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Sometimes when you are making #BrexitDiagram you cannot see the wood for the trees

@tnewtondunn was the first to notice an error with my majority calculations that no-one else had noticed in V1.0.0 and V1.1.0

So these are now corrected in V2.0.0
The essential error was that I had double subtracted some NI MPs from my totals, making my majority numbers in the middle part of the diagram were wrong. This is all now corrected - thanks Tom! 👍

There are a few other minor text changes too
The recalculation also allows me to narrow scope of the messy outcomes on the diagram - these are now for the Conservatives winning 300 to 319 seats (was 290 to 319)

The base scenario assumes the DUP (with 10 MPs) backs neither Johnson nor an opposition PM, so majority is 316
Outcomes (with change compared to V1.1.0):
55% (⬇️ 2%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
12% (⬇️ 3%) Stalemate
33% (⬆️ 5%) 2nd Referendum

(Change mostly attributable to changes to calculation method - little change in Betfair Exchange odds)
High res PNG of this:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

Scaleable PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

Blog post with all the info and files:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…

/ends
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Some changes in the Betfair Exchange odds for number of Conservative seats today, and these have been fed into #BrexitDiagram Series 4 - now V1.1.0
Outcomes (with change compared to V1.0.0):
57% (⬇️ 3%) Brexit with Deal 31 Jan
15% (⬇️ 1%) Stalemate
28% (⬆️ 4%) 2nd Referendum
Please note the new versioning here.

Changes to the diagram structure will be reflected by changes to the first number.

Changes just in probabilities at nodes, the second number.

Correction of text only, the third number.

This is V1.1.0 - i.e. new odds compared to V1.0.0
Read 4 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
OK, so here we go!

#BrexitDiagram Series 4, V1.0.0

The first one since #GE19 was called
Headline figures:
60% - Brexit with a Deal 31 Jan
16% - Stalemate
24% - 2nd Referendum
There is a full explanation of the new Series 4 here:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…

But I will summarise in this thread
Read 8 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So it seems this thread about the green NGO sector in the Brussels EU bubble managed to annoy quite a lot of people...
So I better try to explain things a bit more in a more detailed thread.

The basic issue is this: a Twitter account that is personal will result in greater engagement than an organisational account.
Don't get me wrong - accounts like @transenv @HealthandEnv @foeeurope @Green_Europe have their uses for information purposes - but who is the human behind each? If I ask an account like that a question, do I get an answer? If I do is it from the right person in the organisation?
Read 12 tweets

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