The UK’s proposal for regulatory alignment of NI, but no customs union, is wholly incoherent and unworkable. A thread to try to elucidate why. 1/
First, it contradicts economic integration theory 101. Customs is the basis, and an internal or common market is a further stage. The proposal puts this on its head for no discernible reason. 2/
Brexiters have always shouted hardest about how following EU regulations constitutes “vassalage”. Yet this proposal accepts this for NI. Seems to me much more intrusive than tariff differences between NI and GB. 3/
Once a border in the Irish Sea is accepted, why not make it a customs border too? Immensely easier in operational terms, because the border is located at a couple of ports rather than a long and winding land border. 4/
The idea that customs is inherently linked to sovereignty is, frankly, bollocks. There are many examples of separate customs territories. Hong Kong is one of them. 5/
I can see that tariffs on GB-NI trade do not look great. But I cannot see how a hard border in Ireland can be avoided if NI has a customs regime different from Ireland’s (which is the EU’s uniform regime. 6/
It needs to be stressed how critical the uniformity of the EU’s customs regime is. Without it there is no internal market. For those with long memories: remember bananas. 7/
The EU did not have a single customs regime for imports of bananas, before 1993. The result was that intra-EU banana trade had to be controlled at intra-EU borders. Otherwise the differences between national import regimes could not be maintained. 8/
Fast forward to today. The UK has just announced its new tariffs: for many products much lower than EU tariffs. What’s to stop NI becoming a conduit for circumventing EU tariffs? Trusted trader schemes? It’s the untrusted traders that matter here. 9/
And the man with a white van. And the distortion resulting from Irish people going to NI to get cheaper supplies, undermining Irish companies’ competitiveness. 10/
This proposal is not a backstop. It is in fact the reverse: it opens floodgates which Ireland and the EU would not be allowed to close, because it precludes any border checks, indefinitely. 11/
And the alternative checks, away from the border, can in my view never close these floodgates. It’s been said ad nauseam: there are no examples anywhere. For good reasons. 12/
I mean, it’s a bit like saying to the whole population: you have to pay VAT, but not in the shop or restaurant. Just tell us faithfully what you have bought every month. Good luck with that. END
