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Boris and his ministers say they are within reach of a deal. But what do they think in Brussels and Dublin? irishtimes.com/news/world/eur… Not so optimistic, to put it mildly
–The EU side has severe doubts about the British government’s desire and ability to 1) reach a deal, and 2) pass a deal through parliament.
–Johnson’s pronouncements that both sides know the shape of a deal – NI-only backstop, all-Ireland sanitary and phytosanitary zone, alt arrangements to manage the Border, a consent role for Stormont – ignore the fact that this is miles away from the existing withdrawal agreement
–There is a suspicion that Johnson is overstating progress in the talks as a part of a bid to blame the EU when there is no agreement.
Trust is low. EU leaders believe Johnson is a populist and charlatan who made his career telling lies about Brussels. They will not take his word for anything. In Dublin, the abandonment by Johnson of the commitments made by Theresa May’s government is still a very sore point,
*The EU believes that Johnson’s political authority has been severely damaged by Tuesday’s judgment. This will be exacerbated by the scenes in the House of Commons last night. This makes it harder - if not impossible - for him to pull together a coalition in favour of a deal
In fact, the draining of his political capital constrains his options generally and makes it probably impossible for him to employ devices to get around the Benn Act. All this, it is now widely believed, makes an extension more likely, whether it is Johnson who asks for it or not
The time for agreeing any new deal is extremely tight. If Johnson moves towards a NI-only backstop, it won’t come until after next week’s Tory conference. That will leave just 2 weeks before summit. Agreeing a new deal in that period will be very difficult, if not impossible.
Anyway, all this and more irishtimes.com/news/world/eur… and in our Brexit coverage generally irishtimes.com/news/world/bre…
