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Pat Leahy
@PatLeahyIT
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
The thing that James's Downing St source doesn't address is: what happens after no-deal? That's really the strongest card the EU has. It believes no-deal isn't a destination - correctly, I think - and the UK would be driven by self interest to return to table. At which point ...
The EU says - again, drearily - what about the border (and citizens' rights and money)? At that point, after having won election, Boris can make a deal, or do a no-deal. At present he has grave difficulty doing either.
So from Dublin's point of view, the delay makes sense. Even if there was enough time to do a deal before summit (and they believe there isn't), there are good reasons not to
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Pat Leahy
@PatLeahyIT
Meanwhile, on the day's other story I am told from very senior sources that Leo Varadkar did not promise any move on backstop in return for Boris move on regulatory differences between NI and GB
Also other elements of Downing St briefing to @JGForsyth in @spectator very hotly disputed by senior sources
@JGForsyth @spectator V little expectation there is possibility of any last minute deal, whether there is Boris-Leo meeting or not.
Read 4 tweets
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Pat Leahy
@PatLeahyIT
Following conversations with sources, seems to me that key for Dubln and Bxl is not to be seen to reject Boris proposals out of hand. Nobody believes they are basis for a new deal this month. But EC will engage with London on ideas and London-Dublin contacts will continue.
Asked EC source: Will there be negotiations? "We will ask them questions about it, yes."
Position in Dublin is that Govt won't accept checks as part of a deal. It fears checks more than any other aspect of no-deal, so agreeing to them as part of deal makes no sense.
Read 5 tweets
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Pat Leahy
@PatLeahyIT
Boris and his ministers say they are within reach of a deal. But what do they think in Brussels and Dublin? irishtimes.com/news/world/eur… Not so optimistic, to put it mildly
–The EU side has severe doubts about the British government’s desire and ability to 1) reach a deal, and 2) pass a deal through parliament.
–Johnson’s pronouncements that both sides know the shape of a deal – NI-only backstop, all-Ireland sanitary and phytosanitary zone, alt arrangements to manage the Border, a consent role for Stormont – ignore the fact that this is miles away from the existing withdrawal agreement
Read 9 tweets

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