new regulatory borders” between NI and GB
2. Dominic Raab told conference that if the EU tried to “lock us by the back door” on the customs union, the U.K. cd be left with “no choice” but to leave without a deal.

If he holds to this, how does he see thru this:
3. And the numbers of MPs in the Boris speech.

12 MPs were on VIP entry list....
So while many around May are happy with the conference so far, big dangers ahead particularly if EU repeat rejection of Chequers.

An awful lot of faith being placed in Olly Robbins....
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Times exc

What next on brexit?

In today’s Times I do a roundup of what people across Westminster - and beyond - are saying at the start of the new term.

A thread below on my conclusions, including details of “Operation Figleaf”

thetimes.co.uk/article/62a2f4…
1. The meaningful vote is set to be either on Tue Jan 15 or Wed Jan 16.

A decision hasn’t been made yet

It partly depends on whether the Commons sits next Friday and Tories have a three line whip to attend the brexit debate - which is unusual
2. Theresa May wants to focus briefing on domestic issues - the NHS? - this weekend

I’m told one advanced plan is for May to appear on the @AndrewMarr9 on BBC 1 on Sunday to launch the 10 year NHS plan, spelling out how the ££ announced over the summer will be spent.
Read 14 tweets
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NEW

European leaders Varadkar and Merkel discuss how to help May to get through Withdrawal Agreement in a 40 minute call

"It was an opportunity to kind of brainstorm a bit as to what we could do to assist prime minister May" - Varadkar
Varadkar suggests that clarifications, not changes, on the table from the EU side

"We are happy to offer reassurance and guarantees to the United Kingdom but not reassurances and guarantees that contradict or change what was agreed back in November"
Varadkar suggests next 2 weeks key

“This is something we will have to see develop over the next week or two. Bear in mind the UK government has approved this agreement. The difficulty is UK government appears unable at this point in time to secure ratification from the Commons"
Read 3 tweets
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FCO announcement:

The UK government and its allies are holding responsible elements of the Chinese government for an extensive cyber campaign targeting commercial secrets around the world.
Along with its allies, the UK has announced that a group known as APT 10 acted on behalf of the Chinese Ministry of State Security to carry out a malicious cyber campaign targeting intellectual property and sensitive commercial data in Europe, Asia and the US.
"This campaign shows that elements of the Chinese government are not upholding the commitments China made directly to the UK in a 2015 bilateral agreement. It is also inconsistent with G20 commitments"
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Okay here we go. Would massively appreciate some RTs on this thread about the #DUP and their stance on people like my fiancé and the love of my life and why they seem to hate us #DUP18
1977 – MP Rev Ian Paisley launches the ‘Save Ulster from Sodomy’ campaign in an effort to retain the ban on homosexuality in Northern Ireland. #DUP18
1982 – #DUP submits a response to the NI Office in respect of the proposed decriminalisation of homosexuality, claiming that The effect of the law as a restraint on bestiality, incest and rape will be further reduced.” #DUP18
Read 37 tweets
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Tonight at 2200 on @skynews i’ve been in the port of Larne, Northern Ireland with Daisy the cow, who could save the Brexit Deal or imperil the Union, depending on your view...#backstop #borderforcows
in the Northern Ireland port town of Larne, one of the places where Irish Sea checks would be required under EU Ireland Brexit backstop proposal, currently being negotiated in Brussels..
and one of the places where checks actually already happen on animal trade between Sco & NI
Barnier mentioned these existing “Irish Sea” checks as a precedent yesterday - but would have to be tenfold increase for backstop...DUP source said this was building “an entire edifice” on some foot & mouth checks for cows..MEP Diane Dodds said checks on lasagne as well as cows
Read 6 tweets
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1/ THREAD. What are possible #solutions to the threats #deepfakes and synthetic media could pose to evidence, truth and freedom of expression? Our survey from recent @witnessorg @firstdraftnews expert convening.
2/ Invest in MEDIA LITERACY + RESILIENCE/discernment for news consumers - how to spot both individual items of synthetic media (e.g. via visible anomalies such as mouth distortion often present in current deepfakes) as well as develop approaches to assessing image credibility
3/ Recent examples sharing commonsense guidance on this e.g. @CraigSilverman buzzfeed.com/craigsilverman… and @samanthsunne gijn.org/2018/05/28/wha…
Read 36 tweets
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I’m sure this plays well with the Brexit jihadis, but it is astonishingly foolish for three reasons:

1. It doesn’t just misread where the bargaining power lies, it goes so far as to assume the EU27 has none;
/1 theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
2. It burns the last remnants of goodwill at the very point we most need it. By undermining trust, it nudges the EU27 towards the very formalism the UK purports to be trying to nudge them away from /2
3. It moves backwards at a point at which the clock we set running has all but counted down to zero.

I don’t know if Raab actively wants there to be no deal, but it is hard to see how his approach would be any different if he does.
Read 3 tweets

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