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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 6 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
I increasingly fear that tomorrow's indicative votes process in the Commons will rake over old ground in terms of what in not actually negotiable, and not get round to facing up to the real choices we have with Brexit - this being but one example
Meanwhile from a slightly different school of refusing to face up to the real world comes this
This article summarises the real choice that MPs have to make - the greater the political independence from the EU, the greater the likely economic hit, so take your pick in terms of where you stand on politics v economics prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/good-…
MPs, these are your realistic choices for tomorrow.

(it will I presume come as no surprise that I have received absolutely no enquiries regarding this table today)
I shall be heading up to Edinburgh tomorrow to play sidekick to @DmitryOpines so won't be on the scene, so for me just hoping against all evidence that tomorrow is the day we face reality, not invent more reasons to avoid it parliament.scot/parliamentaryb…
This one is interesting. Appears to be close to official Labour policy, supported by some on the Conservative side, and instructing Government to seek a change in Withdrawal Agreement as well as Political Declaration (rightly). Likely leader tomorrow?
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
There are very good reasons why the same matter should not be put to the same Parliament once defeated - and to do so a 4th time would be a particular abuse of executive power. Parliament has rejected the deal, repeatedly. Government should be setting out alternatives.
Not only is repeating the vote an abuse of power, we have never seen a serious response from Government to most of the issues raised (most notable the blind nature). It has always been, this is the best possible, why are you not recognising how great the deal is?
Instead of claiming vaguely that it's important to give Parliament a say in the next stage, without evidencing it, prove it by giving Parliament a say now, and agreeing a delay with the EU.

To note, I of course expect nothing of the sort, and Gov at the mercy of whoever shouts
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
For those still trying to make sense of Brexit at the end of another momentous / ridiculous day, my take follows. Those not, and in London, may note the Met Office says 17C tomorrow (only 10C in Lancaster though...)
The tracker says, quite frankly, Brexit or not, or what form of Brexit, is completely up for grabs. No deal in 2 weeks unlikely. In 9 months though? PM deal take 4 now perhaps behind Customs Union in likelihood, but with no great confidence...
This is the lowest point to date for the PMs deal though. Her offer to step down after passing the deal makes a blind Brexit less attractive, and indicative votes are showing there may be a soft Brexit majority - but it won't be easy to find for one specific option
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
With Parliament voting on the Withdrawal Agreement again today it is worth a quick reminder of just what the flaws are, which will at some stage mean it has to be amended even if that doesn't happen before the UK leaves the EU 1/
Basic structure, transition period that lasts to end 2020, or could be extended by one or two years, then backstop. Both messy compromises in the absence of a clear direction for future relations 2/
I don't know anyone with negotiating experience who believes that completing negotiations in this timescale is realistic, particularly with European elections and new Commission in 2019, and new UK leadership as well. 3/
Read 12 tweets

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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
Huge pressure on the indicative votes process - which is to move to its second phase on Monday. The challenges for MPs are huge - as are the potential rewards. Thread. 1/
It seems not yet to have dawned on many commentators that the various propositions are not alternatives; but that instead that they fall into 3 categories. Decisions in each of the categories must be made. 2/
First, substance. What sort of deal do MPs support. Is it a CU, Common Market 2.0, or what? Are they content to see these in the PD, or do they aspire to change the WA? 3/
Read 10 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
If we go back to the indicative votes, we put them in two categories. One group was exit terms, and the other group was for future relations.

Any future relation still needs a withdrawal agreement, which has been rejected.
So things like "customs union" we can put aside because that would still need a withdrawal agreement.

What we need is just the options for how to deal with the withdrawal agreement itself.
Option 1. No deal Brexit. (Ignore the withdrawal agreement and leave anyway)

Option 2. Revoke Article 50

Option 3. Confirmatory referendum

And that's it, just those three. They're the only ones that deal with the withdrawal agreement itself.
Read 4 tweets
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William CullerneBown
@WilliamCB
Quick thread about WTAF is going on at the moment with Brexit as there's a mixture of confusion and deliberate misdirection about.

This Guardian front page is part of the problem. The subs appear to never have heard of STV voting. 1/
Logically, every STV vote on the planet should be greeted with the same headline. They (almost) all start off with no option winning a majority. That isn't a bug. It's a feature, and the same applies to the indicative votes process. 2/
MPs are now working their way through a process in which they indicate their preference, the options narrow and eventually it comes down to a straight head-to-head choice. It's less formulaic and more mediated than STV but basically the same. 3/
Read 17 tweets
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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
Easy to be despondent about today's indicative votes process, and, once again, with the way in which some MPs conducted themselves. But, here's a suggestion for Monday, for how to take the process forward. @oletwinofficial 1/
It strikes me that the 8 propositions which were debated were very different in character. It may be useful, for Monday, to separate them into 3 categories. 2/
First: the substance of the deal. I assume that we are talking about the PD rather than the WA (given that the WA won't be reopened). The PD could a) be left as is; b) point more clearly towards a customs union; or c) point more clearly towards the single market. 3/
Read 8 tweets
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Tom Kibasi
@TomKibasi
THREAD

If parliament backs a customs union in the indicative votes, why shouldn’t it back May’s Withdrawal Agreement?

First, let’s be clear: the backstop is a misleading name. In the absence of any known alternative, it isn’t a fall-back but rather the default.

(1/11)
Given the absence of alternatives for the Irish border, and the fact that the withdrawal agreement has no mechanism for exit and allows only for a one-time extension of the standstill transition, the backstop must be assessed as the future destination (see Robbins, O.)

(2/11)
But for advocates of a soft Brexit—including the Labour party—why should this matter?

The problem is the lack of control—too little attention has been paid to the risks of being within a customs union without a say.

(3/11)
Read 12 tweets
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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
Right just catching up with parliament after recording @RemainiacsCast.
@RemainiacsCast Fucking great episode btw. @johnharris1969 guest. It's full on and I think has some quite important insights in it.
@RemainiacsCast @johnharris1969 Steve Brine, who resigned earlier this week to vote for indicative votes: ""The House of Commons has to solve this. This is the last roll of the dice. This is an opportunity for the House of Commons to surprise, in a good way, the British public."
Read 65 tweets

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